Remember a week ago when things looked to be heading in the right direction for the Cowboys? Man, that feels like a decade ago. The Cowboys’ most recent loss to the Panthers was demoralizing, if only because
the defense reverted back to its worst form and simultaneously wasted a beautiful offensive performance, most notably for George Pickens, in a losing effort.
That begs the question: was this loss as catastrophic as it felt? Let’s take a look at the analytics, where strength of schedule adjustments are starting to reshape how we evaluate each team.
The offense took a minor step back, partially impacted by the adjustments for having faced several poor defenses thus far, but Dallas remains an offensive juggernaut. Their special teams is also maintaining a high level of play, even with top returner KaVontae Turpin out.
The defense, on the other hand, is just awful. They’re still in 31st, but only barely. The Cowboys are getting very close to being dead last in DVOA, especially given the caliber of quarterbacks they’ve faced so far this season.
The EPA-based team tiers make it even more obvious: Dallas has the best offense in the league and the worst defense in the league. There’s really no other way to put it, as this team could not be more polar opposites between their two units.
What does it mean for the team as a whole? Take note of where the other NFC East teams are: the Eagles are just below average in both, the Commanders are largely being carried by their offense, and the Giants are still treading water. In other words, the Cowboys are still very much alive in the division race, but something has to change on defense.
Offense
Let’s start with the positives: the offense. Brian Schottenheimer has to be feeling good about himself, as he’s called multiple great games in a row. Dak Prescott is playing perhaps his best football ever and, for what feels like the first time ever, the offense is exceeding expectations even with a star player out.
CeeDee Lamb figures to return this week, as do Turpin and Tyler Booker, which should only help the offense continue to pour it on. That’s perfect timing, because the Cowboys may very well need to score 40+ every game just to win.
Not only does Dak Prescott look like he did back in 2023, the year he finished second in MVP voting, but he almost looks better. His numbers technically haven’t surpassed where he was at this point in 2023, but the numbers also don’t take into account the lack of CeeDee Lamb.
In the three games Prescott has played since Lamb went down, he leads the league in EPA/play. For the season, Prescott is also third in EPA/play on third down, as well as third in EPA/play when under pressure. He’s been tearing up defenses every which way, but especially in high leverage moments.
The offensive line took a slight step back this week, particularly in the run blocking department. Much of that has to do with the fact that backups Brock Hoffman and T.J. Bass were routinely going up against Derrick Brown, one of the best interior run stuffers in the league.
As a whole, though, this unit is still doing a really good job. Tyler Booker’s impending return should only help things get better, especially on the ground. Booker’s work as a puller in Klayton Adams’ diverse run scheme was a big part of the Cowboys’ early rushing success.
Defense
Now that we’ve gotten the positives out of the way, it’s time to look at the defense, and boy is it bad. The one saving grace thus far had been a run defense that was at least decent. Gone are those days, as Dallas is right back at the bottom in run defense after two straight weeks giving up six or more runs of 10+ yards.
The pass defense continues to be awful, too. The pass rush actually improved in pressure rate this week, but it hardly means anything when they’re 26th in sacks while giving up the second-most yards of separation at the catch point. In short: guys are getting to the quarterback, but not in time to prevent said quarterback from finding a wide open receiver.
There is, quite literally, no positive to take away from this chart. There are only three players giving up a sub-100 passer rating right now: Kenneth Murray just barely misses out on triple digits despite giving up the fifth-most yards after catch for any linebacker; Reddy Steward has been solid but is still giving up a staggeringly high 90.5% completion rate; and Damone Clark hasn’t been targeted since Week 3 against the Bears.
The coverage unit for the Cowboys has been absolutely dreadful. More concerning is that it doesn’t seem capable of help: Dallas is actually giving up 0.3 yard of average separation at the catch point more when they get no pressure at all than with pressure. Translation: it’s bad. Very bad.
