College football has evolved so rapidly over the last several years, and there are an increasing variety of ways to break down any given Saturday.
Here on Scarlet Spreadsheet, we are going to compile all of the various analytical models to get the best possible preview of each of Ohio State’s matchups throughout the 2026 season based on the underlying numbers and metrics.
The Buckeyes open up Big Ten play this weekend against Illinois. The Illini offer a step up in competition from Kent State a week ago,
and Ryan Day’s group will be looking to improve in some key areas that they failed to accomplish against the Golden Flashes, including third down conversions, red zone production and the rushing attack.
Day’s team still has a significant talent advantage here, but Illinois can give Ohio State a run for its money if they continue to fail in the margins.
Football Power Index
Ohio State
- FPI: 28.1 (Rank: 1)
- Proj. W-L: 9.7-2.8
- Win Out %: 17.5
- 6 Wins %: 99.6
- Win Conf. %: 41.1
- CFP %: 68.2
- Make NC %: 23.6
- Win NC %: 13.9
Illinois
- FPI: 6.0 (Rank: 44)
- Proj. W-L: 5.4-6.6
- Win Out %: 0
- 6 Wins %: 46.9
- Win Conf. %: 0.2
- CFP %: 0.6
- Make NC %: 0
- Win NC %: 0
FPI Matchup Predictor: Ohio State 95.3%
SP+
Ohio State
- Rank: No. 1 (up 1 from last week)
- Rating: 29.7
- Offense: 40.1 (5th)
- Defense: 10.5 (1st)
- Special Teams: 0.0 (74th)
Illinois
- Rank: No. 33 (up 14 from last week)
- Rating: 11.1
- Offense: 33.7 (23rd)
- Defense: 23.0 (52nd)
- Special Teams: 0.4 (21st)
Matchup
Projected Winner: Ohio Sate
- Projected Margin: 21.1 points
- Win Probability: 91%
- Projected Score (rounded): 37-16
Computer Models
Sagarin Rankings
- Ohio State: 94.41 (2nd)
- Illinois: 78.55 (39th)
The Power Rank
- Ohio State: 31.17 (1st)
- Illinois: 7.56 (37th)
- Matchup Prediction: Ohio State will beat Illinois by 26.5 at home (96% win chance)
Massey Ratings
- Ohio State: 8.96 (6th)
- Offense: 68.82 (5th)
- Defense: 45.05 (1st)
- Illinois: 7.86 (50th)
- Offense: 61.69 (26th)
- Defense: 34.21 (38th)
- Matchup Prediction: Ohio State 35, Illinois 17 (88% win probability)
Advanced Metrics
Advanced Metrics Explainer
EPA (Expected Points Added)
- How many points an offense is expected to score on a drive given the current situation
- Value is primarily driven by down, distance and field position
- A five-yard gain on 3rd-and-4 is worth more than a five-yard gain on 3rd-and-20
- EPA is probability-based, not exact
- An EPA of 1.2 does not mean a team will score 1.2 points
- On average, a team will score 1.2 points on that drive in that situation
- EPA measures how much a single play changes an offense’s chance of scoring
Available Yards %
- Measured from starting field position to end zone
- A drive that starts on the 20-yard line and ends at the opponent 40-yard line = 50%
- A drive that starts on the 20-yard line and ends in a touchdown = 100%
Prior Meetings
Ohio State leads the all-time series against Illinois 69-30-4, with the Buckeyes having won each of the last 10 meetings.
Despite now being in his eighth season as Ohio State’s head coach, Ryan Day has only faced the Illini one time — a 34-16 victory in Champaign in 2025.
Prior to that meeting, the Buckeyes last played Illinois in 2017, where they won 52-14 in Columbus.
Illinois’ most recent victory against Ohio State came in 2007, when the Illini upset the No. 1 Buckeyes 28-21 in Columbus. It is Illinois’ only victory in the series over the last 14 meetings dating back to 2002.
As the season goes along the Scarlet Spreadsheet for each Ohio State game will include up-to-date in-season models and analytics, breaking down each matchup down to the numbers and underlying metrics.
