“The things that we need to focus on as a football team is: continue to improve, be at our best on Saturday and position ourselves to have a great win at home and get our first Big Ten win.” — head coach
David Braun
This quote from David Braun says it all — Northwestern’s matchup against UCLA is a prime opportunity to appease Wildcat fans and pickup a valuable victory in the first Big Ten game of the season. The game’s implications are significant both short and long-term — it can position the ‘Cats at a favorable spot in the standings to start the season, and boost their bowl game hopes as the schedule becomes more daunting.
But those implications won’t come to fruition unless NU can secure a win against a Bruin squad amid some of the darker days in the program’s recent history. Having just fired their head coach and facing an 0-3 record with nowhere to go but up, UCLA is bound to be extra motivated and playing with a sense of desperation as it hopes to kickstart a stronger campaign under new leadership.
This is a winnable matchup for the ‘Cats, but one they should be wary of chalking up as an “easy win.” Here are the ways Northwestern can find a momentous victory, and ways they may fall at the mercy of the Bruin.
Why Northwestern will beat UCLA
Preston Stone exploits UCLA’s secondary
It’s been a shaky start to the year for Stone, who’s QB rating remains a mere 14.3 as he posts double the amount of interceptions than touchdowns. But this game could possibly serve as a get-right outing for NU’s starting quarterback. UCLA’s defense has struggled mightily this season, ceding an average of 36 points per game. The secondary has been undisciplined and lacked consistency, allowing quarterbacks to hit 75% of their throws so far while giving up numerous big plays downfield. It was so bad, defensive coordinator Ikaika Malloe was also dismissed last week amid the team’s flurry of layoffs.
Simply put, Stone has the opportunity to feast. It’s imperative that he leverage his chemistry with Griffin Wilde, who had 55 yards on four catches against Oregon. He has become the first NU player since 2016 to lead the squad in receiving yards through the first three games, and appears poised for a breakout outing. Meanwhile, Braun has made clear his intention to draw more plays for Drew Wagner or Hayden Eligon II, bringing more variety to Stone’s options.
As Braun also mentioned, big plays should not be forced (more on this later). But if recent history is any indication Stone will have plenty of chances to find those holes in the defense and take advantage.
The ‘Cats run the ball down the Bruins’ throats
This was something Braun made special note of in his press conference on Monday. He mentioned that even the running back room “would admit: there’s more explosive plays out there for us.” Dashun Reeder’s 79 yard run late against Oregon is a prime example the ‘Cats should be looking to replicate. The freshman brings a much-needed spark to a room that needs it following the season-ending injury to Cam Porter. Daniel Anderson is also expected to help with some extra load, while Joe Himon and Caleb Komolafe, who against Oregon ran 59 and 53 yards respectively, will continue to get carries and round out the dynamic running back squad.
UCLA’s run defense has been getting gashed the entire season, giving up the most rushing yards in the Big Ten. And it’ll be coming off a game against New Mexico where they ceded 298 yards on the ground, struggling with open field tackles and fundamental defensive football. There’s no excuses for the NU not to utilize the run game against the Bruins, and it should garner success when doing so.
Why Northwestern won’t beat UCLA
Turnovers
By far the most disappointing aspect of NU’s season has been the sheer volume of turnovers. Preston Stone’s six interceptions and frequent fumbles have been concerning, while NU as a whole has turned the ball over eight times in the first three games. So far, it hasn’t been able to come back from those mistakes, and one could argue turnovers single handedly cost the ‘Cats the game against Tulane and hindered any chance of a major upset against Oregon.
When playing struggling programs like UCLA, avoiding self-inflicting errors is paramount. The Bruins should have to work for every point, and the last thing NU wants to do is give them any gifts or opportunities to regain momentum and burst out of the mediocrity they finds themselves in. For all criticism that can be thrown at the Bruins, the ‘Cats have more turnovers than them this season. UCLA quarterback Nico Iamaleava hasn’t been spectacular by any means — but he’s thrown only three interceptions, half the amount of Stone.
The goal for the ‘Cats is simple: make UCLA beat you — don’t beat yourself.
Imbalanced offense
I mentioned how the ’Cats should look for explosive plays — but if they over rely on them for success (as they’ve done in previous games), this matchup could get ugly quick.
The ‘Cats cannot force Preston Stone to play hero ball the entire game. Zach Lujan must come from the bye week with a more balanced offensive script — one that incorporates every running back and emphasizes quick throws that give Preston Stone time to make proper reads and feel comfortable evaluating his weapons. Stone must also utilize all receivers at his disposal and ensure the offense can consistently move the ball downfield.
Also, it’s worth mentioning again: turnovers plague that balance, and to make up from them Lujan may be more inclined to draw up riskier plays to gain yardage faster. NU must stick to the script and avoid any errors. If they do, this should walk out of this matchup with a 2-2 record.
