The newest College Football Playoff rankings have been released, and yet again, we get a hodge podge of ever-changing criteria for the committee to rank the teams as they see fit.
Ohio State, Indiana and
Texas A&M remained the top three teams in the latest College Football Playoff rankings released Tuesday, while Alabama dropped six spots to No. 10 after its loss to Oklahoma.
The Crimson Tide are now behind No. 9 Notre Dame, even though they have more top-25 victories (four) than the Irish (one). Georgia, which Alabama beat in September, moved up to No. 4, while Texas Tech moved up to No. 5, Ole Miss to No. 6, Oregon to No. 7 and Oklahoma up three spots to No. 8 after its 23-21 win in Tuscaloosa.
BYU is ranked No. 11, followed by Utah at No. 12, Miami at No. 13, Vanderbilt at No. 14 and USC at No. 15. The Hurricanes jumped two spots after a 41-7 win over NC State, but they are four spots behind Notre Dame — a big point of contention among those at Miami and in the ACC. The two teams have the same 8-2 record, but Miami beat Notre Dame 27-24 to open the season.
If you want to ignore context and just slot Alabama in behind all the 1-loss teams, then fine. At least it’s something consistent. But ranking the Tide behind Notre Dame, another 2-loss team, is nonsensical. ESPN’s David Hale said it best here: The committee is just acting like the old AP poll: you leave all the teams alone, and if someone loses, you drop spots. Who cares about context?
Would you believe that Alabama, Oregon and Notre Dame have combined for five wins against other ranked teams?
It’s true.
Alabama has beaten No. 4 Georgia, No. 14 Vanderbilt, No. 20 Tennessee and No. 22 Missouri.
Notre Dame has beaten … well, only No. 15 USC.
And Oregon has a big win against … sorry, it just says “Error 404: Page Not Found.”
And yet, the Tide check in at No. 10 this week, barely on the fringe of the playoff, behind both the Ducks and the Irish.
Why? Because Alabama had the temerity to lose a game last week by two points — a game in which it missed a field goal attempt on a controversial tipped ball, nearly doubled Oklahoma’s yardage, and, based on net success rates, was clearly the unluckiest team in the country.
Now, way back when we first introduced the idea of the selection committee in 2014, one of the big differentiations from more traditional rankings, like the AP poll, was that this new group would view each week with fresh eyes. Unlike those lazy AP voters or whichever intern drew the short straw and had to submit a coach’s ballot for the Coaches Poll, the committee wouldn’t simply take last week’s rankings and adjust based on who won or lost their most recent games. The underlying data changed each week, so the committee was obliged to reevaluate, too. Teams lost games when they played well and won games when they played poorly. What once seemed like a big win (Penn State?) now looks less impressive, and what once felt like a bad loss (SMU?) is an excusable gap on the résumé. The committee, in its infinite wisdom, would account for all that by viewing each set of rankings as a wholly new endeavor.
Twelve years later, this committee seems to have decided that’s way too much effort and seems to have adopted the old AP poll process.
Alabama lost. It must be punished, and dropping six spots in the rankings is the rough equivalent of the pilot at ATL explaining it’ll just be another 20 minutes or so before a gate opens up. Everyone knows it’s not true, but the hope is the number seems reasonable enough to avoid anyone getting too upset.
Well, that kind of treatment might be OK for the likes of Miami or Virginia, but this is Alabama we’re talking about. Put some respect on the Tide’s name. Their five wins vs. SP+ top-40 opponents is more than anyone except Texas A&M. Their four wins vs. ranked foes is more than Ole Miss, Oregon and Notre Dame combined. They’ve beaten the No. 4 team in the country head-to-head — arguably the best win for any team this season.
And yet, here we are, treating Alabama as if it has been playing an ACC schedule this whole time. (Never mind that the Tide lost to an ACC team. The committee has given Week 1 the “Eternal Sunshine” treatment. Sorry, Miami.)
The whole point of the committee — the reason we’re not using computers or the AP poll or letting that manatee at Sea World who always picks the winner of the Holiday Bowl decide on the playoff teams — is so there’s some nuance to this process.
Alabama at No. 10 shows there’s no context being applied. Take last week’s rankings. Cut and paste and drop anyone who lost six spots. Now no one on the committee has to worry about missing a dinner reservation on a Tuesday night.
Of course, we all know how this goes. There are three more weeks of this, and the committee will continue to change the goalposts each week to get the playoffs they desire.
Still, Alabama has the path in front of them to make the playoffs. Even at 10th, the Tide still avoids getting auto-bumped by an ACC/G5 school. As long as the Tide doesn’t lose to Auburn, they should be in – though if Alabama makes the SEC Championship and then loses to Texas A&M, it’ll be interesting to see if the committee backpedals from their stance last year to not “punish” a team for making their conference championship.
According to the FanDuel Sportsbook, the Tide is still favored to make the playoffs, with -230 odds. Their margin was made slim, and they likely lost some home field advantages, but take care of business in Auburn, and everyone’s national nightmare continues as the Tide gets into the playoffs yet again with a chance to win it all.
