Tony Elliott and his Virginia Cavaliers seemingly can’t lose.
No matter how the first three (or four) quarters unfold, the ‘Hoos keep finding ways to pull out wins late in games. On Saturday, they dominated Cal for most of the game, out-gaining them 456 yards to 263 and forcing the Golden Bears onto the back foot for most of the game.
The UVA offense stalled in the second half, though, and couldn’t put Cal away despite building 17-7 and 24-14 leads and having opportunities to put the nail in the coffin.
No matter, though. Chandler Morris and his crew drove the ball down field late in the fourth, draining a valuable 5:20 off the clock and pinning Cal deep in its own territory. A Kam Robinson pick six put the icing on the cake and provided an absurd back door cover, expanding Virginia’s margin of victory from three to 10 points and surpassing the -5.5 point line.
The ‘Hoos head home this weekend to host Wake Forest (5-3, 2-3 in ACC) who they are 6.5 point favorites against, according to FanDuel. Virginia is 6-3 against the spread this season, only failing to cover against NC State (when they were 2.5-point underdogs and lost by four), Washington State (15.5-point favorites, won by two), and North Carolina (10.5-point favorites, won by one).
If Robinson hadn’t taken that interception to the house, UVA would’ve been 0-3 against the spread in its last three games, highlighting the offensive woes the Cavaliers have had of late. That trend would suggest that taking Wake +6.5 at -105 is where the smart money is for Saturday. There’s some magic to the Wahoo team, though.
The Cavaliers are -255 to win with the over/under set at 48.5 points, alluding to how UVA has been winning games by relying on its defense recently.
I’ve got Virginia winning, but not covering with a 24-20 victory.
