For the third straight start, Zack Littell allowed 8 runs last night. Littell, who was brought in to stabilize the Nats rotation, has been a total liability so far. The home runs are out of control, and there is not a single pitch in Littell’s arsenal that is fooling anybody.
It has gotten to the point where I do not think Littell should make his scheduled start. However, I still think Littell deserves more time before the team totally cuts bait. After all, Litell has a recent track record of success.
Between 2024 and 2025, Littell posted a 3.73 ERA across 343 innings. I do think Littell needs a re-set though, whether that is skipping his next start or putting him on the IL.
Littell signed in the middle of Spring Training, which could explain some of his struggles. He did not have a normal offseason, where he could build up properly. Littell was staying ready and preparing as much as he could, but it is not the same as the real thing. We have seen pitchers struggle after signing later in the offseason a lot over the past few years. Jordan Montgomery is an example that stands out.
An IL stint would be a helpful way to help build up Littell. You could put him on a rehab assignment where he can figure things out in a lower stakes environment. Hopefully that can help him rediscover the magic he had in 2024 and 2024.
It is also worth noting that Littell was likely due for some regression anyways. While he posted a 3.81 ERA last year, his FIP was less convincing, at 4.88 and his xFIP was 4.35. That is likely one of the reasons why it took Littell so long to get a contract in the offseason.
I figured that Littell could regress, and be a guy who posts an ERA in the low to mid 4’s. However, an innings eater who posts an ERA around 4.40 is still pretty valuable, especially for a rebuilding team that needs innings. I could have never imagined that it would be this bad.
Littell has always been prone to the long ball. He allowed 36 last year, which was the second most in the league behind Jake Irvin. Littell survived that by not allowing many baserunners, and not walking anybody. However, the home run numbers have ballooned to an untenable number this year. He has allowed 13 homers, and the next closest pitcher has only allowed 9. It is only the 8th time in MLB history that a pitcher has allowed 13 homers in their first 6 outings.
Littell is allowing 4.08 home runs per nine innings right now. That is almost a homer every other inning. He is allowing dingers at an historic rate, and it is just making his outings non-competitive. Miles Mikolas drew the ire of Nats fans early in the season, but he has settled in with the Nats using him in a new role. Littell just seems to be getting worse every outing.
Right now, he is a righty who throws in the low-90’s, with no stand out secondary pitches and lackluster command. For MLB hitters, that is just batting practice. Again, I do not want to cut bait yet, but he should not make his next start.
Littell’s splitter and 4-seamer worked well for him last year, but they have been destroyed this year, especially the fastball. His fastball has generated an insane -13 run value this season, after being +5 last year. The pitch, which has lost nearly a tick of velocity, is not fooling hitters like Juan Soto.
I want it to work out for Littell. He was very good for two straight years, yet did not get the contract he was looking for this offseason. Now, on a one-year prove it deal, he is totally stinking it up. That must be a brutal feeling for him. Zack Littell is not this bad of a pitcher.
However, the Nats need to do something about this sooner rather than later. Right now, it is just an automatic loss with Littell on the mound. He has a 7.85 ERA and the underlying metrics are even worse. Usually when you have an ERA that high, there is reason to believe there will be regression to the mean. That hope is not there for Littell.
You just have to start with scratch and just totally rebuild how he is pitching and what pitches he is using. That is tough to do in the middle of a season, but that is where we are right now. Skipping a start or putting Littell on the IL seems like something the team has to do. Cutting him right now would be foolish due to his track record, but my stance on that could change if he keeps pitching this poorly.
