LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (8-4) vs. Toledo Rockets (8-4)
Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl of Beans
Game Time: 2 p.m.
Location: Flagler Credit Union Stadium: Boca Raton, Fla.
Television: ESPN
Announcers: Jay Alter (play-by-play), Rocky Boiman (analyst) and Ashley Stroehlei (sideline reporter)
Favorite: Louisville by 8.5
Series: Louisville leads, 5-3
Last Meeting: Louisville won 31-6 on Sept. 12, 1981 in Louisville
Series History:
Louisville Bowl History:
Statistics:
Depth Chart:
Louisville Uniforms:
Relevant Videos:
About Toledo:
OFFENSE
Louisville will face off against Toledo in the Boca Raton
Bowl tomorrow, but it’s anyone’s guess who will be calling the offense and defense for the Rockets. Robert Weiner has been named the interim head coach after Jason Candle headed east to UConn, but Weiner has not been a play-caller in his career. The defense doesn’t have a coordinator, currently, so there are unknowns on both sides of the ball. However, the Rockets have a lot of talent who will play in this game, as they have only lost a few players to opt-outs, even though the coaching staff has moved on.
The Rockets will have a new starter at quarterback in this game, as Tucker Gleason went down with an injury in the final game of the season. Kalieb Osborne is coming off a relief appearance where he led the team to a come-from-behind win on the road against Central Michigan. Osborne took over in the second half, down 3-0, before leading them to a 21-3 win. Osborne went 5-7 with 105 passing yards to go with 52 rushing yards. The offense didn’t skip a beat with him in the game, and they opened up the quarterback run game a bit more with him in the game.
Osborne was a 3-star prospect out of Michigan in high school who was pursued by Syracuse as a recruit. He stuck with Toledo, and he will get his chance to show the new staff what he can do in a big moment. He put up absurd numbers in high school with 37 touchdown passes and 25 rushing touchdowns with about 5,500 total yards. He is tall and lanky with a solid arm, and he looked comfortable in a tough spot in the snow against CMU when he was thrust into the game after Tucker Gleason went down with an injury. He will be the story of the game for Toledo.
Running back is a strong spot for the Rockets with Chip Trayanum coming in ranked 19th in the country in yards per game. Trayanum transferred to Kentucky from Ohio State, but staying healthy has always been an issue for him. He has missed some time this year, but the bruising back has found a home as the bellcow in this offense. Trayanum is 11th in the country in 10+ yard runs, and he has gotten those yards without much resistance as his offensive line has given him space to operate. The Cards will have to close down the running lanes because he falls forward on most of his runs with his 5-11/225 frame.
Kenji Christian provides a thunder and lightning type of combination for Toledo as the backup running back. At 6-2/200, Christian isn’t as big as Trayanum, but he runs hard and actually accounts for more forced missed tackles and a higher yards after contact average on the season. Christian has good speed and burst while also being able to get tough yardage. This duo will get a lot of attention with the change at quarterback. They’ve been very good this season, and they will have to be great on Tuesday.
Junior Vandeross could make an argument to be the best slot receiver Louisville has seen this year, outside of Malachi Toney. Jacob De Jesus went off against the Cards, but his skillset is limited compared to Vandeross. The Rockets have a real gamebreaker in the slot in Vandeross, who has a great ability to make defenders miss after the catch. He can also get open down the field in various ways while also being a threat on gadget plays. The Cards looked good in coverage against UK their last time out, but they gave up 83 completions in the previous three games. Giving up a lot of completions to Vandeross could end poorly for the Cards.
While Vandeross gets the attention, Trayvon Randolph is a capable second option for the offense. He can do a bit of everything as a deep option as well as a possession guy to get first downs. Randolph can get lost in the offense with the strong running game and Vandeross getting a high volume of targets, but the Cards will have to account for him, with Osborne at quarterback. He will likely extend plays and look for open guys, with Randolph probably getting more targets that way.
Toledo has one of the better offensive lines that Louisville has faced this year, with only 13 sacks allowed on the season. However, Tucker Gleason did a good job of avoiding sacks with his athleticism. Osborne is a better athlete, but we’ll have to see if he can be steady in the pocket against the type of pass rush Louisville brings to the game. The line opened running lanes throughout the year, but the Cards offer up a different level of performance there as well. Rene Konga and Wesley Bailey opting out could be a factor here, with depth not being a great strength for UofL.
DEFENSE
Toledo lost nearly all of its staff when Jason Candle left for UConn. They also lost their defensive coordinator to Syracuse, which left them in more of a unique situation than most, as the playcallers on both sides of the ball have left for new jobs. The Rockets haven’t had many players opt out, but they have seen three starters on defense decide to sit this game out, unfortunately. They will have to rely on a veteran group of players to show up with the mindset that they can beat an ACC opponent, as they did last year when they knocked off Pitt in their bowl game.
The Rockets have solid size up front, with Martez Poynter being the key player in the middle of the line. The 6-4/294 defensive tackle has flashed the ability to beat offensive linemen with speed and agility this year to get to the quarterback. Poynter has 8 tackles for loss on the year. He will pair with Esean Carter to slow down a Louisville running game that was excellent against Kentucky.
Micah Davis led the team in sacks this year, but he has opted out of the game to hit the portal. The Rockets are still solid up front with Anthony Dunn and Louce Julian on the edges. Dunn has 13 QB hurries on the year, but he’ll have to step up his game to replace Davis and his 35 total pressures. Jeremiah Peters is another player I would expect to get more snaps in this game, as well.
Toledo gets better as you get deeper into the defense. K’Von Sherman is having an outstanding year as an inside linebacker. The Juco transfer leads the team with 14.5 tackles for loss and 85 tackles. Sherman plays a role that has given UofL fits this season. The Rockets like to get him downhill into gaps to make havoc plays in the backfield. Sherman is a key player in this game because he can make plays behind the line of scrimmage while also being a solid player against the run at the second level. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him put up double-digit tackles in this game.
Langston Long will get the start at the other linebacker spot with Chris D’Appolonia hitting the portal. Long got the start in their last game and finished with 6 tackles, including one tackle for loss. The linebackers will be tasked with putting the clamps on a UofL running game that will likely be relying on the bottom of the depth chart again. The Rockets have a top-10 run defense, and the Cards will put that to the test.
Avery Smith and Andre Fuller are one of the better cornerback combos UofL will see this year. They can both play aggressively in man coverage as well as in zone coverage. Fuller is the bigger of the two at 6-2/200, but they have put up nearly identical stats this year, with 12 forced incompletions on the season and a completion percentage allowed under 50%. Nasir Bowers will cover the slot, and he will be up to the challenge to cover Caullin Lacy. Bowers had an impressive interception against Kentucky earlier in the year. He won’t be fazed by the competition level.
The best player on the team lines up at safety. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren is one of the top safeties in the country and will be prepping for the Senior Bowl after this game. McNeil-Warren does just about everything well, but he’s at his best getting down into the box in run support. However, he really shines in coverage, where he has only allowed 6 catches on the season while putting up 6 passes defended. He also has 3 forced fumbles this year. They don’t get much better at safety than this guy.
The Rockets will be without Braden Awls, who led the team in picks this year. The ballhawk is headed for the portal even though he probably could’ve helped raise his profile with a good game against the Cards. Nicholas Thompson will be the likely starter in his absence, and there is not much to know about him. He has been flat-out bad in coverage this year, so that may be an area where the Cards can take advantage.
Motivational Tweets:
Excitement Level: 8.0
I know it’s not the end of the season anyone wanted, but if you can’t have fun with a Bean Bowl on Christmas Eve Eve afternoon, I don’t know what to tell you.
Also, you know, last chance to watch the Cards play football for nine months.
Game Attire: Red Louisville Football hoodie
Dance with the date who brung ya.
Pregame Meal: Coffee, cereal, Trader Joe’s protein bar
As always, we don’t do lunch here.
Bold Prediction: Three different Louisville players rush for touchdowns
All things considered, it’s been a pretty nice season in the bold predictions world. Let’s end it the right way.
Jeff Brohm Tick Play Alert Level: Red Violet (above average)
It’s the GD Beans Bowl. Why the hell not?
Predicted Star of the Game: TJ Quinn
No one would deserve this more.
Notable:
—Louisville is 13-13-1 all-time in bowl games and is appearing in a bowl game for the sixth time in seven years.
—Louisville has alternated wins and losses over their last six bowl games. The Cardinals haven’t won bowl games in back-to-back years since the 2012 (Sugar) and 2013 (Russell Athletic) seasons.
—Toledo is 13-9 all-time in bowl games and is playing in a bowl game for the fifth straight year.
—Toledo has been bowl-eligible for 16 straight years, the sixth-longest streak in the country.
—The Rockets’ streak of 16 consecutive years without a losing season is the third-longest in the country. Only Boise State (28) and Alabama (18) have longer active streaks.
—A win by Louisville on Tuesday would make Jeff Brohm just the second coach in Louisville history to win at least nine games in three consecutive seasons.
—Louisville is 3-3 all-time in bowl games played in the state of Florida, and 1-0 in games played in the Miami metro area.
—Jeff Brohm is 6-1 all-time as a head coach in games against Mid-American Conference opponents.
—Toledo’s defense enters Tuesday afternoon ranked third in the FBS in total defense (247.8), No. 2 in defensive passing efficiency (98.60), third in first downs allowed (168), fourth in scoring defense (12.2), eighth in passing yards allowed (158.4), eighth in rushing defense (89.3), and ninth in third-down defense conversion (29.9%).
—Interim head coach Robert Weiner lead Toledo in the Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl of Beans. Weiner, who has served as the Rockets’ co-offensive coordinator/QB coach for the past six years, fills in for Jason Candle, who left to accept the head coaching position at UConn. Candle departs as Toledo’s all-time wins leader (81-44).
—Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm has never coached a game against Toledo.
—The Louisville defense ranks 15th nationally with 14 interceptions through 12 games this season.
—Louisville and Toledo have two opponents in common this season. The Rockets lost to Kentucky (24-16) and Bowling Green (28-23), while the Cardinals defeated both the Wildcats (41-0) and Falcons (40-17).
—Louisville is 30-18 all-time in games against teams from the Mid-American Conference.
—Jeff Brohm is 6-2 all-time in bowl games, including a 1-1 mark at Louisville.
—Jeff Brohm is the third coach to lead his team to a bowl game in each of his third year seasons, joining Bobby Petrino and Charlie Strong as the only coaches to do so.
—The Boca Raton Bowl is the 20th different bowl game U of L will have played in.
—The Cardinals have two players on their roster from the state of Ohio in offensive lineman Fred Johnson from Cleveland and tight end Grant Houser from Wapakoneta.
—Just one Ohio-bred horse, Wintergreen in 1909, has ever won the Kentucky Derby.
—Louisville is 13-18-1 all-time in games played in the month of December.
—Louisville is 0-1 all-time in games played on Dec. 23. The Cardinals’ only previous appearance on Christmas Eve Eve was a 48-29 loss to Marshall in the 1998 Motor City Bowl in John L. Smith’s first season as head coach.
—Louisville has won 50 consecutive games when shutting out its opponent in the second half, something the Cardinals did in their regular season-ending victory over Kentucky.
—Under Jeff Brohm, Louisville is 14-1 in games in which it rushes for 200 yards or more.
—Louisville has not allowed an opponent to rush for 200 yards in a game this season.
—Louisville is one of eight FBS teams to score in every game it has played for the last 25 years, joining Boise State, Florida, Georgia, Nebraska, Southern California, Texas Christian, and Virginia Tech.
—Louisville is 13-0 under head coach Jeff Brohm when it doesn’t commit a turnover.
—Louisville is 17-0 under Jeff Brohm when it wins the turnover battle and 10-12 when it doesn’t.
—Louisville has an 18-game winning streak when committing fewer turnovers than its opponent, last losing 31-16 at Clemson on Nov. 12, 2022.
—Louisville is 25-2 over the past five seasons when shutting out its opponent in the first quarter.
—Louisville has won 39 of its last 44 games when holding teams to less than 300 yards of offense. The Cards lost to Virginia earlier this season despite holding the Cavaliers to 237 yards of offense.
—Louisville has won 18 straight games when holding its opponent scoreless in the first half.
—Since 2019, Louisville is 36-4 when winning the turnover battle, and just 8-27 when losing it.
—Louisville is 24-3 under Jeff Brohm when allowing fewer than 30 points.
—Louisville is 210-16 all-time when scoring 35 or more points in a game.
—Louisville is 142-4 all-time when scoring 40 or more points in a game, including an 83-3 mark since 2000. The Cards are 6-123 all-time when allowing opponents to score 40 or more points.
—Louisville is currently riding a consecutive game scoring streak that spans 326 games dating back to a 31-0 loss to Florida State during the 2000 season. The streak ranks as the second longest in the ACC behind only Virginia Tech, and the 8th-longest nationally.
Quotable:
—”We are so excited to be here. Our players are excited to be in the warm weather to get ready to face a tough Toledo team. We’ve had a good week of preparation and are thrilled to be in Florida. Toledo is a good football team and I know our guys will be ready to play.” —Jeff Brohm
—“Our challenge is, how can we play a game at a championship level? How can we leave a legacy of 9-4 for the 2025 Toledo Rockets and put some pictures of this team on the walls in the Larimer building that people will remember for a long time?” —Toledo interim head coach Robert Weiner
—”It’s a blessing. I just want to go out there and put nothing bad on tape. The jersey’s front represents my team, and the name on the back represents my people back home. I don’t want to embarrass them.” —D’Angelo Hutchinson
—”It’s your obligation to the guys you work with year-round to give it everything you have, regardless of how you may be feeling or not. I’m super grateful for the opportunities I’ve had and the opportunities this school and this program have afforded me. I don’t approach it like, ‘I have to put certain things on film.’ I approach it as caring a ton about this group of people, and I want us to go out with one last really positive memory and victory together.” —Miller Moss
—”We’re locked in on this game and beating Louisville.” —Toledo LB Isac Zay
—“As long as we’re here, we will give everything we’ve got. That’s the mentality we have right now going into this game.” —Toledo LB Chris D’Appolonia
—”This is my first bowl game since being in college. So I definitely want to play in it, experience it, have some fun. Go out one more time with the senior group we have and end it off with a bang.” —Clev Lubin
—“I think our players are really charged and energized for this. Obviously with Coach Candle leaving, we had a brick of firecrackers that took off in all different directions. But the next day they rallied as a unified group that was ready to say, ‘Let’s go do this thing.’ And that’s exactly what we’re going to do. It’s a huge challenge in front of us, but I’ve watched all the history of the Toledo Rockets, and the Toledo Rockets never back down from a challenge.” —Toledo interim head coach Robert Weiner
—”If we win, they can do whatever they want. Any type of bean, I will eat it. Green beans, baked beans, lima beans, they are all good for you.” —Jeff Brohm
Card Chronicle Prediction: Louisville 34, Toledo 14
