After 4.5 years with Keibert Ruiz taking the bulk of the catching responsibilities, the Nationals will enter the 2026 season likely with a new starting catcher in Harry Ford, acquired from the Seattle
Mariners this offseason for Jose A. Ferrer.
Ford brings with him a background of strong hitting performance in the minor leagues, led by his plus hit tool and solid power. Turning 23 before the beginning of the 2026 season, Ford is finally going to get a chance to be the regular backstop at the big league level, after being blocked by Cal Raleigh in the Mariners organization for many years.
With Ford now being the second-highest-ranked hitting prospect in the Nationals organization and the one who is closest to helping the big league club, there are lots of expectations. There will be sectors of fans who don’t expect too much from him and will just want to see him improve as the season goes along, and there will be fans who expect Ford to be a savior for this franchise and look like a rookie of the year candidate. But what would a truly “successful” rookie season look like for Ford?
For starters, projection metrics such as Fangraphs’ Steamer project Ford for a 97 wRC+, 0.3 defensive WAR, and 0.6 fWAR in 50 games played in 2026 (They still have Ruiz listed as the starter on the site, which Nats fans know is extremely unlikely). Extrapolating those numbers out across 125ish games would give Ford 1.5 fWAR in his rookie year campaign, which would tie Keibert Ruiz’s fWAR in his first full season, 2022.
Fangraphs’ other primary projection metric, THE BAT, is lower on Ford’s bat entering 2026, projecting him for an 86 wRC+, but higher on his defense, projecting him for 3.4 defensive WAR, coming out to a projection of 0.8 fWAR in 63 games played. Extrapolating these numbers out gives Ford 1.6 projected fWAR in his rookie campaign, just besting Ruiz’s rookie year fWAR.
Using these metrics, I think it is fair to define a successful rookie season for Harry Ford as one where he puts up at least 1 fWAR. It doesn’t matter how he does it, whether it be his bat that carries him there or his defense, but putting up 1 fWAR in 2026 would not only be a solid building block for Ford entering 2027, it would also be the best production the Nationals have gotten from the catchers position in years, as Ruiz has turned in 3 consecutive negative fWAR seasons.
Another way for Ford’s rookie season to be considered at least semi-successful would be for him to get a full season of reps that better prepare him for the rest of his career. Ford’s defense has always been graded anywhere from average to below average, and he was likely done with catching full-time if he remained with the Mariners organization.
Now with the Nats, Ford has the opportunity to prove he belongs as a full-time backstop and that he can be a positive defender behind the dish. The more reps Ford has at catcher in 2026 and the more mistakes he is allowed to make and grow from, the better off Ford and the Nats will be in the future because of it.
In the end, my only real hope for Harry Ford in his first season as a National is that he becomes acclimated to his new home, gets valuable experience that will set him up for future success, and, hopefully, rakes while he’s at it. It can be hard for young players to pack up everything and move across the country, especially when they have been with a club for 5 years, but I am confident Ford has or will realize what a great opportunity he has with the Nats in front of him.
