Today marks the beginning of the 2025 New York Yankees’ next journey. They’ve already secured a playoff spot , so they won’t be bidding adieu to the fans by time the final pitch is thrown in Game 162.
But even beyond the mere joy of watching Aaron Judge crush baseballs and make an MVP case, there’s plenty to watch for in the Bronx as the Bombers get ready for October baseball during this weekend series against the Orioles.
The Yankees enter play on Friday with a 91-68 record, tied for first in both the American League East and the AL as a whole. However, Major League Baseball seeding rules give preference to division winners, so we know the Yankees could end the weekend as either the top seed, the No. 2 seed, or the No. 4 seed. No matter what, they will be hosting playoff games next week — it’s just a matter of whether it will be during the AL Wild Card Series or the Division Series.
How long will they have home-field advantage in October though? It depends.
The AL East race
If you’re relatively plugged-in Yankees fan, you already know about this. This is the most important battle for the Yankees this weekend. Perhaps you even read Estevão’s article from four days ago about how the Yankees could still win the division.
Well, in a happy follow-up, the Yankees did everything in their power to accomplish the ideal scenario, sweeping the hapless White Sox out of Yankee Stadium. This is a lighter part of the Yankees’ schedule, and they had to take advantage. Meanwhile, the first-place Blue Jays took it on the chin at home (where they’ve steamrolled all year), losing two out of three to the Red Sox and thus falling into a tie with New York.
Toronto holds the tiebreaker over the Yankees by virtue of winning their season series, so even records aren’t good enough; the Yanks must finish one game ahead of them. If they sweep the Orioles over the weekend, then they’ll need the Rays to at least salvage one game in Toronto. If they can only beat the O’s two out of three, then it’ll have to be an elusive Rays series victory at Rogers Centre. A series loss is almost certainly curtains because I seriously doubt that Tampa Bay can sweep Toronto. The Rays are just about a .500 team on the nose, so winning the series (or just a single game in the event of a New York sweep) is certainly in their wheelhouse. It’s just unlikely.
So much could be gained with the AL East crown. The Yankees are already assured of finishing with a better record than whoever wins the AL Central and takes the No. 3 seed (be it the Tigers or Guardians), so if they take the division, they’ll skip the Wild Card Series and go straight to hosting the start of the best-of-five ALDS a week from tomorrow. If not, then they’re locked into the No. 4 seed as the top Wild Card and will host the entire best-of-three Wild Card Series that begins on Tuesday. This would most likely be against the Red Sox, but it could also be the AL Central runner-up or the Astros if either sneaks past Boston this weekend.*
*Incidentally, the Red Sox are hosting the Tigers in their final series, while the Astros play the Angels and the Guardians try to win the AL Central against the Rangers.
The AL’s best record
If the Yankees do win the AL East over the Blue Jays, then they can potentially be the top seed in the Junior Circuit. They enter today a game ahead of the AL West-winning Mariners, and they also hold the tiebreaker there since they won the season series against Seattle, 5-1.
Given that the Yankees are facing the O’s while the M’s contend with the Dodgers—albeit a post-clinching Dodgers team—the Yanks have the likely advantage here. However, it will only matter if they actually win the AL East. Even if the Yankees finish with a better record as a Wild Card, the Mariners (and the AL Central winner as well) would automatically get home-field advantage in a possible playoff series since they won their division and earned a higher seed.
National League advantage
World Series dreams are worth dwelling on for a moment as well! There are two potential National League opponents with the edge to be determined. The Yankees are already assured of ceding home-field advantage to the Brewers and Phillies, and they’re likewise locks to have the edge on the Padres and whoever wins the third Wild Card between the Mets, Reds, and Diamondbacks.
As for a possible World Series rematch with the Dodgers? Stay tuned. They won their 12th NL West crown in 13 seasons, but not with a particularly overwhelming record. World Series home-field advantage is determined by the superior record and other tiebreakers, regardless of seed. The Yankees will probably also have the edge on the Cubs since they’re two games up on Chicago, though the Cubbies own that tiebreaker.
Much of this will be settled within the next few days! It never hurts to run through the nitty gritty details beforehand though.
