Win Probability Added is a stat that measures how much a team’s chances of winning a game are altered by the hits they got, the outs they recorded on the mound, and vice versa. If you sort the greatest seasons of all time according to WPA, you’re generally going to get a bunch of great seasons from great players. It makes sense that’s the case, as great players are simply going to do more great things than most, and then some of that will come in the clutch.
However, there is also some noise in WPA.
Just on an individual game level, it’s entirely possible that a utility infielder pokes through a single for the game’s key hit, while a team’s star flies out with two outs and a runner on third. While the best of the best are generally going to shine through on a season level, a few clutch moments could drag you up when your other numbers aren’t that great. That was the case for one notable Yankee in 1979.
The 1979 season would end up being the swan song for the excellent career of Roy White. A star for the doomed Yankees’ squads of the mid to late 1960s and early 1970s, White was still a good player once the team got good again. However, while he did win World Series titles with the 1977 and ‘78 squads, he started to be used more in a part time role, especially in ‘78.
The would be the case for White in 1979, and for good reason. In his final season in the major leagues, White struggled, hitting .215/.290/.288, which was good (bad) for a 59 OPS+. He only appeared in 81 games, and recorded just 44 hits in over 200 plate appearances. By either WAR, he was in the negatives, posting over -1.0 accord to both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. Those stats are obviously not great, and considering that he did not play in the majors again after 1979, it seems like decision-makers with both the Yankees and around the league realized that White’s time as an MLB player was up.
Despite all that and despite the less than stellar stats, White actually graded out as a pretty good player in key moments, in what has to be the most random “clutch” season in Yankees’ history. If you rank the top 15 Yankees’ plate appearances by positive win probability in the 1979 season, White was the batter in three of them.
On August 21st, the Yankees were down to their literal last out and down 2-1 against the rival Royals. With the bases loaded, White stepped to the plate and was allowed to hit, despite a .526 OPS through that game. However, it worked out completely this time around, as he singled to score two runs. The hit flipped the score from a 2-1 deficit to a 3-2 lead, and Fred Stanley promptly followed with a three-run homer to give the Yankees a sizeable lead. With that one hit, White increased the Yankees’ Win Probability by 59 percent, and was worth +0.533 WPA for the game.
A couple weeks later on September 16th, the Yankees were again down a run in the ninth inning when White stepped to the plate. While this time there was only one out in the inning, this time there was no one on base and not just any hit would do. However, White hit one of his three home runs on the season, taking Tigers star reliever Aurelio López deep. The Yankees would go on to lose this one in extra innings, but White’s homer was a 47 percent win probability increase and he was worth +0.467 for the game.
Back before those, on June 3rd, White also had a walk-off hit. Some of the hard work had already been done, as the Yankees had two on, but two outs when White stepped to the plate in the bottom of the 11th. However, White still came through with an RBI single to score Lou Pinella and win the game. That hit was worth 39 percent WPA and White put up a +0.279 total for the game.
Of his 81 games appeared in for the season, White had a WPA of +0.100 or better 13 times, meaning there was 13 games where he increased the Yankees’ chances of winning by at least 10 percent. On the flipside, there was only eight games where he decreased their chances by 10 percent or worse, and his worst WPA of the season was only -0.237.
In terms of pure numbers, Roy White just did not get that many hits in 1979. However when he did, there was a decent chance the hit ended up being a big one.
