Fittingly, Tyler Herro used the song ‘Coming Home’ in his farewell video to the Miami Heat. On the same day, he also posted a drenched Bucks workout singlet to his Instagram story, along with a Twitter post reading “414” when the trade was announced in principle a few weeks ago. Whether he gets traded to another location or not between now and the start of the season, this is a man who is genuinely excited about the prospect of playing in his home state, which, like it or not, is not something pro athletes
often say about Wisconsin.
I’m starting to come around.
From obscurity to celebrity: The come-up
As most Wisconsinites are aware, Tyler Herro grew up in Greenfield, just a 20-minute drive from the heart of Milwaukee. He starred at Whitnall High School, committing early to attend the University of Wisconsin. Later, though, Herro decommitted from UW to accept an offer from the University of Kentucky, which, it must be said, upset a few folks back home. It’s worth mentioning that Herro was not some automatic one-and-done prospect coming into his freshman season at Lexington, like so many Wildcat recruits are. The risky decision to step away from the comfort of Wisconsin into the firestorm of Kentucky took, as Kobe would say, “cajones” and, looking back, was a microcosm of the fearless mindset that would set Herro apart in the coming years.
Before long, the cat was out of the bag. Coach Cal injected Herro into his starting lineup from the jump, and he did not disappoint. His slick scoring and feel led him to average 14.0 PPG, 4.50 RPG, and 2.50 APG, and he went on to be named the SEC’s Rookie of the Year. Herro later declared for the 2019 NBA Draft, where he was selected 13th by the Miami Heat.
Feet to the Heat
The kid known as “Boy Wonder” experienced a baptism-by-fire in his rookie season—on multiple levels. I mean, his rookie year was quite literally interrupted by a worldwide pandemic; yet and still, though, his numbers in the shortened regular season were phenomenal, averaging 13.5 PPG on nearly 40% shooting from deep while playing on a team that was trying to compete for the title (which they did, of course, downing our very own Milwaukee Bucks in the second round of the 2019-20 NBA Playoffs). Herro was one of the headline stories to come out of those playoffs, announcing himself, at that time, as a near-untouchable piece of the Heat’s future.
Durability issues aside, Herro has been among the NBA’s upper echelon of players since that point. From year two to year three, he dramatically upped his PPG average from 15.1 to 20.7—a mark he has spent the rest of his career around. Herro won Sixth Man of the Year for the 2021-22 season and was selected as an All-Star three years later. Frankly, for all the issues people might have with the 26-year-old—and I’ve been a skeptic, to be sure—you look at the stats and have to concede that, when healthy, this is a damn good player who can contribute to winning basketball in the right situation. Over the last five seasons, Herro has averaged 21.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 4.5 APG while shooting 38.4% from three on a whopping 7.7 attempts per contest. He’s good!
Herro’s offensive game is built on the back of his three-point shooting ability. I mentioned his raw shooting stats above, but looking at the advanced tracking, there is no drop-off even when you differentiate his catch-and-shoot threes (37.3%) from his pull-ups (38.7%)—both on high volume, mind you. For whatever he lacks in explosiveness, he makes up for with craft. The Bucks will have touches to soak up, and Herro is comfortable operating with a high usage, as evidenced by his shooting 50.3% on all shots taken off 3-6 dribbles, which, aside from off 0 dribbles, easily accounts for his most frequent shot taken. Yes, Herro will need to be insulated on defence, but I also think he’ll be highly motivated to shed the “poor defender” tag that has dogged him for his entire career.
Boy Wonder’s future in the Cream City
Look, is Herro a top option on a champion team? No way. But his reputation in the league simply doesn’t do justice to the player he has become. Behind the loud bravado and ostentatiousness lies an extremely talented hooper who is clearly motivated to prove the doubters wrong; trust me, this man is keenly aware that Pat Riley has attempted to trade him multiple times. And let me tell you something else: with nothing in the way of draft picks to play for this year, I am very down for a revenge-fuelled season powered by healthy levels of spite and pettiness, with none other than Herro leading that charge.
Now, would it be a smart choice for the Bucks to invest in Herro as a franchise pillar for the next 5-10 years? Probably not. Investing in him long-term may well be like choosing to satisfy your hunger with candy: it’ll have you feeling a buzz in the moment, but it’s not sustainable in the long run. At the same time, the Bucks don’t necessarily have to know what the “long run” looks like for a few years yet, and I’m not opposed to a sugar rush.
Welcome home, Tyler Herro.
