Iowa came up on the losing end against Oregon a week ago in the rain and watched their College Football Playoff hopes wash away. Now they hit the road to face off with another former PAC-12 member.
Much
like a week ago, the Hawkeyes are 6.5-point underdogs in this one according to FanDuel Sportsbook. And much like a week ago, heavy rain is expected in this one. Despite the weather forecast, the over/under for this one is pretty high. It opened at 49.5 total points, but has dipped modestly as the forecast worsened throughout the week, settling at 48.5 points as of Friday morning. That gives us an implied final score of USC 27.5, Iowa 21.
Here at The Pants, we are well off the line, and definitely on the under. Our consensus score is Iowa 22.8, USC 22.6, so we’re definitely expecting this to be a very, very, close game.
We’re looking to get back to even on the year with a big day today. A week ago, we went 1-1 with our call of Iowa to cover and the over. That moves us to 8-10 on the year.
Here’s a look at our individual predictions for Saturday.
JPinIC
Much like a week ago, I could see this one going a couple different ways. On its surface, it’s easy to say this is a potent USC offense and Iowa will struggle to slow them down. The Hawkeye offense didn’t light the world on fire against Oregon and so naturally they’re going to get run off the field in LA.
Just like last time these two teams squared off (insert eye roll here).
But that completely discounts a few things. For starters, Iowa just squared off with Oregon in conditions very similar to what they’ll see on Saturday and held the Ducks to 112 passing yards. Oregon is not USC, but it was more than 100 yards below their season average. You can say that was the weather or injuries, but USC will be playing in similar weather and you could just as easily say it was Iowa’s top-5 passing defense nationally.
Oh, and Iowa’s miserable offense out-passed Oregon in that matchup. That Oregon defense that is also top-5 nationally and significantly better than USC’s. And where the Trojans really struggle? Rush defense.
This feels like a game where the world has written Iowa off, including a fanbase snakebit by travels west for two decades, but the Hawkeyes show up in a way nobody expected. I think we get multiple rushing scores and enough of defense for Iowa to emerge victorious.
Iowa 30, USC 27
Greg Hollingsworth
I hate this matchup, I hate this location, and I hate that USC doesn’t have to come play at Kinnick at a time where temps should be in the 40s at kickoff (though it looks like it should be pretty nice in Iowa City this weekend, good time to get those Christmas lights up, just maybe don’t turn them on until Black Friday).
USC is a very good offensive football team, Iowa is a very good defensive football team. Iowa has a below average offense, and USC has an average defense. Throw in a 2 hour time shift for Hawkeye body clocks (thank the football gods that this isn’t an 11am Pacific kick) and the terrible, horrible, no good, very bad history of Kirk Ferentz coached teams playing west of the Central time zone and you’ve got a recipe that doesn’t look that great for Iowa.
All of that being said, this team is not going to be licking their wounds when they walk into the Coliseum on Saturday. They just took one of the best teams in the country (USC’s next opponent) to the brink and played the #2 team as close as any other team aside from Penn State (I really thought they were going to get the Hoosiers last week, that was one helluva catch). USC struggled to get going against Northwestern last week and Iowa is much, much, better than the Wildcats. Also, it rained last night in LA, it’s going to rain tomorrow night in LA, and it’s going to rain on Saturday in LA. The Coliseum still has a natural grass field, so it’s going to be sloppy, which screams run heavy and low scoring. This Iowa team knows that they can play with anyone, anywhere, anytime, and I think that they’re going to be itching to prove it.
Iowa 20, USC 17
Matt Reisener
I give Iowa very little chance to win this game. This assessment honestly has nothing to do with the Xs and Os, as I actually think Iowa matches up very well against USC. The Trojan defense has struggled to stop the run at times this year, which plays right into Iowa’s strength. USC has a dynamic passing attack, but Iowa has allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the nation this year and is top five in opposing pass yards and passer rating, meaning they have as a good as shot as any team at holding Maiava in check. Add in the fact that a rainy weather forecast likely favors Iowa’s more physical style of play, and it’s easy to draw up the script for a Hawkeye victory.
The problem is that Iowa is playing this game on the road on the West Coast. The last time Iowa won a regular season game played in the Pacific time zone? 1987. Granted, we’re working with a fairly small sample size, as West Coast trips haven’t been super common for Iowa of late. But some of these losses were BRUTAL. The 2004 Hawkeye squad, one of Kirk Ferentz’s best teams, lost to Arizona State 44-7—and that was BEFORE we ran out of scholarship running backs! In 2010, #9 Iowa lost to a 7-6 Arizona team in a game in which they surrendered a pick-six and a 100-yard kick return. And who could forget last year’s embarrassing loss to a DeShaun Foster-coached UCLA team in which it allowed the worst rushing offense in the country to run for 211 yards? Great Hawkeye teams have faceplanted in these types of games, and good Hawkeye teams have lost to opponents far worse than the 2025 Trojans. Iowa will benefit from not having to play this game at night, which should make the game feel less bizarre for the players’ body clocks. But until I see Iowa win literally one of these regular season games in my lifetime, I’m not getting my hopes up.
USC 24, Iowa 13
GingerHawk
I’ve waffled back and forth on this game since Atticus Sappington’s kick went through the uprights last week. On one hand you have an extremely talented offense on the USC side, especially through the air. Seeing Iowa’s defense shredded against the Ducks on the ground certainly dents my confidence. On the other hand, most of that damage was done on the ground. On the other hand USC’s defense is not Oregon’s, so I think the Hawks can be more physical with them and have greater success in the run game this time around. With consistent rain expected for the second week in a row I think that benefits what Iowa wants to do moving the ball than what USC does.
Iowa has proven they can compete with some of the country’s best teams this year and this squad doesn’t strike me as the kind that would pack it in just because the CFP is off the table. It’s redundant to say what many already have that this team echoes the 2008 squad but it really feels appropriate. They’re playing for each other now and I think it’ll pay dividends. It’ll be another grind but this week they get the defensive stop they couldn’t get last Saturday.
Iowa 27, USC 24
mattcabel
Because I am a masochist and because I have watched Iowa football under Kirk Ferentz for far too long, I am 100% in the camp that Iowa will come out and look the best it has in all 3 phases of the game this weekend, and we’ll once again be forced to ask what could have been. We just have never really seen the rails completely fall off a Kirk Ferentz team, even when there’s “nothing” left to play for, so that’s what I’m expecting here. A complete downfall certainly is a possibility, but an unlikely one for sure.
Iowa 24, USC 21
Consensus: Iowa 23, USC 22
So there you have it – we’re expecting Iowa to pull out a squeaker in the Coliseum (with a truly interesting score, though not a scorigami sadly – there were actually 2 23-22 games in 2024 alone).
How about you, Hawkeye fans? Let’s hear those predictions!
