The NCAA Tournament bracket was revealed on Sunday night, and Illinois received a No. 3 seed in the South Region. Illinois will head to Greenville, SC for a matchup against Penn on Thursday night.
It was disappointing that the Illini were unable to secure a No. 2 seed and play in St. Louis, as they had looked like a near lock to receive that spot. Illinois was clearly ahead of Purdue in the seed list going into the week, but the Illini lost to Wisconsin in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament
while Purdue won four games in four days to claim the Big Ten Tournament championship. The Boilermakers defeated Michigan in the title game to move up to a No. 2 seed and take the St. Louis destination from Illinois.
The Illini dropped to a No. 3 seed but should still be happy with their overall draw. Penn was the No. 3 seed in the Ivy League Conference Tournament and upset Yale on Sunday to earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Penn is the third-ranked No. 14 seed on KenPom in this year’s tournament at No. 150. North Dakota State is No. 113, Wright State is No. 140, and Kennesaw State is No. 163.
Illinois is a heavy favorite in this matchup and should have no trouble winning an NCAA Tournament game for the third straight season. Former Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery is now the head coach at Penn, adding an interesting coaching storyline to the game.
McCaffery led his alma mater to the NCAA Tournament in his first season as head coach. Junior forward TJ Power scored 44 points and grabbed 14 rebounds in Penn’s upset win over Yale in the conference title game.
With a win against Penn, Illinois will face either No. 6 North Carolina or No. 11 VCU. VCU could be a trendy upset pick against a North Carolina team that will be without its best player in Caleb Wilson.
Wilson is a projected top-five NBA Draft pick but is out for the season with a broken thumb. He led the Tar Heels in both scoring and rebounding, averaging 19.8 points and 9.4 rebounds per game.
VCU won the A-10 Championship to clinch its spot in the NCAA Tournament and enters the matchup as just a 2.5-point underdog.
Surprisingly, the Illini received a favorable draw in Greenville with a clear path to their second Sweet 16 in three years. North Carolina will have the geographical advantage, but Illinois should still be a sizable favorite against either the Tar Heels or the Rams in the Round of 32.
VCU is ranked No. 45 on KenPom, while North Carolina sits at No. 29. According to Bart Torvik, Illinois has a 70.9% chance to reach the Sweet 16 and a 42.3% chance to make the Elite Eight.
To reach the Elite Eight, Illinois will likely need to defeat the Houston Cougars in the Sweet 16. The South Regional will be held inside the Toyota Center, home of the Houston Rockets, so I would expect a sea of red in attendance for that potential matchup.
It would be the first time Illinois has played Houston since the two teams met in the Round of 32 of the 2022 NCAA Tournament. The Cougars defeated the Illini 68-53 and advanced to the Elite Eight that season. Houston is a difficult matchup for Illinois because of its elite guard play and athleticism. Kingston Flemings is a projected top-10 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, while Emmanuel Sharp and Miles Uzan both have Final Four experience.
Florida is the No. 1 seed in Illinois’ region and has a realistic chance to reach its second straight Final Four.
Florida is the weakest No. 1 seed in the tournament but would still be a difficult opponent in a potential Elite Eight showdown. The Gators are playing as well as anyone in the country and have a strong collection of big men who can match up with anyone.
Overall, I am pleased with Illinois’ draw in this year’s NCAA Tournament. The Illini were dealt difficult draws in both 2021 and 2022, so it is nice to see them land favorable matchups in the first two rounds.
Illinois is favored to reach the second weekend, but the team will need to bounce back from its tough loss to Wisconsin. I expect the Illini to make the second weekend, and that should be the expectation for this group.
My pick to win the South Regional is Houston. Illinois certainly has a chance to beat Houston, but I lean toward the Cougars advancing. Houston will essentially be playing in its backyard and should have a strong fan presence in both the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games. With experienced guards who have already played in a national championship game, I predict the Cougars will defeat Florida in the Elite Eight and advance to their second straight Final Four.
