It’s hard to believe, but the college football regular season is one-third of the way done. While subjective rankings like the AP Poll continue to be a joke this early into the season, the more advanced metrics are starting to gain enough data to mean something.
Today, let’s see where each Big Ten program’s ESPN SP+ rating stands on both offense and defense to see what we can learn. Before we dive in, though, it’s worth level-setting on what exactly SP+ is. Here’s how it’s creator, Bill Connelly,
describes it in his own words:
In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that I originally created at Football Outsiders in 2008. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking, so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system does.
It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
Connelly also notes that early season ratings have to unfortunately rely on some preseason projections but that gets phased out over time.
Without further ado, here’s where SP+ has each Big Ten team ranking in the national picture:
There are several key takeaways from this chart. SP+ adores the Oregon Ducks, as it has them as the No. 1 team in the country by a sizable margin. Admittedly, they have not had the toughest schedule, but they have scored at will on virtually every opponent and are in the top-five nationally in offense, defense and special teams.
The No. 1 offense in the country also resides in the Big Ten, per SP+, as USC holds the top spot. The Trojans are ranked just 21st in the AP Poll, but quarterback Jayden Maiava and the offense have put up 73, 59, 33 and 45 points, respectively, in each of their first four matchups.
Five of the top-10 defenses in the country are in the Big Ten as well, as Ohio State (2), Penn State (4), Oregon (5), Michigan (8) and Minnesota (10) all have elite defenses so far this year. The Illinois defense tumbled mightily to No. 37 on defense and No. 36 overall after giving up 63 points last week at Indiana, which is a stark contrast to the top-10 ranking it held last week.
As seen above, Michigan sits at No. 17 overall, good for sixth in the Big Ten. The Wolverines have the ninth-best offense in the conference and the third-best defense. I would expect that offensive number to get better as Bryce Underwood continues to progress through the season.
Michigan defeated SP+ No. 20 Nebraska last week, and its remaining schedule includes just two SP+ top-25 teams in USC (11) and Ohio State (3). Washington and Maryland are the Wolverines’ next most challenging opponents, sitting at 28 and 33, respectively.
Where do you think Michigan will end the season ranked at in SP+ both on offense and defense? Let us know what you think down below.
