The San Francisco 49ers return to the friendly confines of Levi’s Stadium to host the Chicago Bears. Both teams are battling for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, despite their current seedings. These are two
of the hottest teams in the NFL. There have been two combined losses since the beginning of November.
Week 17 will have a playoff-like atmosphere. The stakes will be high in a game that will rival the product the Rams-Seahawks put on the field in Week 16. Game of the Year, part II?
Caleb Williams and Brock Purdy are listed at 6’1”, while Williams is two pounds heavier than Purdy. They may have the same stature, but their journey to the NFL couldn’t have been more different.
Williams was a top-10 player coming into college, won the Heisman trophy at USC, and would go on to be the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft.
Then there’s Purdy, the tenth-ranked quarterback in the state of Arizona, drafted last, and didn’t start until there were multiple injuries at the position ahead of him as a rookie.
Last week was about consistency and staying ahead of schedule. The winner of this game will be determined by which quarterback can complete the big play more than the other.
49ers passing attack versus the Colts’ passing defense
The Colts’ pass rush and pass defense put up as much of a fight as the 3-win Titans did the week prior.
What made last week’s performance so impressive was how easily Kyle Shanahan manufactured offense without Ricky Pearsall.
Judging by John Lynch’s comments on Friday, Shanahan may have to do the same against the Bears, but this time without George Kittle.
The 49ers have somewhat gotten accustomed to playing without two of their three top weapons on offense this season, as both Pearsall and Kittle have missed various games.
One player is an ascending wide receiver in his second season. The other is 10 receptions away from passing Terrell Owens for the second-most in franchise history.
Kittle has consistently exceeded lofty expectations for himself. He leads all tight ends in receiving yards over expected at +156. That stat combines any improbable catches Kittle’s made this year, along with him gaining more yards after the catch than implied. Despite missing five games, Kittle has the third-most touchdown receptions at his position.
There’s a reason the 49ers will give Kittle until 4:55 p.m. PT on Sunday to determine whether he’s healthy enough to play. He’s one of the biggest mismatches in the NFL, and he proves it every week.
Kittle would be going against a defense that allows 7.5 receptions a game to tight ends. The Bears could be without their MIKE linebacker T.J. Edwards, who didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday, but was limited on Friday with a glute injury. Edwards has been in and out of the lineup due to injuries all season, but has started the past three games.
Since Week 10, the Bears are ninth in dropback EPA and 11th in dropback success rate. These are the quarterbacks they’ve faced:
Jaxson Dart
J.J. McCarthy
Mason Rudolph
Jalen Hurts
Jordan Love
Shedeur Sanders
Malik Willis
On the season, the Bears’ defense has faced the third-easiest strength of schedule, while the 49ers’ offense has faced the second-most difficult, per DVOA, which adjusts for opponent strength. It’ll be a step up in class for a secondary that hasn’t truly been tested or threatened in the way they will at Levi’s Stadium Sunday night.
The 49ers can expect to see plenty of man coverage against Chicago. It’s Dennis Allen. There should be no surprises at this juncture of his career. Complex upfront and relatively simplistic on the back-end. That’s not to say Brock Purdy won’t run into disguised looks; more often than not, the 2-high shells will play out like man coverage.
The safeties are opportunistic. Jaquan Brisker and Kevin Byard will jump at the opportunity to step into a passing lane. Shanahan will need to keep them occupied and accounted for. The cornerbacks, however, can be had in coverage.
Jaylon Johnson was a cornerback some thought the 49ers would trade for a couple of seasons ago. Johnson returned from the Injured Reserve in Week 13. He’s allowed six receptions in four games. But there have been 30, 19, 47, and 12-yard receptions. Johnson made a miraculous interception after he was beaten in coverage from about 25 yards out against Jerry Jeudy that would have been yet another explosive play allowed.
You’re going to get beaten in man coverage in this league. But the Bears’ corners have given up chunk play after chunk play.
Another one of their cornerbacks, Tyrique Stevensen, allowed five receptions of at least 30+ yards this season. Not to be outdone, the most targeted corner on the Bears, Nahshon Wright, has surrendered seven receptions of at least 24 yards. Both cornerbacks are allowing a completion percentage of over 60 percent.
A team that relies on man coverage heavily but does not get to the quarterback is asking for it. Shanahan can expect Allen to throw every type of front under the sun at him to create 1-on-1 looks up front and limit Christian McCaffrey on the ground. More on that later, but the Colts came in with a superior pass rush and barely got Purdy’s jersey dirty.
The Colts had five players with 20+ pressures. The Bears have three. Chicago is 26th in sacks per game and 22nd in pressure rate. And this is while blitzing at the 12th-highest rate.
This matchup will come down to whether the 49ers’ pass catchers, possibly without Kittle, can separate against man coverage. Pearsall’s return to the lineup will go a long way toward the passing game’s success. Jauan Jennings is as healthy as he’s been all season.
Sprinkling McCaffrey in against linebackers is always optimal. McCaffrey should have an impact in the red zone. The Bears have faced the 11th-fewest receptions to running backs, but have allowed the third-most touchdowns.
We’re talking about a defense that has allowed a league high of 8.1 yards per play when playing man coverage, more than a full yard more than any other team. They’ve gotten away with it because of intercepting a league-high 16 passes beyond 10 yards. But they’ve also given up 18 touchdowns and allowed the fourth-highest completion rate beyond 10 yards.
There’s one area where Shanahan can and should continuously attack. For my money, the best player in the Bears’ secondary is on the Injured Reserve. That’s Kyler Gordon, Chicago’s nickel. His replacement is a player whom DeMeco Ryans traded for this past offseason and then released before September. That same player returned to the Eagles but never made it beyond the practice squad.
Identifying the mark: C.J. Gardner-Johnson was the player the Packers attacked in their two games against the Bears. That’s who should be under the Shanascope.
Green Bay targeted him 12 times in two games. Gardner-Johnson allowed 10 receptions, four first downs, and two touchdowns. Gardner-Johnson gave up four receptions of at least 10+ yards, including a 33-yarder and a 41-yarder in those two games.
Last week, Demarcus Robinson and Skyy Moore had 23-yard receptions on unique types of vertical routes. Rookie Jordan Watkins actually out-snapped Moore on offense. It goes without saying that Pearsall has a matchup advantage over Gardner-Johnson, but the Niners have three speedy threats they can use to create favorable matchups in the slot.
Player to know: Purdy will need to key both safeties. Pro Bowler Kevin Byard has six interceptions. He’s not a sleeper by any means, but the exact type of player to jump one of the in-breaking routes the 49ers love to throw. Purdy will need to account for No. 31 at all times to avoid a potential disaster.
Advantage: The 49ers should be able to get advantageous looks against the Bears. There have only been three matchups between the Allen and Shanahan since he’s been coaching in San Francisco. It’s hard to get 48 points with Jimmy Garoppolo under center out of your mind. While last week was won between the numbers, this will be a perimeter game, and Pearsall is the type of player who can run away from Chicago’s corners.
Ideally, the wideouts won’t have to do the heavy lifting if the Niners’ rushing attack keeps running wild.
49ers rushing attack versus the Bears’ run defense
Since Week 10, the Bears are 20th in rushing EPA and 26th in rushing success rate allowed. On the season, they are 27th in rushing DVOA. It’s a matchup league, and the 49ers’ ground attack has been problematic for most teams, as the Colts found out in Week 16:
The season-long rushing DVOA remains pedestrian after a slow start for the 49ers, at 19th overall, 25th in rushing EPA, and 24th per game. However, since Week 10, the offense is ninth in rushing EPA and 13th in rushing success rate.
Green Bay rushed for 309 yards as a team in two games this month against the Bears. This is a game where the 49ers’ offensive line has an opportunity to leave its mark.
On the season, the Bears have allowed the second-most yards before contact per attempt in the NFL at 2.73 yards and third-most yards per carry at 6.0 on rushes outside of the tackles. The matchup couldn’t be worse for Chicago.
It’s not just rushes outside of the tackle where Chicago struggles. Their rush defense has given up the second-most yards before contact per carry (2.0) and is one of four teams to have allowed at least 700 rushing yards before contact, per Next Gen Stats. Their 790 rushing yards allowed before contact is the fourth-most in the NFL.
The 49ers are electric offensively with Kittle on the field. He allows them to be diverse, and Shanahan takes full advantage. On designed runs, the Niners are averaging 4.1 yards per carry, with an 11.2 percent explosive rush rate, and stuffed on only 16.1 percent of their attempts to go along with 11 touchdowns.
Without Kittle, that yards per carry on designed runs drops to 3.3, the explosive rush rate gets sliced in half to 5.8 percent, and the stuffed rate jumps five percent to 21.4 percent. The 49ers have one rushing touchdown without Kittle on the field.
As much of a difference as Kittle makes — and it’s a significant one — the 49ers can offset his potential loss by using more tight ends, believe it or not. Dennis Allen has been content this season to use nickel personnel against 12- and 13-personnel formations. The Bears have matched heavy personnel with nickel 65.2 percent of the time. Whether it’s Kyle Juszczyk, Jake Tonges, or Luke Farrell, they should face a defensive back 20 pounds lighter. It’s a matchup they’ll need to win.
Player to know: The Bears’ secondary might be their best players in run support. Nahshon Wright, 6’4″, is not shy when it comes to tackling. The 49ers’ wide receivers will need to be on their A-game against an aggressive group of cornerbacks, led by Wright in the running game. Wright leads all cornerbacks with nine run stops and two forced fumbles since Week 12. Ideally, he shadows Jauan Jennings, as the matchup would offset each other.
Advantage: The 49ers are in a better spot on the ground in this game than they are in the passing game, and they were already set up pretty well through the air. It would be surprising to see the 49ers come away with fewer than 28 points. If we’re doing bold predictions, McCaffrey rushes for over 100 yards for the first time in back-to-back games this Sunday.
He’ll need to, because there won’t be many stops on the other side of the ball.
What to make of the Bears’ offense and Caleb Williams
The Bears will be without Rome Odunze, who has 13 more targets than any other pass catcher despite playing at least two fewer games than everybody else. At the same time, their best offensive lineman and former top 10 pick, Darnell Wright, did not make the trip with the team due to illness.
Wright is their road grader. He’s only allowed two sacks on the season, but Wright is the player the Bears run behind, moreso than anybody else. Starting running back D’Andre Swift has run behind the right tackle on 30 percent of his rushes, while 27 percent of rookie running back Kyle Monangai’s carries come behind Wright.
For this offense, not having Wright is a bigger deal than most outside of Chicago would understand. Wright has allowed only one pressure under 2.5 seconds this year. He’s one of two tackles since 2022 who can say that after logging 250 pass blocks. Wright’s time to pressure this season of 4.03 seconds is the third-longest by any tackle since Shanahan became a head coach. He’s that good.
Add in the loss of Odunze, and the trickle effect to needing to use undersized wide receivers now to block, not to mention your play-action threat, as well as the team leader in first down receptions. This is the time to catch Chicago’s offense.
So, if you take away Caleb Williams’ top target and his top offensive lineman, he and the running game are bound to be less effective. Not if their play-caller has anything to say about it.
Ben Johnson will put his quarterback in a position to succeed. He’ll find a way. It’s a big reason why the Bears have 11 wins. The Bears have shifted to a 12-personnel team with two tight ends on the field a third of the time during the previous three weeks. During that stretch, they’re averaging 5.9 yards per play out of that personnel. Johnson has also upped his use of motion, specifically at the snap.
Sunday night will tell us how disciplined the 49ers are, both physically and mentally. Ben Johnson will put his quarterback in a position to succeed. He’ll find a way. It’s a big reason why the Bears have 11 wins. The Bears have shifted to a 12-personnel team with two tight ends on the field a third of the time during the previous three weeks. During that stretch, they’re averaging 5.9 yards per play out of that personnel. Johnson has also upped his use of motion, specifically at the snap.
Williams is the Yang to Philip Rivers’ Yin. The Niners’ defense might see more shots down the field in the first quarter than they saw all game last week. There will be a handful of high-risk, high-reward situations for DJ Moore. Upton Stout, Darrell Luter, and Deommodore Lenoir are going to earn their paychecks. But not just in coverage.
Player to know: Tackling Luther Burden might be more important than defending Moore down the field. The first-round pick is fourth among all wide receivers with 7.3 yards after the catch. He’s eighth in yards after contact per reception. The Bears throw the ball to Burden, assuming he’s going to make the first defender miss.
It’s also the first time the 49ers have faced a quarterback with scrambling ability that can make them pay for the first time in a long, long time. If tackling Burden is third on the list of things to stop on the Bears’ offense, keeping Williams in the pocket is second.
Williams has scrambled at the highest rate in the NFL. He’s the only quarterback to scramble on 20 percent of his dropbacks. He’s looking to leave the pocket. He has the fifth most scrambling yards, third most first downs, and tied for the second most touchdowns.
If Caleb gets outside of the pocket, the objective should be to make him throw. He’s only completing 25 percent of his passes on the run. Williams will go out of his way to get rid of the ball. He’s a magician at avoiding unblocked defenders. Some of that completion percentage can be ignored, as you’d rather have an incomplete pass than a sack.
We’ve identified the ways for the 49ers’ defense to get off the field and allow their offense to seize control of the game: Contain Williams. Live with low-percentage throws down the field. Don’t fall for the eye candy Johnson is going to throw at you.
None of that will matter if the Bears are in 2nd-and-short situations. The reason you drafted the defensive players you did in 2025 was for games like Sunday night. Alfred Collins and CJ West have to show up and hold their own. You trade for a big body like Keion White to have an edge presence who can be stout against the run.
Swift has found more success rushing outside, with the highest success rate in the league at 52.3 percent on 5.6 yards per carry. Monagai is more of a pinball runner bouncing off tackles inside. He has the second-highest success rate between the tackles at 54.5 percent, averaging 4.9 yards per carry.
It’s tough to get that one drive the Browns had against the Nienrs where they ran it eight or nine times straight without much resistance. If Cleveland can do that, what can Ben Johnson, the same play-caller who schemed up 152 yards on the ground last season and 182 yards in the NFC Championship game in 2023, do?
Bears rushers are gaining 1.4 yards before contact, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. When you see a number that high, the scheme isn’t just solid, it’s spectacular.
This is where the 49ers will need to be sound. If Tatum Bethune plays the run as he did a week ago, the defense is in good shape. If the secondary tackles as they did a week ago, they’re in good hands. This is a defense that went out of its way to shape itself to stuff the run.
It feels like the type of game where if you force the Bears to be methodical, they’ll make the mistake for you. But if you’re sloppy and give them extra chances, this offense will make you pay, full stop.
Situationally, this is where the 49ers want to be. They’re facing a team with six comeback wins when they were trailing with 2:00 minutes left in the game. That same team needed an onside kick even to have a chance at a win. The Packers’ loss on Saturday night allows the Bears to take a breath.
Two mishaps in a half is a low bar for the 49ers defense to clear, but that will be the difference in a game against. Two. Two singular stops in each half. That’ll be enough for the team that has not punted in December. The punting streak may come to an end, but don’t expect the 49ers’ winning streak to.
