The NFL played three games on Christmas but none of them had much of a direct impact on the L.A. Rams playoff picture. Those games don’t really start until the Packers play the Ravens on Saturday, but then really kick off on Sunday as the Rams face the Falcons, the Seahawks face the Panthers, and the 49ers face the Bears.
Here is how the Rams could end up with any of these 5 playoff seeds out of 7 possibilities:
1-seed
The Rams have a 13.8% chance to earn the number one seed, according to ESPN. L.A. needs
to win its final two games and get help from the Bears and 49ers. The Rams would like to see Chicago beat San Francisco in Week 17, then see the 49ers beat the Seahawks in Week 18, then watch the Lions beat the Bears. That would get L.A. back into the top seed.
Wild card round: BYE
2-seed
If the Bears beat the 49ers, the 49ers beat the Seahawks, but Chicago beats Detroit to finish 14-3, then the Rams could win the NFC West and hold the number two seed instead of the one.
Wild card round: Hosting 7-seed
There’s a good chance that if this scenario plays out that L.A. would host the Green Bay Packers in the wild card round. The Rams last played the Packers in the playoffs in the 2020 season, a loss (and Jared Goff’s last game with the team). Prior to then, the Rams had not played the Packers in the playoffs since the 2001 season, a blowout Rams win in the divisional round.
3-seed or 4-seed
You can’t really work out a scenario in which the Rams win the NFC West over the Seahawks and 49ers but don’t end up with the 1 or the 2. They’re definitely not going to get the 4. I have no idea if there’s some crazy combination of tied games that could end up with the 3-seed but I highly doubt it.
5-seed
For now, this looks like L.A.’s most likely outcome. The Rams can only watch to see if the Seahawks and 49ers both take a loss, otherwise even winning out ends up with the 5-seed.
Wild card round: at Panthers or Bucs
If the Rams are the 5-seed, it means that the Panthers probably lost to the Seahawks and the Week 18 showdown between Carolina and Tampa Bay is for the NFC South title. Take your pick, would you rather face Baker Mayfield or Bryce Young? The Rams would be on the road to start their 2025 playoffs.
The Rams have lost their last two road playoff games (Lions in 2023, Eagles in 2024) but previous to that had a 3-1 road playoff record under Sean McVay in the postseason.
6-seed
If the Rams lose Week 18’s game against the Cardinals, adding a divisional loss to their tally, then L.A. could slip behind the 49ers and the Seahawks and end up as the six-seed instead of the five. It should not matter as much if they lose to the Falcons this week, at least as it pertains to the seeds.
Wild card round: at Eagles (probably)
Philadelphia is not officially locked into the three seed, but they need a lot of help to get up to the two seed. For now, let’s just presume that the Eagles are going to end up as the three seed. If the Rams end up as a six by losing to Arizona, then instead of a trip to Carolina or Tampa Bay, they’d be on the road to Philadelphia, which is where they lost their most recent playoff game.
The cost of losing to the Cardinals could mean the difference of a trip to the Eagles or a trip to the Panthers. One team has been to two of the last three Super Bowls. The other team hasn’t won a playoff game since 2015, the last time they went to the Super Bowl.
7-seed
Although it’s not likely, there’s a chance that the Rams could fall all the way to 7! That’s how wide the possibilities are with two weeks left: As good as one or as bad as 7. If the Rams lose their last two games and drop to 11-6, plus the Packers win their last two games (Ravens, Vikings), then L.A. ends up as the seventh seed.
Wild card round: at Bears? at Seahawks?
There is still a wide range of teams that could be the two seed (Rams, Bears, Seahawks, 49ers, Eagles) but Chicago is the most likely. This would put the Rams on the road for the entirety of the playoffs if they end up with their worst case scenario. The Rams haven’t played the Bears in the playoffs since Chicago’s historic 1985 season, a 24-0 shutout loss for the Rams in the NFC Championship game.
Now compare that to Seattle, where the Rams are 2-0 all-time in the playoffs.
