Martin Perez came from pretty much out of nowhere, including his own DFA earlier in the season, to chip in handily for the Braves. While he was more fortunate-and-or-availing-himself-of-the-defense than good (73 ERA- but a 104 FIP- and a 107 xFIP-), the Braves weren’t exactly awash in non-Chris Sale effective starters for much of the season, so Perez was far more helpful than not.
Given that, he was probably in the mix for serious innings consideration in any non-Sale, non-Tyler Mahle postseason game…
until he hit the shelf with back tightness that hasn’t responded to treatment. The prognosis is unclear, as the earliest he could return would be NLDS Game 3, though there have been suggestions that this is really more of a NLCS-if-we-get-there situation.
Will the Braves miss Perez? That’s the question, I guess. I’m not sure they will, for two reasons.
First, the initial playoff around is a three-game set. There’s a 50 percent-ish chance that it gets settled in two games (the Sale and Mahle games) either way.
Next, the Braves have so many long men that unless you figure Perez was going to be left out for a traditional start, I’m not sure his pitching can’t just be replicated by guys the Braves likely wouldn’t use in the first two games except in a blowout situation anyway. Remember the 73/104/107 line? Well, Brent Suter has an 84/88/86 line on the season and a 44/84/90 line as a Brave. He routinely throws two-plus innings, and has done a fair bit of three-inning outings as well. Ray Kerr’s sample this season is tiny, but his line is 42/95/91 returning from Tommy John Surgery, and he has a 110/106/91 career line. In eight outings, he’s thrown at least three innings three different times. Some combination of Suter and Kerr might be even better than Perez, with the flexibility of inserting a righty in between them if needed.
Where the Braves could miss Perez is if they go Johnny Wholestaff in Game 3 and come out victorious. That might mean eating a loss, or at least an unfortunate pitching situation in the very next game they play… and without Perez, they might need to resort to JR Ritchie or something just to get through that one. But, those chances don’t seem very high compared to all the other outcomes that could happen.
So, with that — how ominously does his injury loom in your mind?
