Series Preview/Know Your Foe: Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays

Houston’s reward for losing a series at Arlington? A visit to the AL-leading Blue Jays? Should be fun, right? Right?

Summarized by AI ⓘ

What is the story about?

After losing the 3-game set in Arlington, the Astros travel north of the border to face off against Toronto for another potential playoff preview…maybe.

Blue Jays Standings:

82-61(1st in the AL West) 2.0 game lead, 0.5 game lead over Detroit for 1-seed in AL
Home Record: 45-24 (Astros Home Record: 35-34)
Record vs. AL West: 17-11 (Astros vs AL East: 15-14)
Last 10: 5-5 [WLLWLWWWLL] (HOU: 4-6 [WLLWLWLLWL])

2025 Record vs. Houston: 0-3 (@HOU April 21-23)
Record since last meeting with Houston: 70-48 (Houston: 65-55)
All-Time Record vs. Houston: 35-47
Playoff Record: N/A

Blue Jays Season since last meeting: When these two teams last met, it was all the way back in April. At that time, Toronto was off to a sluggish start, one that seemed all-too-on-brand for this franchise as of late. A team that entered the 2020s with championship ambitions only has three playoff appearances, going a collective

0-6. Sure, they signed Vald Guerrero Jr. to a massive contract, but the rest of the squad seemed doomed to never live up to the promise once thought. Then June hit. Since then, the Blue Jays are 51-33, surging to the top of the AL. In particular, stars such as Guerrero, Bo Bichette and George Springer, are playing up to their abilities. This is also accounting for the underwhelming season from free agent pick-up Antony Santandar. The Jays did make a few moves around the trade deadline, with the biggest being the acquisition Shane Bieber from Cleveland, who is coming back after recovery from Tommy John surgery. Perhaps the Jays can finally live up to the promise of the past few seasons, giving Canada its first Commissioner’s trophy in 32 years. They’ve somewhat cooled off over the past couple of weeks, opening the door for the Yankees (who took two out of three against them in the Bronx this past weekend) to get back into the AL East race.

Blue Jays Leaders

Offense: [NOTE: Stat leaders based eligibility for batting title and who is currently on the roster, unless otherwise noted]

HR: RF George Springer (27)
RBI: SS Bo Bichette (93)
BA: SS Bo Bichette (.311)
OPS: RF George Springer (.942)

Pitching: [NOTE: Stat leaders based on eligibility for ERA title and who is currently on the roster, unless otherwise noted]

ERA: Kevin Gausman (3.63) [For those not eligible for the ERA title, Reliever Braydon Fisher leads with a 2.88 ERA over 43 appearances]
Wins: Chris Bassitt (11)
Saves: Jeff Hoffman (30)
WHIP: Kevin Gausman (1.03) [For those not eligible for the ERA title, Reliever Braydon Fisher checks in with a .98 WHIP over 43 appearances]

Projected Pitching Matchups (SUBJECT TO CHANGE)

Tuesday, September 9 @ 6:07 p.m. CDT: Luis Garcia (1-0, 4.50 ERA) vs Jose Berrios (9-5, 4.02 ERA)
Saturday, September 10 @ 7:10 p.m. CDT: Jason Alexander (4-1, 4.68 ERA) vs. Shane Bieber (2-1, 4.15 ERA)
Sunday, September 11 @ 2:07p.m. CDT: Cristian Javier (1-2, 4.43 ERA) vs. Kevin Gausman (9-10. 3.63 ERA)

Field Position Starters (SUBJECT TO CHANGE) (BA/OBP/SLG)

C: Alejandro Kirk (.294 /.361/.425)
1B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.301/.394/.499)
2B: Andres Gimenez (.213/.290/.316)
3B: Ernie Clement (.275/.311/.398)
SS: Bo Bichette (.311/.357/.483)
LF: Nathan Lukes (.257/.329/.401)
CF: Daulton Varsho (.238/.295/.595)
RF: George Springer (.301/.395/.547)
DH: Ty France (.320/.369/.440) [numbers based on his time in Toronto (trade deadline acquisition from Minnesota]

Blue Jays Offense: Given the aforementioned prowess of Guerrero, Springer and Bichette, you’ll probably not feint shock that Toronto is among the league leaders in most offensive categories (4th in runs scored, 1st in BA, 1st in OBP, 5th in slugging). They lead the league in hits by a wide margin. Unlike their Houston compatriots, the Jays manage to translate a lot of their hits into actual runs. This is heartening for Blue Jays fans to see some of their core players hitting well after a less-than-ideal season last year. Bichette is recapturing his All-Star form after an off-2024 and Springer seemingly found his Houston-level form after a couple of down seasons. Toronto isn’t much for bag-swiping, ranking only 25th in MLB, but they seem to be fine without the base-running help.

Blue Jays Pitching/Defense: As strong as the offense has looked, the pitching is a bit less dominating. They are 20th in ERA, which is not all that great, but are a bit better when it comes to BAA (12th) and WHIP (14th). They have some capable starters, even before the trade that needed Bieber. Gausman is not having a Cy Young caliber season but can make life rather difficult for batters. In his couple of starts, Bieber is showing signs of his Cy Young capabilities. Even Max Scherzer is pitching like his old ace self as of late. Yet, for all the strength of the starting rotation, the bullpen is a bit more adventure-some. Jeff Hoffman has 30 saves but also sports a 4.77 ERA and will make the 9th inning as stressful for his team as much as for the other squad. The rest of the relievers aren’t likely to offer a better closing option, but they do well enough. A strong offense certainly helps with lessening the pressure. Unfortunately, Toronto’s defense doesn’t help them all that much, as they commit the 8th most errors in MLB.

Most Dangerous Player: 1B Vlad Guerrero. Given the offensive firepower of the Blue Jays right now, there are no shortage of candidates, but Guerrero has been especially hot over the past 7 games, posting a .517/.576/.828 slashline, with 2 HRs and 6 RBIs in that stretch. If that carries over into this series, especially with the projected starters? Yeah, that might not be a good thing in the slightest.

Injuries: Yeah, Toronto’s got ‘em. Isnt’ exactly slowing them down too much (pending the status of Bo Bichette, but even then). Must be nice. Anyway, the IL:

SS Bo Bichette (shin); Day-to-Day; Projected Return: TBD [Expected to play September 9th]
OF Anthony Santander (shoulder); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: Late September (maybe)
P Robinson Piña (elbow); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
P Yimi Garcia (elbow); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
P Nick Sandlin (elbow); 15-Day IL; Projected Return: Late September/2026
P Alek Manoah (elbow); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: Late September
P Bowden Francis; (shoulder); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: Late September
P Ryan Burr; (shoulder) 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026

Intangibles: It has been a roller-coaster of a season, going from potential sell-off in late spring to being in the poll position for the #1 seed in the upcoming playoffs. Granted, injuries and some regression seeped in these past couple of weeks, opening the door for the Yankees to get back into the AL East race. Still, Toronto appears well-positioned to return to the postseason after a banana-peel of a season in 2024. With the AL as wide-open as it has been in years, Toronto can change the narrative about its underachievement with a good playoff run. They have yet to advance out of the Wild Card in the new playoff structure but now is as good a time as any to finally live up to the promise this roster provides. However, could a big playoff run spur the Jays to keep key parts of the squad, like Bichette, for the foreseeable future?

Series Outlook: Two division leaders and the promise of potential playoff matchup. Yet, Toronto’s position seems stronger than Houston. The Blue Jays do have the Yankees breathing down their necks, but Toronto has already clinched that season series, so they have that in their back pocket. Toronto lost their last series in New York, but they are coming home, where they historically play the Astros pretty well. On the other hand, the Astros are coming off a disappointing series loss at Arlington. The struggling offense continues to hold this team back, especially with a pitching staff that is dealing with injuries and injury recovery. Houston has lost its last three series against winning teams, and in their last matchup with a division leader on the road, the Tigers railroaded them. With the Mariners only 2.5 games back and the Rangers a mere 4 games back, Houston doesn’t have much margin for error. Toronto may not be the place to start a September run, but Houston could really use some positive results after a tough week on and off the field.

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