The day has officially arrived! Selection Sunday is here!
It was, well, a wrecking ball for the final great iteration of the current Mountain West men’s basketball landscape, with Utah State leaving the conference with some extra hardware after its nine-point win over San Diego State Sunday.
We know they’re in, but what about everyone else? Let’s examine!
AUTOMATIC:
Utah State:
NET: 26
KenPom: 30
Lunardi: 8-seed
Bracket Matrix (out of 120 simulations; March 15): 120
Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 8.1
Skinny: Utah State locked in its
bid to the NCAA Tournament long ago. At this point, it came down to seeding. The Aggies won their third tournament title — first since 2019-20 — and potentially locked up a top-7 seed as a result of their dominant title run, which featured 20, 13 and nine-point wins over UNLV, Nevada and San Diego State, respectively. It’s a true shame that USU’s leaving the MW, but that’s life, I guess.
Essentially A 50-50 chance:
San Diego State:
NET: 47
KenPom: 47
Lunardi: First Four Out
Bracket Matrix: 24
Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 11
Skinny: If you ask me, I would have put San Diego State in after its two-point win over New Mexico on Friday night. But I am also not on the committee. SDSU ranks top-50 in NET, KenPom and wins above the bubble with a top-80 strength-of-schedule. Regardless, SDSU is toeing the line. The Aztecs finished with three Quad 1 wins and six Quad 2 wins. It will be a nerve-wracking Sunday — where I think VCU/Dayton in the A-10 Title game could decide it.
A likely no:
New Mexico:
NET: 46
KenPom: 50
Lunardi: First Four Out
Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 11
Skinny: Sorry, New Mexico, but Friday’s loss officially eliminated you from the conversation, most likely. I’ll be stunned if the committee gives them the benefit of the doubt. New Mexico has a pair of Quad 1 wins with six Quad 2 victories. Though it also has two Quad 3 losses to New Mexico State and Colorado State — the latter being a much better Q3 loss, but one nonetheless. At the very least, New Mexico will be one of the top seeds in the NIT if they’re not invited to The Crown.
