Yesterday afternoon the Atlanta Braves won a roller coaster of a game as the lead changed four times. Ultimately Austin Riley had his redemption arc and hit the go-ahead three run HR off of Jhoan Duran fastball that was in the triple digits in the eighth inning.
Tyler Mahle, the Braves’ best trade deadline pickup will be taking the mound for the Braves against Cristopher Sánchez. Both pitchers were on completely different trajectories to end the season.
Before he joined the Braves, Mahle had a 5.13
ERA in eighteen starts. Since he joined the Braves he has a 1.99 ERA in nine starts, averaging six innings per appearance. In his first eighteen starts, Sánchez had a 2.00 ERA and averaged 6.5 innings per start. Since then, he has a 4.10 ERA while averaging 6.0 innings pitched. If we look at the last month, it is even worse. Sánchez has a 5.12 ERA since the start of September.
This does not mean the Braves will have it easy today. It is a do or die game for the Phillies so if Sánchez starts to struggle, it would not be shocking to see a starter come in on short rest to take over. Sánchez is a very good pitcher, in fact he will likely get some Cy Young down votes. However, on paper the matchup looks good. The players on the Braves’ playoff roster have a combined OPS of .759 against him in their careers.
Ronald Acuña has an OPS of 1.000 in sixteen ABs, Ozzie Albies has a .500 average and 1.193 OPS in eighteen ABs, and Austin Riley has a .467 average and 1.104 OPS in fifteen ABs against him. The rest of the team has mostly struggled, so there is some pressure on these three to perform. Michael Harris, fresh off of a three hit night, has struggled to an OPS of .321 in fifteen ABs.
Mahle has not faced the Phillies nearly as much as Sánchez has faced the Braves. However, he did face them in back-to-back starts in early September. In those combined starts he pitched 13.0 innings and only gave up one run on ten hits. He struck out six to only one walk. He was able to induce a whopping twenty-three ground balls in that span. He did have some luck with a BABIP of .220, but the results were great.
On paper, the Braves have the edge today. It is truly going to depend on if Acuña, Albies, and Riley can continue to rake against Sánchez in a period where he is clearly worn down at the end of a long season. Of course, other players stepping up would be nice too. If Mahle can perform like he did against the Phillies already this month and the Braves can get to the bullpen relatively early, they will be in a good spot. The Braves lead MLB in wRC+ in the ninth inning.
If the Braves win today, technically the Phillies miss October baseball this season.
First pitch is at 2:00 EDT.
Game Info
Game Time: Wednesday, September 30th, 2:00 pm EDT
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Watch: NBC/Peacock
Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan and ESPN Radio
