A week removed from their best effort since a 27-10 home win over the Illinois Fighting Illini in 2025, the Wisconsin Badgers hit the road to face a talented and well-coached Penn State Nittany Lions squad currently sitting at 3-0 and No. 13 in the land.
To keep the good vibes of a 44-point romp over Eastern Michigan going, Luke Fickell’s guys will need to win somewhere no Badger team has since George W. Bush’s first term. Yeah, it has been a minute. It might end up being Wisconsin’s most important
game of the season and will serve as a handy measuring stick for any 2026 progress.
So, let’s get to my Best Case, Worst Case, and Most Likely scenarios for Wisconsin against Penn State in Week 4.
Best Case
Yes, I’m going to put a Badger win here. I went back and forth a bit on this, but if things play out just right, the Badgers can trip up Matt Campbell’s Nittany Lions, who are really good but not elite and may still be figuring some things out themselves.
But “play out just right” is doing some very heavy lifting. To get this difficult win, Colton Joseph will simply need to be sublime, and that starts with good complementary play from the Wisconsin offensive line, which is looking as healthy as it has all season, and just in time.
The defense will also need to create at least two turnovers, and special teams play needs to serve up another banger. Coaching, of course, must be really good, as well. It also doesn’t hurt that star Penn State wide receiver Koby Howard has now been ruled out for the game and perhaps longer.
If all of these moving parts somehow come together, Wisconsin can sneak away with a victory, holding off Penn State at the end to send shockwaves through the Big Ten.
Score: Wisconsin 21-20
Worst Case
Here, all of the good vibes from last week evaporate from the jump, as Penn State’s superior talent, depth, and coaching keep the game from ever being in doubt.
Wisconsin is turnover-prone, can’t run the ball, and gets pushed around by Penn State’s offense on the way to a Rocco Becht-fueled walk in the park victory that starts the Luke Fickell hatchet watch up anew. The bad vibes will be less because the Badgers lost to a good team and more due to being unable to punch back and save face.
It’s a very long trip back to Madison, and the losing drought in Happy Valley extends to 23 years and counting for Bucky. Not great.
Score: Penn State 38-6.
Most Likely
My podcast earlier this week lamented how little I actually know about these 2026 Badgers. I’m still not sure what kind of team this is, so “Most Likely” predictions in a game like this feel unusually tricky. But here’s my best attempt.
Wisconsin comes ready to play and, for good portions of the game, looks competitive against the Nittany Lions, thanks to a few chunk plays on offense, some decent runs, and impressive defensive work from stalwarts like Mason Posa and Sebastian Cheeks.
But the Penn State talent, and crowd really leaning into a second half under the lights, prove too much for the Badgers, who come out on the wrong side of a score that, sadly, doesn’t look as close as the game actually was. A huge second-half turnover from Jeff Grimes’s lads seals Wisconsin’s fate, and they bow yet again to Penn State.
Score: Penn State 28-13.
