A year ago, I wrote about my three favorite mid-major coaching hires from that cycle. It featured Eric Olen (New Mexico), Bryan Hodgson (South Florida) and Lennie Acuff (Samford).
We now know that Olen made the NIT semifinals in year one, Hodgson made the NCAA Tournament in year one and is off to Providence, and Acuff led Samford to an 11-7 record in SoCon play, figuring it out by the end of the year.
But how about the other first-year coaches in mid-major basketball? And how do those three stack up
against the pack? Over the course of the season, I’ve been keeping track of the KenPom ratings for each first-year head coach vs. where the team was situated in the preseason.
Obviously, this is very noisy. It has flaws. One coach told me that the simple equation penalizes coaches for recruiting well, or celebrates those who recruit poorly, then outkick their coverage. But it does a pretty good job of assessing who outperformed expectations in year one.
So, let’s take a look.
Here are a few takeaways:
How my top three did
Bryan Hodgson had the second-highest overperformance in mid-major basketball, finishing 10.34 rating points higher than preseason rating. He took South Florida to a double American Conference title and the program’s first NCAA Tournament since 2012. He parlayed that into taking the Providence job. South Florida then hired Charleston’s Chris Mack.
Eric Olen’s team outperformed its preseason KenPom by 9.38 rating points, finishing fourth among mid-major coaches. His three unheralded first-year players – Uriah Tenette and Jake Hall, who were committed to him at UC San Diego, and European import Tomislav Buljan – helped the Lobos in ways that nobody predicted. New Mexico won 26 games and made the NIT Semifinals, but Hall and Buljan are both in the transfer portal.
Lennie Acuff’s Samford team actually finished worse than its preseason KenPom ranking by 0.95 rating points. That ranks 30th among the 48 first-year mid-major coaches, but the Bulldogs improved as the season went on and won nine of their final 11 regular-season games. Jadin Booth and Dylan Faulkner were among the best duos in the SoCon. I still think that Acuff was an excellent hire despite not immediately elevating the program past where it was.
Matt Braeuer
Stephen F. Austin’s hire of former Texas Tech assistant and Lone Star lifer Matt Braeuer has paid immediate dividends. He brought the Lumberjacks back to the top of the Southland with a 27-4 regular season and appearance in the NIT. Perhaps if the Jacks didn’t have to play an away game as the regular-season champions in the Southland final, they would’ve made the NCAA Tournament. His team outperformed its preseason KenPom by a wider margin than any other first-year coach, and by over four points!
Ivy’s nailed it (mostly)
Fran McCaffery and Kevin Hovde each returned to places that were a big part of their early careers, and they had strong first seasons, according to KenPom. Those seasons ended much differently, however.
McCaffery led his alma mater to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018. He finished with the third-best overperformance of any first-year coach. TJ Power’s heroic 44-point performance in the Ivy Madness final against Yale is one of the greatest performances in the conference’s history.
While it definitely feels like Hovde has the Lions on the right track, his team struggled in Ivy play, going 5-9 after starting 11-3 in non-conference play. It also lost a bunch of seniors. Nevertheless, he finished with Columbia’s first winning season since his former boss Kyle Smith’s last year in 2015-16.
A few promotions that went well
Clint Allard (UC San Diego), Flynn Clayman (High Point), and Jon Perry (Navy) all went from assistant coach to head coach when the previous head coach left. And they all had strong seasons. Perry led Navy to a dominant Patriot League title, finishing seventh on this list. Allard’s Big West record may have been disappointing, but the Tritons still finished with the 11th best overperformance by first-year coaches. While expectations were high for Clayman at High Point, he exceeded them, winning the first NCAA Tournament game in program history, and finishing 15th on this list. Meanwhile, Dwan McMillan, who took over at Wagner’s interim head coach after Donald Copeland was put on leave, had the sixth-best overperformance.
Not getting enough credit on here
Steve Donahue is 26th on here, but I don’t think 25 first-year coaches had a more impressive season than him. He took over as the head coach after Billy Lange left and navigated a struggle in non-conference play, including kicking Deuce Jones off the team, to finish with a double bye in the A-10 Tournament. KenPom be damned.
Like Donahue, Kevin Giltner didn’t get the Wofford job until very late, returning to his alma mater in September, and he led the Terriers to an 11-7 record in conference play. The SoCon had a down year in terms of KenPom, and I think both new coaches in that league – Giltner and Acuff – got the short end of the stick on these rankings because of it.
Other tourney teams
Bill Armstrong (8th) continued the strong momentum from Will Wade’s tenure at McNeese and led the Cowboys to an overperformance of 5.41 rating points on KenPom and a third straight trip to the NCAA Tournament.
Nolan Smith (10th) got the Tennessee State job late in the cycle and helped a talented team make it to the NCAA Tournament, playing incredible basketball as the season finished in the Ohio Valley.
Phil Martelli Jr. (12th) led VCU to the A-10 Tournament title and a win over North Carolina in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
Other fun teams
I enjoyed watching Tim Bergstrasser’s (5th) first Denver team, which had an elite offense in the Summit League with a bunch of players that came over from MSU Moorhead with him. Additionally, Mike Magpayo (13th) navigated multiple players leaving the team for different reasons before the first week of the season ended in order to finish eighth in the A-10 with a lot of length in the frontcourt. The record isn’t pretty, but Ben Howlett (14th) overperformed KenPom expectation in year one at IU Indy, playing “The System,” which is always a fun watch.
Rough season in Smithfield
I’d be remiss if I didn’t at least mention the bottom of this list. Jamion Christian’s return to college basketball was not good. His Bryant Bulldogs drastically underperformed KenPom expectations, more so than any other first-year coach. It was a very young team, but one that never settled in and found a flow at any point in the year. He had a rough season in terms of efficiency, but I’m still a believer in PG Ty Tabales.
