Following a fantastic 5-1 homestand, the Mariners head to Florida for a six-game road trip during the final week of play before the All-Star break. If they win both of these series, Seattle will effectively match their first-half record from last year — they were 51-45 at the break in 2025. For a season that’s felt so up and down, the M’s really aren’t in such a bad position. They definitely haven’t played up to their talent level, and they’re benefitting from a thoroughly mediocre American League,
but FanGraphs gives them the highest odds to win their division of any of the division leaders around the league.
The Marlins were the best team in baseball in the month of June, running a 20-6 record that vaulted them into the thick of the NL Wild Card race. Their pitching staff was characteristically fantastic, allowing just 3.1 runs per game last month. The real surprise has been the offense; they scored 5.1 runs per game in June and their lineup now has a 103 wRC+ on the season. That would be the highest mark in franchise history, and two of the four times the team has had a wRC+ of 99 or higher, it won the World Series. No big deal.
The Marlins don’t have a superstar anchoring their lineup. Instead, they’re benefitting from breakouts from a bunch of their young role players all at the same time. Liam Hicks, Otto Lopez, and Xavier Edwards are the core trio that have been driving the production all season long. The thing all three of them have in common is an excellent approach at the plate and elite bat-to-ball skills. They may not produce the loudest contact, but they rarely strikeout, take their walks, and maximize every ball they put in play. For the loud contact, the Marlins turn to Kyle Stowers. He enjoyed a huge breakout last year but injuries caused him to get off to a slow start this year. Since the beginning of June, he’s posted a 159 wRC+ with eight home runs.
Probable Pitchers
Max Meyer was the Marlins’ number three overall pick in the 2020 draft but has had to overcome a bunch of obstacles en route to his breakout season this year. Tommy John surgery cost him two years of development and he’s struggled with inconsistency and additional injuries since returning from that elbow surgery. He added a sweeper and a sinker to his pitch mix last year, but he’s finally found a feel for that new breaking ball. It’s become his primary pitch alongside his sharp gyro slider and that’s made all the difference.
The Marlins have essentially been using a four-man rotation for the past month after Janson Junk and Robby Snelling went down with injuries in May. Junk is finally close to returning — he completed a three-inning rehab outing on Saturday — though Miami hasn’t officially announced a starter for Wednesday’s game yet. Junk enjoyed a small breakout last year by honing his command to an elite level; his 2.9% walk rate led all starting pitchers with at least 100 IP last year. He doesn’t really possess a swing-and-miss weapon, though the development of a new changeup this year has given him something to build on.
Tyler Phillips bounced around a few organizations before landing with the Marlins as a multi-inning reliever last year. He saw a little bit of high-leverage work, but was mostly used as a fireman who could eat up a couple of innings before giving way to the setup men or closer. This year, Miami has used him more frequently as a bulk reliever operating behind an opener, though seven of his last eight outings have been traditional starts. He’s got a really weird profile: he has three bat-missing weapons in his two breaking balls and a splitter but he relies too heavily on a mediocre sinker instead of featuring those secondary pitches. The result is far too many balls in play early in the count before he can finish off batters with one of those swing-and-miss pitches.
The Big Picture:
The Rangers wound up dropping the final two games of their series against the Tigers to fall to 1.5 games back in the division; they’ll host the Angels for three games this week. The Astros managed to win their series against the Rays last weekend but dropped the first game of a series in Washington yesterday; they’re now three games back in the division and just 1.5 games back in the Wild Card race. The Athletics are on the verge of dropping entirely out of the playoff picture — they were swept by the Marlins over the weekend and head to Detroit to face the Tigers this week.
