The best way to project 2026 success is by looking at the remains of the 2025 team and figuring out how much production returns on the offensive and defensive sides.
The gentleman who created both Rock M Nation and the SP+ metric system, Bill Connelly, has a measurement called “returning production”, a metric that attempts to quantify the value of production coming back, rather than the value of individuals coming back. His pieces are paywalled, but to me, it’s worth checking out every year as high
returning production (roughly 80%) tends to lead to a 5-6 point jump in SP+. In fact – at this time three years ago – I pointed out that a 5-6 point jump in SP+ for Missouri would mean an increase from a 9.4 in ‘22 to a 14.4 or 15.4 in ‘23; at the end of the ‘23 season that featured a Missouri squad returning 78% of the prior years’ production, said Mizzou team finished with a 19.3 rating in SP+, nearly a full 10 point jump!
The 2026 season has nearly zero COVID bonus year guys hanging around but, of course, with multiple ongoing cases litigating eligibility – as well as the impending-but-not-finalized “5 to play 5” rule – it’s impossible to tell if we’ll ever stop the changes enough to embrace a “new normal”. To be sure, there are still lingering super seniors and, of course, the ever-active transfer portal will continue to make roster management much more different than what we were used to even five years ago. While that could mean that Bill C’s returning production number might not be 100% accurate, it’s certainly as close as you can get in a given timeframe and he’s done better, more thorough work than anyone else out there. Here’s how his formula projects Missouri:
- Overall Returning Production: 49% – 76th
- Offensive Returning Production: 59% – 51st
- Defensive Returning Production: 40% – 107th
Again, as a reference point, at this time last year the 2025 Missouri Tigers’ returning production was 60% overall (51st), 44% offense (100th), and 58% defense (68th). So, yeah, for the second time in two years Eli Drinkwitz’s Missouri Tigers are not going to be anywhere close to the top of returning production in the country.
The current national average for returning production is the lowest it’s ever been, thanks to the aforementioned COVID bonus year guys completely washing out and transfers increasing by 64% over the past two years. As far as the SEC goes, Missouri’s 49% returning production ranks 76th in the country and 12th in the SEC, with Mississippi State, Alabama, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt as the only teams returning less production than the good guy Tigers.
The strength of the 2023 Missouri squad was that it brought back a ton of production to an SEC that was losing a lot of production, specifically at quarterback. In 2024, Missouri once again ranked near the top of the league in production (and once again boasted a proven quarterback) to a league that once again was losing a bunch of production and quarterbacks.
But that wasn’t the case in 2025 and certainly isn’t for 2026.
Again, returning production talks about improvement or regression in quality, not an increase or decrease in wins, but the good-news-take-away here is that the team at the top of RP in the SEC – South Carolina – only returns 68% of last year’s roster. That would be good-to-middling in previous years, and would project at only a 0.5 win increase overall. Essentially, Missouri’s RP is bad but everyone’s RP is fairly low, so hopefully that mitigates some potential loss harvesting this fall.
Here’s Missouri’s 2025 end-of-season two-deep based off of production and snap counts. The gaps are players that were on the 2025 roster that won’t be on the 2026 roster:
Pretty empty on the 1st team side, huh?
Today let’s break down Missouri’s returning offensive production! On offense, returning production looks at the following metrics and is given the following weights:
- Returning Quarterback Passing Yards: 22.3% weight
- Returning Running Back Rushing Yards: 3.1% weight
- Returning Wide Receiver/Tight End Receiving Yards: 35% weight
- Returning Offensive Line Snaps: 39.6% weight
Bill C has said it countless times and I’ve echoed it: experience in the passing game (i.e. quarterbacks and receivers) matters the most. But, given Bill’s updated weight allocation, the only thing that isn’t a good predictor of future success is running back rushing yards. Let’s break down what’s coming back and from whom (italicized/struck-through players are not on the 2026 roster).
Quarterback Passing Yards – 22.3% weight – 41.1% returning production
Beau Pribula is gone, taking with him most of Missouri’s experience at the position. Matt Zollers is still around, though, and is joined by new friends Austin Simmons and Nick Evers. As you’ll remember, Simmons has already been named QB1 for the 2026 team, leaving Evers to be the actual “break glass in case of emergency” quarterback, and Zollers as the “it’s blow out time” quarterback. The main takeaway: not a lot of returning experience here. Bummer.
Running Back Rushing Yards – 3.1% Weight – 78.2% Returning Production
Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts return. That’s basically all you need to know for 2026. As a positive addendum, Coach Luper already has their replacements on the roster and ready to jump in: Xai’Shaun Edwards from Houston Christian and Malae Fonoti from Montana. At this point Loop’s guys have earned my 100% trust so expect one of those two to be Missouri’s next great 1,000+ yard rusher.
Just not in 2026 (hopefully).
Receiver/Tight End Receiving Yards – 35% Weight – 57.9% Returning Production
In case you forgot, Donovan Olugbode rules and will be playing for Missouri again next year. The Tigers lost three of their top four targets but bring in two guys with more targets, catches, and yards then those other guys, as well as a few building blocks for the following year. The portal additions are volume catchers that will be entering an offense that traditionally doesn’t provide a lot of targets. I’m curious how this group gets utilized given it’s overall newness and the tremendous running backs that are old veterans at this point. The types of additions and the eligibility of these dudes makes this feel like a long-term receiving corps rather than an impact one. But, hey, I could be way off on that read.
Offensive Line Snaps – 39.6% Weight – 65.0% Returning Production
Three returning starters, plus three portalled in starters, helps mitigate the experience lost from last year’s line. The quality is unknown, and if spring ball is any indicator, even the returning guys could have new spots that they’ll be playing in come the fall. Regardless, the second-heaviest stat in offensive returning production has a good amount of returning production. Take the wins when you can! Hopefully Josh Atkins doesn’t miss too much time. Or maybe Logan Reichart/Tristan Wilson/Jack Lange are ready to make the leap.
Conclusion
Missouri returns almost everything from the running backs, very little from the quarterback, has some interesting additions at receiver, and has lots of various caliber of starter/intriguing backups along the line. That doesn’t mean that this offense can’t be good to elite in 2026, it just means that there’s enough questions that the most likely outcome is regression.
Next week we’ll check out the defense. If you thought the numbers here were bad, hold on to your butts.
