If you can believe it, Josh Heupel and his newfangled offense is entering his 5th season at Tennessee. 5 years ago, I boldly stated that an offense based on lining the wide receivers up as wide as possible
and running a bunch of screen passes and iso runs out of that was an offense that was relying on a gimmick and wouldn’t last.
Now, for what it’s worth, after the exceptional 2022 season, Heupel’s Vols saw their offense prowess significantly curtailed in 2023. It improved some last year, but still fell short of what Tennessee accomplished in Heupel’s first two seasons.
In 2025, though, things are looking a little different. The Vols brought in a veteran transfer QB in Joey Aguilar, and their offense has exploded. They’re 1st in the entire country in scoring, averaging 48.2 points per game, with only Arkansas last week holding them under 40 points. It’s not the most totally accurate metric, as the Vols have played in two overtime games, which boosts their scoring a little, but they’re still probably the best offense in the whole country to this point.
Now, back to my original claim about the ultra-wide formation gimmicks: Heupel’s offense is looking a little different this year. Aguilar seems to be the first QB he’s trusted to run a more pure passing attack, and the Vols are doing much more than the 1-read screen/slant/go passing attack that we’ve been used to. Many of those concepts are still there and used frequently, but they also call a full normal offense of mid range passing concepts, especially drags and seams. They run play action on nearly 60% of their passes, and a big part of the offense is pairing that play action look with those interior ISO runs and working really hard to make all of those plays work on similar timings to keep the defense from being able to commit to run or pass.
Aguilar is a volume passer from Washington State, and it shows in his game. He’s aggressive with the ball and happy to thread it into traffic across the middle or wing one downfield and hope for the best. It leads to some big plays and big moments, but he’ll also airmail his fair share of throws and has gotten quite a few inceptions on balls deflecting off guys in the middle of the field. He’s neck and neck with Ty Simpson with 1680 passing yards on the season and has one of the NCAA’s best yards per completion stats with 14.2. The downside is that he’s completing less than 65% of his passes and has a 2.7% interception rate (over 5 times worse than Simpson).
His top receiving target is Chris Brazzell, who’s in his second year with Tennessee after transferring from Tulane. Brazzell is a dangerous speedster who’s got 536 yards and 7 TDs already this season. His ability to win down the sidelines both by speed and by making contested catches, plus his ability to make defenders miss, make him one of the top wide receivers in the SEC.
Braylon Staley is the next favorite target, and he is a dedicated slot guy who’s done almost the entire bulk of his 431 yards over the middle as more of a chain-mover than a big play guy. Finally, Mike Matthews is the other outside receiver who’s also more of a downfield threat, with 416 yards on only 25 catches.
The fourth receiving option is a name Alabama fans will recognize, Tight End Miles Kitselman. The former Alabama backup has 204 yards on 19 catches. He’s struggled a bit with drops on the year (4 drops on 30 targets), but is still the Vols main tight end. He also lines up as a an H-back in the backfield just as much as he does as an inline tight end, so a lot of his role can be like a modern fullback as often as not.
Overall, the Vols are credited with a staggering 21 drops on the season (almost 4 per game). The running backs have been the biggest contributors there, but pretty much all of their main guys have 2-3 drops each. For comparison, Alabama has only 11 drops, and that’s with Ryan Williams dropping 6 by himself. That, combined with Aguilar’s inconsistent accuracy, has made for plenty of frustrating moments in Tennessee’s offense that they’ve managed to drown out with sheer volume.
In the running game, DeSean Bishop, Star Thomas, and Peyton Lewis all run a co-starter platoon, and the trio have combined for 1,009 yards on 168 carries. Bishop leads the group with an absurd 7.6 yards per carry, but all three are used fairly interchangeably. It’s a relentless interior attack with lots of pulling guards and cross blocks that will really challenge the toughness of a defensive interior, and Bishop excels at hitting the holes and shooting upfield in a hurry.
As far as their offensive line, the Vols have arguably the best pass blocking squad in the country. They’ve only allowed Aguilar to be sacked twice. And for his part, Aguilar regularly gets the ball out extremely fast to keep himself clean. As a whole, their run blocking hasn’t been as good, but they’re still rushing very effectively.
The #1 offense in the country is never a good matchup for any defense, not matter the scheme. This is going to be a tough one for the Tide. That said, there are some areas for optimism. Alabama’s defense has struggled with edge contain on zone rushing teams, but Tennessee likes to play more to the interior. Can Tim Keenan be a factor at nose tackle? Still, it’s hard to predict a lot of success for Alabama here, as their run defense has been the main weakness on the team this season.
In the passing game, I think Alabama’s secondary in their vision zone scheme will have them in an opportunistic position against a scattershot attack from Tennessee. They’ll likely give up more yards than we like as Aguilar hits the holes in between the linebackers and slot, BUT I also think they’ll come down with an interception or two.
Still, Tennessee turns every game into a track meet. Even if Alabama’s defense does adequately well, there will likely be a few more possessions in the game than we’ve see the last three games, so don’t be surprised if the Tide gives up more points than we’ve gotten used to.
Let’s go with 33 points for the Vols, and hope for the best that the Alabama offense can outscore them.
