The Bears are returning to the scene of the crime. Not by choice, the NFL schedule says they have to go. The Chicago Bears travel to our nation’s capital to take on the Washington Commanders. Just a shade
under a year since the infamous Hail Mary/Tyrique Stevenson incident.
To help get us ready for this Monday Night matchup, we spoke with Andrew York from Hogs Haven (SB Nation’s Washington Commanders site) to get the Commanders’ fans’ views on things heading into this matchup.
1. Let’s start on the offensive side of the ball. Kliff Kingsbury and Jayden Daniels had a special connection last year that catapulted the Commanders to the playoffs. I know Daniels has been hurt, but the offense doesn’t seem to have the same electricity. What’s been your opinion of the Commanders’ offense so far this season?
Actually, I think the offense has followed a very similar pattern of growth this year as last, except that Jayden Daniels got injured in week 2, which stalled their progression. Last year, the offense looked out of sync, and Jayden Daniels didn’t really impress on the field in the first couple of weeks, with a dismal QBR of 31.3 and 37.8 in week 1 and week 2, respectively. Then everything seemed to click in week 3 against the Bengals, with the team scoring 38 points and Jayden Daniels posting a 94.8 QBR. After that, he continued to play at a high level, averaging a QBR of 67.7 over the course of the regular season. This year, the pattern seemed ready to repeat, with Jayden posting a QBR of 51.6 and 20.3 in weeks 1 & 2, respectively, but then getting injured and missing weeks 3 & 4. When he finally came back in week 5, he posted a QBR of 71.8 against the Chargers’ tough defense and finally looks to be in sync again. I’m not sure exactly why the offense (and team in general) has looked out of sync the first couple of weeks each year, but I suspect it’s because HC Dan Quinn is known to run light practices in training camp and rests his starters for most of the preseason in an attempt to keep everyone healthy, so they are still working out some of the kinks when the regular season starts.
2. How have the Commanders looked on defense? What is their weakest point defensively that Ben Johnson could potentially exploit?
The defense has also followed a similar pattern as last year, namely with the coaches wanting to play primarily man coverage in the first few weeks, giving up big plays in the secondary, and finally admitting to themselves they don’t have the personnel to play man and switching to more zone. Switching to more zone coverage last week against the Chargers seems to have improved the overall performance of the defense and allowed the team to hold the Chargers to 10 points, their lowest output of the season. One difference between last season and this season is that I think the team has a bit more talent in the defense, and certainly a better run-stopping defensive line. Last year, the Commanders allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards per game to opposing defenses. This year, the team has the 17th-ranked run defense, which is a marked improvement.
In terms of where to attack, I would recommend focusing on the passing game. In particular, a scheme to get pass-catching RBs or TEs matched up on LB Bobby Wagner, who has lost a step with age and become a bit of a liability in coverage. You can also try to match up speedy WRs on CB Marshon Lattimore, who has also lost a step with age, but plays much better in zone than man coverage, and actually played at a high level last week.
3. Do you expect Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown to play on Monday? If they don’t, who becomes the key target for Daniels on offense?
HC Dan Quinn has proven to be very tight-lipped about injury status, which makes predicting who will play very difficult. I would say look at the practice reports, and if they can get in at least one full practice, they will likely play. As of when I write this Wednesday night, Noah Brown had a limited practice today, so I think he’ll play Monday. Terry still has not practiced, so I think he’s 50/50 to play Monday. If Terry doesn’t play, the key target for Daniels will be Deebo Samuel. Last week, Deebo got 11 targets, while no other Washington pass catcher got more than 2. Deebo has clearly stepped into the void left by Terry’s absence and become a focal point of the passing offense.
4. Who is one under-the-radar player on offense and one on defense that you think could make a major impact on Monday night?
On offense, I’ll go with TE John Bates, who many fans consider the best blocking TE in the NFL. Most casual game watchers will never notice him because he rarely gets the ball himself, but he’s a big underlying reason the run game functions so well. He is both strong enough to block quality DEs out of a play, while also being athletic enough to quickly pull from one side of the OL to the other or advance deep into the secondary and block at the next level, which is huge in the run game. Next time you see a big run play develop, look for number 87 on replay and see if his block enabled it.
On defense, I’ll go with DE Dorance Armstrong, who is having a breakout year and should not be overlooked much longer. Armstrong joined the Commanders last year as a free agent from the Cowboys, where he was stuck playing behind Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. He has since become the Commanders’ best pass rusher, averaging a sack per game this season, while also proving strong and disciplined in run defense, with 22 combined tackles and 7 tackles for loss through 5 games.
5. How do you see this one playing out?
It’s tough predicting these games, especially the primetime games that seem to go back and forth and get wilder than one would expect. I think both these teams will be looking to prove themselves in primetime, especially after how crazy their last matchup was. If I had to predict the score, I’d predict the Commanders win a close game, maybe something like 27-24. I think one of the matchups to watch will be the Commanders’ rush offense vs the Bears’ rush defense, since the Bears have had problems stopping the run this season and the Commanders finally seem to be finding their groove in the run game. On the other side, I think the Bears’ passing offense vs the Commanders’ pass defense will be interesting, since the Commanders’ pass defense has surrendered the 9th-most passing yards in the NFL so far this year, and the Bears’ passing attack seems to be getting in sync.
