Josh Naylor leads the Mariners in hits and that’s disappointing.
Naylor picked up two more hits on Wednesday to give him nine since the All-Star break. He’s reached base safely in all 14 games since July 4, collecting 17 hits in 53 at bats. He now has 98 hits on the season — one more than Randy Arozarena for most on the Mariners. In fact, Naylor is on pace to match his season-best hit total (160) from last year.
But Naylor is doing this in what’s otherwise the worst season of his career. His 99 wRC+
would be his lowest ever mark in a full season (and an unfortunate departure from the 118, 128, 118, 128 pattern that was brewing since 2022). Why? Well, Naylor has displayed hardly any power — 77 of his hits so far this year have been singles. He’s picked up just 13 doubles and eight homers, and his .098 ISO is one of the 10 lowest marks for a first baseman this century (though Vladimir Guerrero Jr. holds the lowest mark this year).
This isn’t too-too surprising. Naylor, even at his best, has never been the prototypical slugger, working counts and hunting three true outcomes. I’ve often described him as more of a slasher: highly aggressive with a loose conception of the strike zone, trying to beat the pitcher to the punch. It’s an approach that’s generally worked for him, but one that typically limits him to the back end of the top 50 hitters in the league, which is fine.
What is surprising is the extent of Naylor’s power outage this year:
The “why” is a bit tricky here. Not much about Naylor’s approach has changed. He’s as pesky as ever and has even improved on some elements of that slasher approached — his whiff rate is the lowest of his career. One might even say this has been a pretty good year for the slap-hitting element of his game. There’s a reason he’s leading the team in hits.
The issue is where he used to supplement his slap hitting with the occasional barrel, he’s now all slap, no gap. His hard hit rate is down five points from last year, and his barrel rate is at its lowest-ever mark. The next chart shows where in the zone his power has gone compared to 2025:
It’s mostly missing from that upper-third part of the zone. This is interesting. As I wrote last year, Naylor excels at hitting the top rail. He has great extension and a level swing and can swat the up-and-away pitch with authority. Or at least, he had that ability in the past. This year, he’s not squaring up those pitches. That’s what makes this next plot notable:
Naylor’s swing has gotten steeper, especially at the top of the zone. This isn’t always a smoking gun, but it does imply something about his swing is different. It tracks that he’s been far more likely to get under pitches and pop out, and he’s otherwise making tons of weak contact.
Will he snap out of it? I’m not sure. I don’t see any leading indicators in his bat speed or timing metrics to suggest this is the end. He doesn’t seem to be suddenly accelerating down the aging curve. He just turned 29 last month. I might be concerned if he was whiffing a bunch more now, but if anything he’s done the opposite. To me, this seems like a slump — sorry to get technical. Whether it’s his mechanics or timing or joie de vivre, something is clearly off and has been most of the year. I don’t know that there’s a satisfying explanation beyond hitting in the majors is difficult.
There’s a bit more than two months left in the season, and a bit more than 200 plate appearances to come. There’s still time for a late power surge.
