The Miami Dolphins will be back in Joe Robbie Hard Rock Stadium to face the Detroit Lions this Sunday. The good news? For the first time all season, the Dolphins will not have to go back out onto the road after a home game. The bad news? They face a hot Detroit Lions team. Do they have a chance? Mebbe.
3 REASONS FOR HOPE
MALIK WILLIS IS IMPROVING
Locked On Dolphins covered an aspect of this much more deeply than I can in an article, so I’ll let you watch for yourself. Willis was nothing short of atrocious the 1st 5 games. He had moments but
was overall bad. But in the past 2 games, we have seen Willis take a step forward. I’ve listed my preferred stats in previous posts so let’s compare Willis’ 1st 5 games to the last 2 games in those stats. In the 1st five games, Willis had a completion percentage of 56.2% – completing 73 of his 130 attempts. In the last 2 games, Willis has a completion percentage of 66% – completing 35 of 53 pass attempts. In the 1st five games, Willis had a YPA of 6.53. In the last 2 games, he has a YPA of 7.91. He threw 2 TDs on 130 attempts for a TD% of 1.5%. In the last 2 games, he has 4 TDs on 53 attempts, for a TD% of 7.5%. Weeks 1-5, he had 4 INTs in 130 attempts for an INT% of 3.1%. The last 2 weeks, he has 1 INT in 53 attempts, which is an INT% of 1.9%. This is drastic improvement across the board. Two games don’t erase the previous five and I’m not saying he has suddenly gone from Joe Dirt to Joe Montana. But I said in the offseason he should be considered an “experienced rookie”. And like most rookies, there has been bumps in the road but also some growth. The next step is to maintain that growth and sustain these increased averages. But not only is there statistical improvement, he has become a vocal leader. Willis is a reserved man and doesn’t have a fiery disposition. But his interaction with Ollie Gordon II on the sideline after Gordon’s penalty and what was said after that shows a level of leadership I haven’t seen from a Dolphins’ quarterback in YEARS. It’s an impressive display for a young QB trying to find his footing and become a great player and a franchise QB. They don’t HAVE to listen to him, but that interaction shows that they do.
THE REST OF THE OFFENSE IS GETTING BETTER
The Dolphins started the season very rough on the offensive side of the ball. The were averaging 11.5 PPG the 1st 4 weeks of the season. In the last 3 games, they average 23.7 PPG. That would be 12th best if that were the season. In the 1st 4 games, they average 267.5 yards per game. In the last 3 games, they averaged 320 yards per game. Getting Caleb Douglas back helped, but we’ve also seen development and improvement from other WRs like Malik Washington – who is creating more separation than I would have expected – and Kevin Coleman Jr., who roasted a Pats DB for his 2nd TD of the season. Greg Dulcich is getting more involved. Gordon had a rougher day at the office against a stout NE run defense, but he is still on pace for a 1000-yard season and maybe he gets double digit TDs. It’s a young and growing offense that will have its fair share of issues, like we saw in the 3rd quarter last week. But they are getting better and now face…
THE LIONS DEFENSE IS STRUGGLING
So far this season, the Dolphins have faced 4 of the top 10 scoring defenses. They have faced 4 of the top 10 passing defenses in passing yards allowed. They have faced 3 of the top 10 rushing defenses in yards per attempt allowed. The Lions will not be any of those. The Lions have the 31st ranked pass defense in yards allowed, with 1936, and 32nd in passing yards per game allowed at 276.6. They are 26th in passer rating allowed at 101.0, 22nd in completion percentage allowed at 65.9, and 19th in YPA allowed at 7.3. They are tied for last with 18 passing TDs allowed. They have the 2nd highest ADOT for defender at 9.5, meaning teams are passing deeper on them. They are solid tacklers, with the fewest missed tackles at 15 and are 5th in YAC allowed, but the Dolphins should have some success in the air against the Lions. On the ground, the Lions are 6th in rushing yards allowed at 676 but also have the 3rd fewest attempts against them at 163. They allow 96.6 rushing yards per game and allowed 4.1 YPC. As a scoring defense, the Lions rank just ahead of Miami (25.9 PPG), allowing 25.7 PPG. Miami’s offense will have opportunities to move the ball and score.
3 REASONS FOR CONCERN
THE LIONS’ PASS RUSH IS STILL STRONG
Overall, the Lions’ defense looks like a weakness Miami could exploit. But the Lions can get after the QB very well. The Lions have 3 players with 4 or more sacks, led by standout edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. One of those players is IDL Alim McNeill and strong interior pass rushers have given Miami issues. McNeill is ESPN’s top IDL pass rusher, with a win rate of 27%. As a team, the Lions rank 3rd in PRWR at 59%. Perhaps Kadyn Proctor’s return can mitigate that problem, but after last week, I’m skeptical. The Lions as a team are third in sacks with 24 and tied for 10th in pressure percentage at 24.8%. The Lions don’t blitz at a high rate, ranking 17th at 25.7%, so most of those pressures are generated with a 4-man rush. Miami’s OL will need to play much better than last week if they want to capitalize on the weaknesses of the Lions defense.
MIAMI’S PASS RUSH FACES A TOUGH TEST
The Dolphins’ defense has slowly started to move up the rankings of pressure percentage, currently 22nd at 21.1%. They are still on the bottom of the barrel in terms of sacks, tied with KC and NYG with 9. However, they have had at least 2 sacks in 3 of the past 4 games. Chop Robinson has come on with 4 sacks and leads the league in pressure percentage individually and has the best pass rush win rate. Unfortunately, the Lions have one of the best OLs in the league at stopping pressure. They rank 7th as a team in PBWR at 54% (see the previous link). PFF ranks them 1st and highlighted that the Lions’ OL only allowed 4 pressures last week to the league leading Vikings, who get a pressure 35% of the time. Both of Detroit’s OTs are top 20 in PBWR (Paul has dropped out of the top 20). The Dolphins and Jeff Hafley may need to get creative with pressure packages and blitz plans in order to get to Jared Goff.
THE LIONS ARE A VERY DANGEROUS OFFENSE
The Dolphins have faced some scary offenses this season, but none present the total package that Detroit presents. The Chiefs have Mahomes and Walker, but don’t have elite receivers. Cincy has Burrow and elite WRs, but their run game isn’t special. The Lions have all of it. They’re 4th in the league in total yards at 2768, but the 3 teams ahead of them have played an additional game. They average 395.4 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play, tied for 5th. They are 4th in passing yards per game at 264.0 and 7th in rushing yards per game at 131.4. Goff is completing 67.7% of his passes, 5th best. He’s thrown 15 TDs and only 1 INT. Jahmyr Gibbs is 2nd in the league in attempts with 157, and 2nd in rushing yards with 773. He has 8 rushing TDs, tied with several for 3rd, and leads the league in both yards per game at 110.4 and attempts per game at 22.4. Gibbs also has 2 receiving TDs. Amon-Ra St. Brown is 5th in the league in receptions with 53, 10th in yards with 571, and tied for 6th in TDs with 5. One of those he is tied with is his teammate Jameson Williams. Williams doesn’t have the volume, with only 27 catches, but has 437 yards, meaning a 16.2 YPC average. Of WRs with more than 20 catches, only Tee Higgins, Christian Watson, Rome Odunze, and Tre Tucker have a higher YPC average. TE Sam LaPorta is tied with Williams and Gibbs in targets with 44 and has added 31 catches, 367 yards, and 3 TDs. Those 4 players are Detroit’s primary weapons. Only one other RB on the team – Sione Vaki – has any rushing attempts and all other pass catchers have 36 combined targets. The Lions know who they are, what they have, and they lean heavily on it. They are successful with it. They are 3rd in scoring offense at 29.0 PPG. The Dolphins’ defense? Yeah, I’ve covered that. They allow a ridiculous 76.9% completion percentage. They have a good YPC average at 3.8 but have allowed 100+ rushing yards in the past 4 games. Detroit is going to have their way on offense. They can prevent a pass rush and can score in a variety of ways. It is going to be ugly.
I SAID WHAT I SAID
This game could turn into a shootout. Neither team is great defensively and both offenses have weapons they can use to exploit their opponent. Miami is the less trustworthy of the two though and I would still expect the gameplan to be about running the ball, controlling the clock, and keeping the Lions offense on the sidelines. Willis is improving though and this game has the potential to be more exciting, well, offense oriented than most would anticipate. As long as Miami can keep up. Too many fruitless drives could allow this game to get ugly very quickly. Can the Dolphins defense FINALLY plant a flag and get some stops? Can the Dolphins offense and Willis carry some of this momentum into another week?
