Well, somehow we made it.
The last of the 2025-26 collegiate athletic seasons comes to an end this weekend as the Tar Heels will travel over to face NC State before the ACC Baseball Championships start in Charlotte next week.
The Tar Heels come into this series rolling. Since experiencing a couple of hiccups in the last couple of weeks, with one loss to Duke and a midweek loss to Coastal Carolina, UNC has dominated their competition. They run-ruled their one-off game against Duke, and then swept a dangerous
Pitt team that may be at the bottom of the standings but could have bitten an overconfident team.
Carolina followed that sweep by taking one day off and then traveling down to Wilmington to face UNC-W, where the Diamond Heels won by setting a season high for home runs hit — four — and taking the win 13-7. They had their lone day off before the series that begins this evening in Raleigh, and then the ACC as a whole will head to Charlotte.
This series is important for both squads, but for completely different reasons. The Wolfpack are in a fight to make the NCAA Tournament, and they are going to need some noteworthy wins in order to build their resume. They are right in the middle of the conference in terms of seeding for next week’s tournament, and a couple of wins could push them up to where they’d be able to avoid playing in the opening day of games. They are in such a precarious position with their NCAA chances that they actually cancelled their game last week against NC A&T, seemingly so they wouldn’t hurt their RPI. It didn’t really help, though, as they subsequently travelled out to the Bay Area and lost two of three to a Stanford team also fighting for its life and placement within the ACC. So again, this is really their last great chance to make a positive impression on the NCAA Baseball tournament committee, barring an amazing run next week.
For the Tar Heels, the importance is solely about position. They are a full three games ahead of Florida State and Boston College for second place in the conference, and they already have the double-bye on lock. It would be nice to win the ACC outright, though, and to do that they’ll need some help; Georgia Tech is two games ahead of the Tar Heels for that spot. That said, the Yellow Jackets are up in Chestnut Hill facing a Boston College team that is also fighting for a position, so there may be an opening for Carolina to make some moves. If the Tar Heels are able to sweep the Wolfpack and the Yellow Jackets lose two of three, the Tar Heels will nab the top spot thanks to their performance against Georgia Tech earlier in the year.
The matchup this weekend is going to provide a real test for the Tar Heels pitching staff; even though they are in the middle of the league overall, the Wolfpack are second in the league in hitting, behind only Georgia Tech. They fight at the plate with the least number of strikeouts in the league, and are sixth in On Base Percentage and runs scored. They will also be a threat to stretch singles into doubles, as their mark of 98 stolen bases on 118 attempts is good for fourth in the league. On defense, the only team that fields better than NC State is… UNC.
What has beaten NC State this year is their pitching. They are tenth in the league in ERA, have given up the seventh-most home runs, and are tenth in the league in saves. They’ve also given up about 70 more earned runs than Carolina has.
Pitching is where Carolina will look to take the series against State. They lead in ERA and have given up the fewest runs by far. Between that and their best-in-the-league fielding, it’s going to be an imposing setup for NC State, and that’s before you consider that usual first starter Jason DeCaro is looking like he’s found his form after a five-inning gem last weekend against Pitt. He’ll be followed by Ryan Lynch, who hasn’t given up more than three earned runs all season and hasn’t required a lot of bullpen help. Last weekend Folger Boaz was the day three starter, and based on his innings pitched this year, it looks like Scott Forbes is setting him up to be your third starter as the team heads to the postseason.
The action gets started tonight at 7 PM, and both tonight and tomorrow night’s 7 PM tilt will be on ACC Network. The series wraps up at 2 PM on Saturday, and it’ll be streaming only via ACC Network Extra.
