This week’s Reacts survey conducted by Hogs Haven provides a snapshot of fan confidence in the week prior to the start of the 2026 regular season. We asked two questions in this week’s poll, and the results offer slightly different views that, when taken together, are enlightening.
Overall direction
The first survey question asked if readers are confident that the Commanders are headed in the right direction. A solid majority, 70% of respondents, voted yes, compared to just 30% who remain skeptical.
This relatively
solid vote of confidence shows that most of the community still believes in the long-term vision of the front office and coaching staff. Fans are not just hoping for change; they see an actual foundation being built and hope or expect better results in 2026 and beyond — results that will look much more like Washington’s 2024 season than the 2025 season. Of course, the 30% aren’t sold on something – the roster; the coaching; the general manager, or maybe ‘all of the above’. Those respondents are more likely to see 2025 as being representative of who the Commanders really are, and to perceive 2024 as the outlier.
That’s the question that the 2026 season will probably answer for most fans; specifically, whether the success in 2024 was a flukey result of weak schedule and good luck with injuries, or whether 2025 was the fluke, with a poorly constructed roster and ravaging injuries. Optimists are likely to see Jayden Daniels’ rookie success and the trip to the NFC Championship game as reflective of the changes that the Josh Harris ownership group has brought to Washington, while skeptics will point to weak drafts, poor player development and lack of star power outside the QB position as structural issues created by Washington’s front office.
The first quarter of the 2026 season
The second question in this week’s Reacts survey asked fans to predict the team’s win-loss record after the first four games of the season. The responses showed a remarkably grounded perspective:
Visit our partners at FanDuel
A combined 81% of voters expect the Commanders to sit at .500 or below after the opening 4 games. While it looks pretty bad, this isn’t really surprising given the factors at play.
Flukey opening schedule
Firstly, Washington – quite unusually – starts with back-to-back road games against division opponents. It’s common for NFL fans and analysts to project divisional opponents to split each season series, usually with the home team expected to win. This convention would see most NFL fans pencil in a pair of Commanders losses to open the season based on them being road games versus NFC East opponents.
That would be a rough start despite the assumption that — according to the theory that has division opponents splitting a season series — Washington would eventually chalk up wins in their home games against the Eagles in Week 8 and the Cowboys in Week 18.
While most NFL fans are familiar with the really lousy odds for teams that open 0-2 or 0-3 to make the playoffs, the rarity of an NFL team opening with two divisional road games is so stark that the historical odds can pretty much be thrown out the window.
So, while 0-4 would be a true disaster, if the Commanders actually do start 1-3 or 2-2, it should not be viewed as a failure or a sign that progress is stalling. It will, in large part, be a function of NFL calendar dynamics – but what those dynamics taketh away, they also giveth.
The silver lining for Washington lies heavily in the back half of the schedule. While the first 9 weeks offer a grueling gauntlet of opponents and travel, from Week 10 to Week 16 the Commanders enter what appears to be a relatively benign 7-week stretch against a less intimidating lineup of opponents that includes the Giants, Cardinals, Titans, Texans, Falcons and Vikings.
It’s not just who you play; it’s when you play them
Another factor at play in assessing differing challenges and opportunities in the two halves of the season is the fact that Washington is introducing new coaches and schemes on both sides of the ball. While this may offer a bit of ‘surprise factor’ against the Eagles and Cowboys to open the season, it could also mean that the Commanders won’t be playing their best football until November and December.
This could be part of the reason why the Commanders’ win-loss record may look a bit grim at the Week 7 bye, but the likelihood of players hitting their stride in the new systems around the time the Eagles visit Landover on November 2 should provide reasons for optimism that the Commanders will be able to stack wins — maybe a lot of wins — between Halloween and New Year’s Eve.
This may be one of those seasons where Washington will be digging out of a hole in the latter half of the season, but the team has done that successfully before. After opening 3-6 in 2012, the Redskins won 6 straight games to close out the season, win the division, and get into the playoffs. In 2015, following a 3-5 start, the Redskins won 6 of the final 8 games to finish with a winning record and another NFC East title. While the 2020 team didn’t finish with a winning record, following a 1-5 start, the team won 5 of its final 7 games to clinch its 3rd division crown in 9 seasons.
Of course, in Jayden’s rookie season, after a 3-game mid-season skid dropped the Commanders record to 7-5, the team finished the year with 5 consecutive regular season wins to finish 12-5, and followed that up with two playoff road wins to reach the NFC Championship game.
This may be one of those seasons where the team will need a lot of Ws after the Week 7 bye to finish the season with a playoff berth.
While we’re thinking about “when you play them”, it’s clear that injuries and other random factors can also play a role. For example, most respondents voted in this poll before Seattle’s starting quarterback, Sam Darnold, suffered an injury in the game against the Patriots. He may not be available to play in Week 3 against the Commanders, which could skew the odds.
As the new offensive and defensive systems become second nature, the Commanders will be well-positioned to stack victories, build momentum, and finish the year strong. In other words, the kind of rocky start envisioned by most of the respondents in our survey doesn’t preclude a successful season or a spot in the playoffs. That may be at least part of the reason why 70% of you are still confident in the team’s direction.
Bill-in-Bangkok post script
For my part, prior to kickoff every week of every season, I expect Washington to win every game. To me, that outlook is the essence of sports. I’m not saying that everybody has to fan the way I do, but it’s served me well for about 6 decades now.
I read this on a Sports Illustrated article today and it ticked me off a bit:
Next to no one is picking the Washington Commanders to hold their own in a hostile Week 1 debut against the Philadelphia Eagles, with even the most devoted D.C. homers admitting that things have looked better for their franchise in recent memory than they presently do heading into the weekend.
As if this wasn’t already the Eagles, a team that’s split a pair of Super Bowl appearances over five consecutive postseason berths, the Commanders seem to have only barely limped out of a rocky offseason peppered with mixed storylines.
This isn’t where my head is at. Not at all. I’m expecting this iteration of the Commanders to make me — hell, make all of us — proud this season.
Washington enters Sunday’s opener with an elite quarterback in Jayden Daniels who was affected by injuries last year, but who proved himself in 2024 and has looked sharp all through training camp. McLaurin is healthy & motivated and paired with Stefon Diggs, who is a year further away from his ACL injury. With Antonio Williams, Chig Okonkwo and Rachaad White added to the offensive attack, it should be more potent than ever before under Dan Quinn. I don’t see this offensive line as being any less skilled than the one that helped Washington reach the NFC Championship game in 2024. The OL should be good enough.
NFL observers who look at last year’s abysmal defensive ranking and see that as the starting point for 2026 have paid absolutely no attention this offseason. Daronte Jones has brought an entirely new philosophy and scheme to Washington that is about as different as possible from that of Joe Whitt. Dan Quinn has given Jones free rein to re-make the defense without DQ’s fingerprints on it. That includes dramatic roster turnover that has provided Jones with personnel hand-picked for his system — players like Odafe Oweh, K’Lavon Chaisson, Tim Settle, Nick Cross, rookie Sonny Styles and several more. I’m expecting this to be a top-10 unit by December, and I think they’ll be good enough even in September to give opposing offenses genuine problems.
My mindset is that Washington’s 2024 success did not lead to the same great results in 2025. Likewise, last year’s failures do not define the Commanders in 2026. This was clearly an offseason of reassessment and change; that’s been well-documented since January. This is a new teams with new coaches, new players, new schemes, new attitudes, and no interest in repeating the mistakes of last season.
It’s time for the Commanders to prove — well, basically everybody — wrong.
I certainly am not conceding a win to the Eagles without a single snap of the game being played.
I’m done with the hand-wringing and the gloomy outlook.
The roster is assembled and coached. The players are conditioned and the roster is mostly healthy. I’m not personally entertaining any more talk about the sky falling; it’s time to hitch up my pants and support the burgundy & gold with fanatic enthusiasm.
So Let’s Freakin’ Go!
Season opener
The Commanders will open their 2026 NFL regular season on the road as underdogs against their division rivals.
- Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Place: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia, PA)
- FanDuel Odds: Commanders (+4.5) vs. Eagles; Over/Under 46.5
Visit our partners at FanDuel
