Ahead of this year’s training camp, New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel explained that he was looking at his team’s performances in three distinct categories. There is the good, the bad, and, as he called it, the s—t that gets you beat.
The Patriots’ 35-31 loss to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday saw a mix of all three. Early on, the team played on a high level worthy of the AFC East title. From intermission on, however, Buffalo dominated proceedings to erase a 24-7 deficit and come away with the W.
So, if the coach wants to look at the Patriots through all three of those categories, who are we to disagree? Let’s break down the Week 15 game in exactly that manner.
The good: Run game
Statistically, the matchup between the Patriots’ rushing offense and Bills run defense fell into the “weakness vs. weakness” category. Neither group had managed to play successful football on a consistent basis so far this season resulting into some hideous rankings no matter what number you would look at.
On Sunday, only one of the two units lived up to that dubious billing: Buffalo’s run defense was shredded by the Patriots to the tune of 246 yards on 25 carries, resulting in a franchise-record average of 9.8 yards per carry. New England also scored four times on the ground, and registered 0.59 expected points added per rush — an absolutely absurd number.
The Patriots set the tone from the first drive on. Rhamondre Stevenson burst through the middle for a gain of 15 on the first play from scrimmage, with Drake Maye later capping the series with an 8-yard touchdown on a quarterback option. Stevenson and Maye finished with 50 and 48 rushing yards, respectively, with the latter finding the end zone twice, and yet both had to take a backseat to rookie TreVeyon Henderson.
While overshadowed by the end result, the second-round draft pick was impressive as a runner on Sunday. Henderson scored touchdowns of 52 and 65 yards and finished the day with 148 rushing yards on just 10 carries.
As with all things Patriots on Sunday, however, most of the production came in the first half: 177 of those 246 yards came in the first two quarters, and New England ended up running the ball just three times in the third and fourth periods.
The bad: Kick coverage
There is a lot to choose from in this category, unfortunately, but the Patriots’ kickoff coverage takes the cake. The unit was outmatched throughout the day, allowing Bills return man Ray Davis to average 41.0 yards on four runbacks — clearly above his season-long average of 30.6 entering the game.
What was an above-average outing for Davis, was a massive disappointment for New England. Even with core special teamer Brenden Schooler back in the fold, the group failed to live up to its usual standards. The Patriots had surrendered just under 24 yards per kickoff return over their first 13 games, good enough for fifth in the NFL. And yet, Davis found openings again and again.
This helped spark the Bills’ comeback. On the first of their five consecutive touchdown drives between the second and fourth quarters, they set up shop on the New England side of the ball: the first series started at the 42-, the second at the 44-yard line.
In total, Buffalo had an average of 14 fewer yards to drive on the day. The Bills’ average starting position was their 39-yard line compared to the Patriots’ 25. If not for the visitors catching a Drake Maye interception at their own 9, that difference might have been even more pronounced.
The s—t that gets you beat: Killer instinct
You know how the old saying goes: to be the best, you have to beat the best. Well, in order to beat the best, you have to find a way to finish them off when you are up by three touchdowns. The Patriots, of course, were unable to do so on Sunday, allowing Buffalo to complete its comeback and remain alive in the race for the AFC East title.
So, what went wrong? New England’s head coach identified several issues during his postgame press conference, primarily on the defensive side of the ball. Those criticisms are all valid, of course, but the offense also had its fair share of issues down the stretch ranging from play selection to execution.
All this can be summed up like this: the Patriots lacked a killer instinct on Sunday.
Had they made one stop on defense, better progress on offense, or just lived up to their usual level on special teams, they might be celebrating an AFC East title today. However, that stop never came and Buffalo ended up going 5-for-5 in the red zone. Meanwhile, the Patriots went just 1-for-5 on third down in the second half, while the Bills had a clear hidden yards advantage throughout the day.
The game was still there for the taking, especially after New England went up 31-28 in the fourth quarter. However, that all-important final blow was never delivered.
