
It has been a tough season for Adley Rutschman. The catcher has played just 85 games due to a pair of oblique injuries. When he has been healthy, his production across the board represents career worsts (.227/.310/.373, nine home runs). Those personal results are part of the reason that the Orioles, as a whole, have severely underachieved in 2025. And just this past week Rutschman saw the organization sign his heir apparent behind the plate to an eight-year extension.
The Orioles long-term plans at
catcher seem quite clear. Samuel Basallo, the 21-year-old top prospect, now has a contract that runs through 2033 at least. Provided that he stays healthy and plays acceptable defense, Basallo will be playing behind the plate in Baltimore for a long time to come.
Not so long ago, Rutschman was the toast of the town. He was the first overall pick in 2019. He became the top prospect in all of baseball shortly thereafter. And when he made his MLB debut in 2022, he was an instant success, earning votes for Rookie of the Year and MVP, and then sending the rebuilding Orioles back to the playoffs in 2023 and then again in ‘24.
But the on-field results for Rutschman have fallen off over the last 12 months. He hit .207/.282/.303 in the second half of the 2024 season, although the club has maintained that he was not hurt at that time. Things have been up-and-down for him in ‘25. In between his pair of IL stints, Rutschman owns a .684 OPS and 91 OPS+ this year, far from the sort of production that many expect from him.
Naturally, the combination of Rutschman’s lagging performance and Basallo’s extension have observers assuming that the former’s time in Baltimore could be nearing an end. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend that “there will be no bigger position player on the trade block this winter than Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman.” However, as you would expect, the Orioles have left the door open for Rutschman and Basallo to co-exist.
“The fact that we have multiple great catchers is a good thing, and we’re going to be able to put guys at DH and first base and share those at-bats,” said O’s GM Mike Elias. “We have a lot of good hitters, and we’ll continue to figure out ways to include as many good players and great hitters into the lineup that we can.”
The Orioles would not need to be in a rush to move Rutschman. He has two years of arbitration remaining beyond 2025. He can expect a modest raise from the $5.5 million he made this season, but would not seem to be a non-tender candidate given his upside.
Of course, a lot could change this winter. Elias has a busy offseason ahead of him, which will include rebuilding the bullpen, shoring up the rotation, and maybe even supplementing the lineup. Would a trade of Rutschman allow them to check some of those items off their list? Or would it create even more problems?
As Elias alluded to, beyond catcher the other roles on the team impacted by the Basallo extension are first base and DH. Basallo has spent a significant amount of time at both positions during his minor league development, and the Orioles have often used Rutschman as their DH in an effort to give him “half days” while keeping his bat in the lineup.
The first base position in Baltimore is currently being shared by Ryan Mountcastle and Coby Mayo. Mountcastle, a fan favorite and slick fielder, will be entering a contract year in 2026 and could be a trade candidate if the Orioles feel comfortable in their other solutions at first. Mayo is a 23-year-old former top prospect that has scuffled as a big leaguer. There have been signs of improvement for Mayo in 2025, like his .878 OPS in July, but August has been a slog (.513 OPS). Not all growth is linear, but you would think that the Orioles need to see more consistency before they hand Mayo an everyday role.
There has been talk of Rutschman playing some first base at the big league level dating back to his debut. But to this point, it has not happened, likely the result of the Orioles roster complexion the last few years. But he did play the position in the minors, and seems athletic enough to stick over there after a spring training worth of reps.
The bigger concern with Rutschman at this point is his bat. What made him so valuable early in his career was the fact that he could play major league caliber defense behind the plate while also being a 20-30% better than league average hitter. That is a rare combination. But that bat has waned over the last year. Rutschman has been 9% below league average as a hitter in 2025. That’s still solid for a catcher. And when you pair it with good defense it continues to make him a positive contributor at the position.
But if you move that type of hitter to first base, the story changes. A 9% below league average hitter is borderline unplayable there. There are simply too many lumbering, league average hitters that a team can sign off the scrap heap and place over there for similar production at minimal cost. Unless his bat returns to where it was in 2023, Rutschman is not a viable everyday first baseman.
The Orioles could try to thread the needle here. That would see them cycle Rutschman and Basallo between the three positions throughout the week. If those two were the only catchers on the roster it would essentially buy them an additional spot on the bench. Unlike most teams, their backup catcher would not make once or twice weekly cameos at the bottom of the lineup. Instead, they would be a daily and productive part of the offense. In theory, that helps to keep both Rutschman and Basallo fresh and gives the O’s the ability to carry a specialty player, like a pinch runner or defensive whiz, that many other clubs cannot afford due to lack of roster space.
The Orioles would have to think about the opportunity cost of such a set-up. It might require that Mayo be sent back to Norfolk, or Mountcastle is traded. Perhaps those are unacceptable outcomes, and if that is the case then it won’t work. But if they go for it, Rutschman bounces back, and Basallo lives up to the hype it feels like a worthy gamble. And it feels like an aggressive, upside play that could catapult the Orioles back towards contention in 2026.