Another week, another primetime game against a team that has dominated the NFL in recent years, but finds itself suddenly on shakier ground. Last week the Falcons dispatched the always-great Buffalo Bills
by pressuring the hell out of Josh Allen and taking advantage of holes in the Buffalo secondary and a weak run defense, and this week they’re going to try to do the same thing to the San Francisco 49ers by…pressuring the hell out of Brock Purdy or Mac Jones, taking advantage of holes in the 49ers secondary, and clubbing a suspect run defense. These things write themselves.
Just like last week, taking this opponent lightly would be a mistake, but there’s a path to victory that’s not difficult to make out. Let’s talk about the matchup ahead.
Team rankings
The 49ers have been a much sharper passing attack overall, have scored a few more points, and have a slightly better run defense. Everywhere else you look, the gap between this team and our Falcons is actually fairly significant.
San Francisco hasn’t been able to run effectively, has seen their defense largely turn in a middling year, and have neither protected the ball extremely well nor forced a lot of turnovers. That’s not a recipe for success, and at some point they’ll need to make real gains on the ground, defensively, and in terms of their turnover fortune to keep their winning ways going.
How the 49ers have changed
They’ve been absurdly unfortunate, mostly.
Perhaps there is something really wrong with the strength and conditioning staff in San Francisco, but chances are they’re just the victims of bad luck and bad circumstances. They’ve been without Brock Purdy much of the year, down Nick Bosa and George Kittle, and just lost Fred Warner to the season, among other ailments. That has put a strain on a proud, talented football team, one that has seen them scuffling a bit. They’ve rarely been more vulnerable in the last five years.
Beyond the injuries, the biggest change was probably a switch from Nick Sorensen to Robert Saleh at defensive coordinator. That added some familiarity and stability at defensive coordinator, a spot where DeMeco Ryans departed, Steve Wilks was fired after the defense regressed under his watch, and Sorensen’s defense cratered much further in 2024. That shift is making a difference, but injuries are also sapping the defense to the point that the coordinator can’t scheme and call his way out of it entirely.
The team lost Leonard Floyd, Maliek Collins, Javon Hargrave, Dre Greenlaw, Jordan Mason, Deebo Samuel, Isaac Yiadom, Talanoa Hufanga, and Charvarius Ward, declining to re-sign De’Vondre Campbell after he walked off the field and refused to play last year. That’s a long list of contributors gone, and they largely replaced them either through the draft or with budget options outside of Bryce Huff, who signed a hefty deal to help key this pass rush with Nick Bosa.
The rookie additions do look good, though. Mykel Williams is an evident talent up front, Alfred Collins is showing well as a rookie on the interior, CJ West has evident promise even if the results have been inconsistent, and Upton Stout is taking his lumps as a starting cornerback but looks like a player to me. The 49ers needed to reload a bit and likely accomplished that, but not enough of those pieces have come together thus far in 2025 to stave off some regression, especially with injuries piling up. They’ll be better over the long haul for it, however.
What to know about Week 7
Like the Bills, the 49ers are a tough team. Unlike the Bills, they do not have one of the league’s elite quarterbacks to paper over their injuries and weaknesses, and the cracks have shown up all season long.
San Francisco has won four games, and won those four games by a combined 13 points. They beat a crummy Saints team by five points, a crummy Cardinals team by one point, and toughed it out over the Seahawks and Rams in more impressive fashion by four and three points, respectively. They’ve lost two of the past three weeks and won in overtime against Los Angeles, with the Jaguars winning by five and the Buccaneers by 11 after the team lost Fred Warner. I have healthy respect for Kyle Shanahan, this coaching staff, and this roster, but it is fairly obvious they are not a 4-2-caliber team right now, even if their record says otherwise.
Let’s talk about some of those weaknesses. Warner being out opens a massive hole in this defense, one the 49ers can’t properly paper over. Warner is one of the best run defenders and coverage options at linebacker in the NFL, period, and replacement Tatum Bethune is an unproven option who scuffled mightily in both those areas against Tampa Bay last week. Rookie Nick Martin and veteran Curtis Robinson also may be in the mix. The secondary, which was hollowed out by attrition in the offseason, has had expected growing pains from rookies like cornerback Upton Stout and safety Marcus Sigle, and fellow starters Deommodore Lenoir and Renardo Green have also had their struggles. Without Nick Bosa and with Yetur Gross-Matos banged up, the front seven is heavily reliant on Bryce Huff and rookie Mykel Williams for pass rushing help, though they do have a talented rotation on the interior. That’s all added up to a defense that has been pretty average, with a lot of attackable spots both over the middle and to the sidelines.
Upton Stout in particular has a nightmare assignment on Sunday night, and unless Saleh wants to change things up to protect him, Michael Penix Jr. should have zero hesitation about targeting Drake London over and over again over the middle. London has been thriving in the power slot role in recent weeks, and he has a seven inch height advantage over Stout and the hands and physicality to give the promising rookie corner fits. Penix showed last week that he’s fine zeroing in on London all day long, and this is a prime matchup for that.
The Falcons should also strive to try to get Tatum Bethune on Bijan Robinson and rookie Marcus Sigle on Kyle Pitts as often as humanly possible. Bethune has had limited opportunities but did not look like he was comfortable in coverage in those opportunities, and Bijan can put even very good linebackers in a blender with his footwork and route running. Pitts was quieter last week, but Sigle has been targeted with great success by opposing offenses, and Pitts has both a seven inch height advantage and the wheels to leave him behind. Darnell Mooney’s return would be welcome for this offense, but the same three guys the Falcons leaned on against the Bills are set up to succeed against the 49ers. I’m not sure San Francisco will be able to summon up any answers besides trying to pressure Penix into sacks and foolish mistakes, which of course can work.
On offense, Purdy’s return would give the 49ers a boost, but Mac Jones can execute what Shanahan wants at a reasonably high level. The problem for him is that this is a banged-up group on offense, with Ricky Pearsall not necessarily returning this week, Jauan Jennings dealing with multiple injuries, George Kittle no lock to return, and Christian McCaffrey dealing with his usual assortment of nagging injuries. The 49ers will be relying heavily on backups in some form or fashion Sunday, and Jones has to get rid of the ball quickly with Atlanta capable of blitzing and willing to ratchet up pressure. Jones has been mediocre under pressure, taking 12 sacks this year and averaging a measly 4.7 yards per pass when he does get rid of it, giving Atlanta clear gameplan to work with.
For all of that, the 49ers remain a team capable of making chicken salad out of chicken crap, a testament to depth and adaptability. Their passing game has been humming along despite significant attrition, and getting Purdy, Kittle, or both back would only help Shanahan keep working his wizardry. Pressure remains the best way to get Jones or Purdy off-balance, but Purdy can hurt you with his legs and is more capable of making plays on the move, something the Falcons will have to be cognizant of. McCaffrey has scuffled this year, but remains a weapon in space and a dangerous runner this so-so run defense has to account for. The 49ers are still very capable of making this a bit of a shootout.
Defensively, Huff and this front can still cook up enough pressure to force frustrating moments from Penix, who is still way too reluctant to take off when a play breaks down and can still lock on to his first read (read: London) to a dangerous extent when pressure’s in the vicinity. There’s little question that with so many injuries and new faces on their defense, the 49ers have to count on their pass rush and a solid run defense to get the job done against Atlanta, and there’s a narrow but manageable path to victory there if they can do that at a high level.
Let’s be clear about this, as nervous as it makes me to type this: The Falcons are a better team right now than the 49ers. There’s a brilliant coaching staff on the other sideline and enough good players that it will surprise no one if San Francisco ekes out a win or at least gives Atlanta a hell of a game, but Atlanta’s healthier, surging, and well-positioned to take advantage of the massive holes that injury and attrition have blown in the hull of one of the NFC’s persistently great teams. That guarantees nothing, but the Falcons showed last week they can stymie a terrific offense and take full advantage of a porous defense, and they’re getting another chance to do so this week. Another fairly crisp game that plays to their strengths versus San Francisco’s weaknesses should be enough for a second straight primetime victory.
It feels very weird to have this kind of confidence, but here we are. Now the Falcons just need to reward it by running their winning streak to three games.
