The Guardians are not in a World Series, so a certain number of Guardians fans are playing everyone’s favorite game, “Blame the Manager.” Is that fair?
First, I think we should all acknowledge a couple truths. Stephen Vogt has won three division titles in three years, leading two striking comebacks to do so the past two years. He has led his team to two ALCS appearances in three years. He has done so with limited resources on the roster through no fault of his own. If you would like the Guardians
to fire Stephen Vogt or trade him to Seattle, please, and I say this as respectfully as possible – touch some grass, find a God of your choosing, and learn ball.
Now, just because Vogt is a great manager does not mean he is incapable of mistakes. Let’s take a look at the four most common objections I have heard to Vogt’s managing this postseason:
Objection 1: He Overused Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski, Daniel Espino and Shawn Armstrong:
Cleveland pitchers threw 97 innings this postseason – This group of pitchers who made up Vogt’s circle of trust threw 42 of those innings. In those 42 innings, they put up a 2.57 ERA, a 3.05 FIP and a 9.64/2.14 K/BB/9. Let’s be clear – if a given pitching staff puts up those numbers for any playoff series, you would expect to win that series. However, if we stop the count before last night, this same group of players threw 36.2 of the teams 89 innings and put up an incredible 1.72 ERA, 2.34 FIP and 10.31/1.96 K/BB/9.
Guys, we all know that Smith, Gaddis, Sabrowski and Armstrong were overused. We know that Espino probably saw Caminero one too many times. But, the reason it happened was because it was still Vogt’s best shot at winning this series. He recognized his best weapons and put them in position to carry him over the top. Smith and Gaddis ran out of gas at the very end (notably, Armstrong and Espino remained extremely effective), but this is because Vogt was lacking the weapons he needed to reduce their usage, not because he was attempting to run them into the ground.
Aside from the disappointment of Parker Messick being unable to provide something like his regular season output (likely due to some combination of inexperience and fatigue), I find myself left with the most regret that Colin Holderman was hurt. I would very much like to try this Tampa Bay series again with a healthy Holderman able to take some of the innings that ended up going to Hunter Gaddis and/or Cade Smith. But, that’s something we will never know. For 2027, I have hopes that the team can make Slade Cecconi a high leverage option and that Daniel Espino will take another step forward as a high leverage guy, as well as counting on a full recovery for Holderman. If the group that is currently here can stay reasonably healthy (and, probably replace Tim Herrin with a veteran lefty), I really like their chances of not running Smith, Gaddis and Sabrowski into the ground to try to advance in a round of the playoffs.
Bottom line – this group of pitchers pitched a ton of innings because, even with the risk of fatigue, they were Vogt’s best chance at winning baseball games given the options he had. The one area I would like to see Vogt and the team experiment with, here, is trying to make sure their best relievers face different parts of the order when entering… but this often conflicts with the handedness advantage. I’m not convinced the idea of reliever familiarity penalty trumps the handedness advantage… or the idea of putting the guys with the best stuff in the game as much as possible. Vogt’s moves here, thus, track with a good process leading to an, unfortunately, bad result.
Objection 2 – He Should Have Started Angel Genao Over Brayan Rocchio:
Angel Genao finished the season from mid-August through September with a 40 wRC+. Brayan Rocchio is now an established major league player, while still young, and has to be counted on to put up a good at-bat and come through with a hit in a big spot at some point, leaning on his usually solid contact skills. Brayan Rocchio failed at almost every juncture. He was successful at almost every juncture as a hitter in 2024. That’s baseball for ya. But, Vogt had no option on the roster clearly better than Rocchio at shortstop, both fielding and hitting. I would like Genao to get a shot to win the shortstop job in spring training (which will probably be in MAY, but, whatever…), but for right now, sticking with Rocchio was the best choice.
Some folks will point out that Vogt pulled the rip cord on Angel Martinez. Vogt, rightly, recognized that Martinez is a lefty-masher option and that Petey Halpin is more of a threat vs. LHP than this current version of Angel. It also allowed him to get the benefit of Kwan’s defense in left and the potential benefit of good centerfield defense from Halpin (Halpin did not provide particularly excellent defense, but the potential was worth a shot). Genao has not proven himself against either LHP or RHP, so going with the established and experienced option to take those at-bats in Rocchio was the right choice, for now. Should the team have been more aggressive about pursuing a right-handed hitting veteran to play shortstop against LHP and take the bench role from Genao for these playoffs? I think so, but I also barely even raised the possibility of that at the trade deadline. I can understand why it wasn’t a priority, but the options Vogt was left with led to sticking with Rocchio.
Objection 3 – He Should Have Given Tanner Bibee a Start:
Why didn’t Bibee get a start? The answer is simple: Bibee had a 4.36 ERA/4.52 FIP, a 7/2.4 K/BB/9 and gave up a 12% home-run/fly-ball rate in 2026. In September, Bibee had an ERA of 7.36 and a 4.83 xFIP. He was giving up a lot of loud contact. The team decided that Bibee would become their “break-glass-in-case-of-emergency” pitcher for a game that went into extra innings. At that point, relying on his veteran moxie and experience would be the best option available, despite his inability to miss bats and penchant for surrendering the long-ball… but not before then.
Folks, I simply can’t argue with the reasoning. It’s statistically sound. Now, would I have, personally, objected to handing Bibee the ball for game six and saying, “Give us all you got?” Absolutely not. I would have appreciated the boldness and dealt with the consequences. But, it’s incredibly likely those bombs off the bat of Diaz and Caminero just would have happened earlier in the game. Maybe it would have been easier for me, emotionally, to see Bibee competing and getting smacked around than Smith or Gaddis running out of gas after great performances these playoffs… but that doesn’t mean my feelings should have guided the process. Also, the bullpen game for game six was actually more effective than it seems. Herrin gave up an 85 mph sure fly out that beat an outfield shift and a bad jump from two outfielders for a double, Cantillo gave up a 69 mph fly out to Caminero that would have avoided any damage in his outing, and, heck, Caminero hit a foul-pole homer off a splitter six inches inside off the plate. The Rays deserve credit for all this… but I don’t think game six was a disaster in terms of pitching plans from Vogt and the Guardians AT ALL.
Objection 4 – He Should Have Stuck with Foster Griffin Longer in Game One and Four of the ALCS:
We have now come to the one objection I find to be of the most merit in criticizing Stephen Vogt, and the place where I think he and the team’s decision-makers probably find themselves with the most regret this morning. Griffin pitched 10.1 innings in these playoffs and put up a 3.48 ERA/0.78 FIP with a 13/0 K/BB/9. Folks, those are ace-type underlying numbers, to be honest. Yet, repeatedly, Vogt only allowed Griffin to face a lineup approximately one time through the order. Why? During the season, Griffin had a 2.35 ERA first-time-through-an-order and a 4.41 ERA second-time-through-an-order. I promise you that this data is exactly what was on Vogt’s mind when he would remove Griffin… as well as mentioned above, his knowledge that his five best options to navigate a lineup outside of Gavin Williams resided in his bullpen.
I think we can now say, after seeing the bullpen on fumes in game six, that it would probably have been a good risk for the Guardians to allow Foster Griffin to go deeper into games in these playoffs, specifically in game four of the ALCS to try to save wear and tear on the bullpen (specifically avoiding a second inning from Matt Festa later in the game). With that said, this would have required Griffin, with his issues second-time-through, facing Yandy Diaz again. Griffin had a 4.04 FIP against right-handed hitters this season and Diaz has a career 145 wRC+. Junior Caminero, quickly coming up after Diaz, has a career 152 wRC+ against LHP. Griffin vs. these two players second-time in a game is a very bad matchup. However, if you can give yourself a chance at avoiding the second Matt Festa inning, it is a risk you might take and see if Griffin can work around these two. At the same time, if it goes extremely well, all you do is probably give yourself a reason to use Smith, Gaddis and Sabrowski in game four when they actually got rest. So, I don’t think the outcome of this series changes, but I do think Vogt and the Guardians need to steel themselves to try to get a little more from their starters the next time they make the playoffs, consequences be darned. May fans who watch a Guardians’ starter get lit up second-time through an order in the future remember Matt Festa for two innings and Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis on fumes. There is a damned if you do, damned if you don’t aspect to this decision.
Bottom Line:
There are, of course, other potential objections: should the team have bunted more? Attempted more steals? More hit-and-runs? It’s hard for me to argue that this offense should have intentionally put themselves at risk for making more outs. Should Jo Adell have made more starts in right field? Both Adell and DeLauter are not good fielders at the moment. Should Patrick Bailey have caught Messick in game two of the ALCS? Maybe? I can find good logic and sound reasoning behind every decision Stephen Vogt made this series, even in the places where I might have wanted a different choice. …That’s all you can ask of a manager.
In summary, my argument is that the Guardians have a very good manager, not only of the clubhouse but of in-game decisions. We just need to give Vogt more weapons in his arsenal to avoid another disappointment next time he puts this team in position to make a World Series run. Dolan and Blitzer, do whatever you can to keep this man helming the ship here forever.
