I asked two weeks ago “What are your expectations for the next 3 games”. 90% were expecting either two wins, or that we would sweep the three games. Due to the klunker in Pittsburgh, we will now have to go to KC
and win, if we are going to be correct about our prognostications. We do have the advantage of the bye week and seeing KC have a tough interdivision game with Denver this week.
I do not think that the events of the last two weeks have seen many (probably a few) ready to jump ship. Some weaknesses have been exposed, we are no longer being included in all of the top 5 power rankings, and the words unstoppable and historic are no longer being uttered. We have been punched in the nose, now we have to see how we bounce back from a punch in the nose. Luckily, we get a week to see the doctor, get the nose set, and hopefully start breathing normally again.
Even with the Chiefs midland record of 5 – 4, a win in their building will carry some weight. It would be another conference win and provide a sweep of the AFC West. The West has 22 wins, which would make them right behind the NFC West’s 23 wins, for the most of any division. It could also help boot them from the tourney that they have owned since before Mahomes and Kelcee were household names, and Manning level pitch men. A loss sees the chances of us keeping the #1 seed take a hit and see the national narrative use the pretender label more often than that of contender.
After the Chiefs, we’ll have 6 games remaining. They are the ones after Thanksgiving, which gain “real importance” status. I’m not going to argue how a late season game is more important than an early one, since they all only count as one game, but I get the gist of the sentiment. Our division will definitely be decided during that stretch, with 4 divisional games against the 2nd and 3rd place teams in the division. We hold a two game lead over the Jekyll and Hyde Jags and a three game lead over the slow out-of-the-gate Texans.
It looks to me like we can end up with three types of regular seasons as we move forward.
A win over the Chiefs, sets us up for an awesome season and possibly a #1 seed. A loss to the Chiefs, but holding of serve against the division foes, sees us win the South and host a game. Most of us have consistently said that winning the division and a playoff game would allow us to label this season as a success. The third option sees a collapse that results in the “limp in”, or even worse, the “What happened? Blow this s**t up!” mantra that has been too familiar lately.
With two weeks to have the best chance to make option one a reality, what needs to be the focus, leading into the Chiefs game? Some options might be:
Come up with a better plan for when a team sends more players than what we have in protection. Hot reads, draws, and screen passes have long been counters to teams who want to blitz. I thought that Jones was masterful early in the season in knowing where he was going, before pressure got to him. It now looks like teams are also taking that option away via coverage or by batting quick hitters down. It always appeared that there was a plan on each play, but I have not consistently seen that from Shane or Jones over the last two games.
I thought we did a good job of establishing the run early in the game last week and I like the idea of letting the big guys get a chance to wear down the DL and squash the smaller guys. We had Jones under center for a lot of those plays, which I think serves us well. On the opening drive, we were following that script, but after a bad spot put us at 3rd and 2, rather than getting the first down or being a QB sneak away from moving the chains, MAC and Downs were unable to pull down a pass, leading to us turning it over on downs. I will say that against some teams, we need to either trust the kicker, or go get one that you do trust. Points could be at a premium vs the remaining teams on the schedule.
Lastly, we could use our versatility to attack certain personnel groups, via the no huddle. With Warren, Pierce and Pittman being good blockers and receivers, and JT’s improvement in the passing game, might we introduce a chunk of playbook that doesn’t need substitutions? Making defenses, particularly linemen, stay on the field can wear them down and slow the rush as well. I sometimes feel that when we use extra TEs, we weaken our best 11. Jones has a good command (maybe better than good) of the playbook and knows what he is looking for when reading a defense, so let him call some plays.
I realize that all of my focus refers to the offense. It is not like the defense can stand pat, especially with a new piece that has “a very particular set of skills”, but getting players healthy might be the most important aspect to an improved defense. I’m hoping that Lou has been waiting for his full compliment of weapons to unleash the best version of our defense. I would guess we could agree that we like what we have seen better than what Bradley’s defense’s looked like, but we’d also like to some Mad Scientist magic.
I’ve been critical our guys taking a full week off in the past. We’ve had later bye weeks while being right in the playoff mix, so I wondered out loud why at least some of that time was not spent at the complex. I am generally reminded rather vigorously that they really need the rest. So, I have backed off of that request. However, I would still get warm and fuzzy if DJ talked his troops into coming in to look at film to try and clean up some things. I’m sure Steichen would come in, if it was spearheaded by someone else.
The poll site we use is experiencing technical difficulties, but I’d like to know what you think is the best use our time during the bye week and how do we take down the Chiefs?
