What a ride Sunday was for me. I woke up in a good head space. I was thinking about the frustration of Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong out of the lineup. It is sometimes so frustrating being a Cub fan. This has been a recurring thing the last several years with a player being held out for days but not going on the IL. This organization has gotten deep enough that I think we have some eagerness to see them get a chance while someone gets fully healthy.
That’s certainly the case right now with Owen
Caissie, Kevin Alcántara and Moises Ballesteros bouncing back and forth between Iowa and Chicago. It’s not that anyone doesn’t love PCA or Tucker. But we’re happy to see the young guys get a shot while the big guys get right. But I woke up today thinking that I wrote at length a few weeks ago that this month of September was totally about getting right. I too would like to see the kids play while they are doing that. But in the end, what I don’t want is banged up guys trying to push through right now. I mean two or three weeks from now we’re going to have that “you’re either in or out” moment.
The team has not clinched anything and certainly hasn’t clinched the top wild card spot. But, they are going to be a playoff team and they have a real good shot of being that top wild card. They still need to win games. Preferably another 10 or 12 wins. But, it’s a balance right now. I get it, if they can get five days of Tucker after five days of mix and match, they want that. I see both sides of that argument and I’m not bothered by it.
So I kind of made peace with how things are going. I think this team is a higher priority of getting healthy than winning. 95 wins isn’t likely to be much different than 90. Though 90 will be better than 85. And even after all of that rationalizing, we had Daniel Palencia leaving hurt. I was away from technology at the time of the ninth inning meltdown, but I see second hand that his velocity was down. My impression is that he faced a batter or two after he might have (hopefully only) tweaked something.
The injury is a way more bitter pill to swallow than the loss. Though the offensive ineptitude Saturday and Sunday wasn’t too far behind.
Pitch Counts:
- Nationals: 153, 39 BF
- Cubs: 114, 34 BF
For the second straight day, we see the advanced approach of the Cubs. The Nationals threw 17 pitches per inning and the Cubs threw 12.66 per inning. The Nationals faced 12 over the minimum and the Cubs only seven. The Cubs posted that low pitch count with 12 strikeouts. There are a whole lot of numbers here that point to a Cub win. But, of course, all of the Nationals offense came right at the end. They had only three hits over the first eight innings. So this is an abysmal sequencing game from a Cub perspective.
Drew Pomeranz has thrown two straight. He was very effective both days, but he’s probably down Monday. Caleb Thielbar threw Friday and Sunday. He only threw seven pitches, he can almost certainly go Monday. Brad Keller threw 11 pitches. He also threw Friday and Sunday. He’s maybe the closer Monday. We won’t see Palencia for at least a little bit. Porter Hodge also threw Friday and Sunday. He only threw nine pitches and should be available Monday.
Three Stars:
- Carson Kelly with two homers accounted for most of the offense.
- Colin Rea has been so important for this team. 5.1 innings behind the opener. Three hits, one run. He struck out six and didn’t walk anyone. He’s been really effective way more often than not.
- Drew Pomeranz started this off on the right foot with two strikeouts in a 1-2-3 first.
Game 143, September 7: Nationals 6, Cubs 3 (81-62)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Colin Rea (.210). 5.1 IP, 18 BF, 3 H, 0 BB, 1 ER, 6 K
- Hero: Brad Keller (.118). IP, 3 BF, 2 K
- Sidekick: Carson Kelly (.117). 2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R
THREE GOATS
- Billy Goat: Daniel Palencia (-.893). 0 IP, 5 BF, 4 H, 5 ER, BB (L 1-6). This is the lowest WPA score by a Cubs player since Luke Farrell on May 6, 2018.
- Goat: Ian Happ (-.095). 1-4, BB
- Kid: Carlos Santana (-.065). 0-4
WPA Play of the Game: Josh Bell’s three-run homer turned a one-run Cub lead to a two-run Nationals lead. (.493)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Seiya Suzuki’s two-out, RBI-single in the fifth gave the Cubs a one-run lead. (.151)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Matthew Boyd (86 of 92 votes).
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +29
- Matthew Boyd +23
- Shōta Imanaga +22
- Jameson Taillon +16
- Michael Busch +14.67
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Carson Kelly -17
- Ben Brown -19
- Dansby Swanson -24.33
- Seiya Suzuki -30
Scoreboard Watching: Padres (Wild Card 2) win (Cubs up 3). Mets (WC 3) lose (Cubs up 5). Giants lose/Reds win (Cubs up 9; Giants or Reds need to go 18-1 to reach 90 wins.). The Cubs’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 11 with 19 games to go. For what it’s worth, the Brewers won again (Cubs down 7.5). We’ll count down the magic number against the Giants/Reds until the Cubs clinch a playoff spot. Then we’ll turn our attention (presumably) to the Mets and Brewers.
Up Next: The Braves lost 18-2 on Sunday. The Cubs just took two of three from them last week. The Braves are 64-79. They used three relievers before having Vidal Bruján close the game out. Joey Wentz, who the Cubs saw last week, got pounded and ultimately two Braves relievers threw 38 and 58 pitches. So they don’t have a clean pen either.
Shōta Imanaga (9-6, 3.15, 123 IP) starts for the Cubs. He allowed three over six on Tuesday and recorded a win against the Braves. He’s so consistent. Over seven starts he is at 3.20, over 15, 3.13 and over 21 it is 3.15. He’s lowered his WHIP and batting average against improved too, year over year. The true expected results should probably fall somewhere between last year’s 15-3 record and this year’s 9-6.
Bryce Elder (6-9, 5.54, 131.2 IP) starts for the Braves. He started Wednesday and won. He threw seven scoreless. He’s really trending well. He’s had a few spots this year where he’s faced a team for the second time, but hasn’t had one where he faced the same team in consecutive starts. He’s been much worse at home (6.98 vs. 4.35) and also worse at night (5.79 vs. 4.95).
Bounce back. Need a win.
