UFC 327 goes down this Saturday at the Kaseya Center in Miami, headlined by a fight between Jiri Prochazka and Carlos Ulberg for the light heavyweight title that Alex Pereira vacated to move up to heavyweight. Prochazka is a former champion who fell twice to Pereira, while Ulberg is riding a nine-fight winning streak into the cage on Saturday, and looks to add his name to the history books.
So, let’s take a look at how each man can leave Miami as the new king of 205 pounds.
Paths to Victory for Jiri Prochazka at UFC 327
Jiri Prochazka is a crazy
person.
Understand that when I say this, it’s with the utmost respect and adoration. I love Prochazka like a member of my own family, and calling him psychotic is not a condemnation, but rather a celebration of a wholly unique MMA fighter. Because while every fighter who steps in the cage is tough, and many truly love fighting, very few fighters have ever embraced combat completely in the way Prochazka has. Fighting is his faith, and the octagon is his church.
While you may think this is heavy-handed, the reality is that Prochazka’s mentality around fighting is the bedrock for all his success. While Prochazka is a talented offensive fighter, he’s not a technical wizard in any respect, and for most of his UFC run, his defense has been poor. Look back at basically every one of his UFC victories, and you’ll see a fighter who was losing until he won. Because that is the story of Jiri Prochazka — he’ll take two shots to land one, and he will never get tired of taking the two, whereas you will, eventually, no longer be able to take the one. If you can’t spark him out, he will wear you down by virtue of being crazy. Just ask Khalil Rountree Jr.
Backing this relentless mental game is a pile of athleticism, cardio, and durability. Prochazka has as many physical tools as just about anyone in the weight class, and in the absence of a more refined technical acumen, he brings them to bear with sheer relentless pressure. And diversity. While Prochazka doesn’t have the prettiest version of almost anything, “BJP” never runs out of ideas in the cage, or just tries to do the same thing over and over again. Prochazka will continue to attack all levels, in a variety of ways, until you fall or he does.
And he’s getting better. While the nature of Prochazka means he’ll never be a defensive mastermind, Jiri has added head movement in his past few fights, which only leads to more offense from the former champion.
So, for Prochazka, Saturday’s fight is basically the same he’s had for years now: bring your game to Ulberg, and don’t get sparked in the first couple of rounds. Prochazka’s pace and pressure will break anyone down over 25 minutes, especially a guy like Ulberg who wants to fight a pretty, long-range bout. He just has to do that while avoiding being Poataned.
Paths to Victory for Carlos Ulberg at UFC 327
Ulberg is on a monster run heading into Saturday, having won nine in a row, with six finishes, and his last four coming against ranked opponents. After a tough UFC debut, Ulberg put together all his talent to become a legitimate threat at 205 pounds. And he has a real chance to claim the belt on Saturday.
There are three pillars to the combat ideology of Prochazka: mentality, athleticism, and offense. These three cornerstones weave into each other and intertwine like a corded rope of violence. But no matter how strong a rope may be, it can be cut. Alex Pereira chopped Prochazka down twice, and now the task falls to Ulberg, who has many of the same tools as “Poatan,” and basically should approach this fight with that as the game plan.
Ulberg is long and rangy, with good power and good vision, and as such, he prefers to fight a slower-paced kickboxing bout, where he can trade one for one or better. But Prochazka is simply not going to allow this. Ulberg has decent footwork, but he’s not going to keep Prochazka at range endlessly. So, he needs to do two things: kick the legs, and make him pay.
Pereira had so much success against Prochazka in their fights because he chewed up the legs at range early and often, making Prochazka slower to cover distance, and taking his momentum away. Ulberg is not the same level of kicker, but he needs to do the same.
Similarly, Pereira feasted on Prochazka when he would charge in, taking advantage of Prochazka’s lax defense. Again, Ulberg isn’t the same sort of hitter as “Poatan,” but he still packs a punch, and he has good timing. This is the way to win, and Ulberg just needs to commit to it and stick with it, even if he’s not getting Prochazka out of there immediately.
Questions
Honestly, there aren’t that many questions about this matchup. We know how they fight, and both appear to be in their primes. And while I might normally question how the prospect of fatherhood might affect a fighter’s preparation, Prochazka does not seem like a guy who is going to be distracted by that.
The only question for me is what does this look like if either man starts shooting takedowns? We all anticipate this to be a striking affair, but if one man can get takedowns, maybe they lean on that, and it changes the whole script up.
Prediction
The logical case for Carlos Ulberg is clear and completely reasonable, but it doesn’t pass muster in one respect: yes, Ulberg could replicate Alex Pereira’s strategy, but “Poatan” is one of the best fighters of this generation. Is Ulberg? Maybe, but I don’t think so. And I am certain that if Ulberg doesn’t get Prochazka out of there in the first two rounds, the Jiri avalanche will bury him as the fight wears on.
Jiri Prochazka def. Carlos Ulberg via TKO — 1:12, Round 4
