Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Mexico mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., Feb. 28, 2026) on Paramount+ from inside Arena CDMX in Mexico City. UFC Mexico features a flyweight main event between former 125-pound champion Brandon Moreno and once-beaten division prospect Lone’er Kavanagh, a five-round showdown with serious title implications for late 2026 and beyond.
Before we dive into the main and co-main event,
which includes the bantamweight collision between former title challenger Marlon Vera and surging 135-pound contender David Martinez, check out Andrew Richardson’s “X-Factor” breakdown for the rest of the UFC Mexico main card by clicking here. Get all the latest “Moreno vs. Kavanagh” odds and betting props courtesy of FanDuel right here. Fortunately, the civil unrest taking place in Mexico this week is not expected to affect tomorrow’s fight card.
125 lbs.: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh
Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno
Record: 23-9-2 | Age: 32 | Betting line: -205
Wins: 5 KO/TKO, 11 SUB, 7 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 8 DEC
Height: 5’7” | Reach: 70” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.89 | Striking accuracy: 44%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.62 | Striking Defense: 60%
Takedown Average: 1.47 (44% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 64%
Current Ranking: No. 6 | Last fight: Technical knockout loss to Tatsuro Taira
Lone’er Kavanagh
Record: 9-1 | Age: 26 | Betting line: +170
Wins: 4 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 5’6“ | Reach: 67” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.29 | Striking accuracy: 49%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.69 | Striking Defense: 58%
Takedown Average: 1.79 (50% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 88%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Knockout loss to Charles Johnson
Brandon Moreno is coming off a technical knockout loss to Tatsuro Taira at UFC 323 late last year, leaving him at 2-3 across his last five. It was the first time the former flyweight champion has been stopped by strikes in over 30 professional fights which means we don’t really have a precedent for his response. You can argue that Taira is one of the best flyweights in the world and losing to the 18-1 phenom is nothing to be ashamed of, just as you can argue that Moreno may be coming apart at the seams after so many brutal wars in his UFC career. On paper, this is a fight he should win, or at least control for all five rounds. I don’t want to go crazy over the short notice nature of this contest because Lone’er Kavanagh would have all the same disadvantages with a full camp.
“I still feel the motivation to do it, and my abilities are enough to be the champion again,” Moreno told UFC.com. “Right now, the competition is on fire with our new champion, new contenders, younger fighters; everything looks super-nice right now for the flyweight division. But I still feel like I’m in the conversation, I still feel like I have the abilities to fight for the title again, and I have to prove it. [Lone’er is] young; he’s the new blood of the division. He’s gonna come super-motivated. He’s coming from a loss, so that puts something inside of your soul. He’s gonna try to prove to himself and prove to the UFC he’s ready for the biggest stage, and he’s gonna try to do the opposite here in Mexico City, but I’m ready.”
Lone’er Kavanagh made a name for himself on Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in summer 2024, smoking An Tuan Ho like a Texas brisket. What followed were back-to-back decision wins over Jose Ochoa and Felipe dos Santos, along with a knockout loss to Charles Johnson in a fight that Kavanagh was winning. That loss was a major setback for Kavanagh because Johnson represented the first ranked fighter for 26 year-old Brit, who must now fight a former champion with one of the most grueling resumes in any division. In addition. Moreno is a fantastic striker with solid wrestling and can win the fight wherever it goes. I’m not sure what Kavanagh can throw at Moreno that he hasn’t already seen from Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval, among others.
“Brandon’s been around for a long time, he’s a legend,” Kavanagh told UFC.com. “He seems like a nice guy, but I want to do whatever it takes to become champ. I’ve got one mission and I’m gonna do that. Me and my team have worked really hard. I enjoy every moment in there, (so I) just go and enjoy it. I’m always looking for a finish and that’s what I’ve come here to do. It’s gonna feel amazing. I’ve said it time and time again: I’ve prayed for moments like this, I’ve prayed for opportunities like this, so when they come about, I’m taking them and I’m gonna make it work. For me, I like to take it one fight at a time. I’ll go back with the coaches after, discuss what’s next; but like I said, I wanna get to the top as quick as I can, so whatever is next, I’m willing to do.”
Moreno is the better fighter, has more experience, and has proven himself against the best in the division. The only way to pick against him is to believe “The Assassin Baby” is shot and experiencing a career tailspin. Maybe if Kavanagh had registered a strong performance against a ranked contender like the aforementioned Royval, there would exist a better argument for his chances on Saturday. Without that, I have to back Moreno by way of complete control.
Prediction: Moreno def. Kavangh by decision
135 lbs.: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez
Marlon “Chito” Vera
Record: 23-11-1 | Age: 33 | Betting line: +260
Wins: 8 KO/TKO, 10 SUB, 5 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 11 DEC
Height: 5’8“ | Reach: 70” | Stance: Switch
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.25 | Striking accuracy: 48%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 5.37 | Striking Defense: 49%
Takedown Average: 0.49 (39% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 72%
Current Ranking: No. 9 | Last fight: Split decision loss to Aiemann Zahabi
David “Black Spartan” Martinez
Record: 13-1 | Age: 27 | Betting line: -325
Wins: 10 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 3 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 5’5“ | Reach: 67” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.85 | Striking accuracy: 47%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.95 | Striking Defense: 68%
Takedown Average: 0.00 (0% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 100%
Current Ranking: No. 10 | Last fight: Unanimous decision victory over Rob Font
Marlon Vera is coming off three straight losses for the first time in his career and I’m tickled by all the experts who suggest Vera is washed and at the tail end of his run, unable to find the win column. As far as I’m concerned, losing by decision to more complete fighters is something “Chito” has done consistently throughout his career. We may have given him a part-time pedestal after knockout wins over Frankie Edgar (UFC 268) and Dominick Cruz (UFC San Diego), but looking back I think we would all agree “The Answer” and “The Dominator” were already toast by the time Vera got his hands (and the referee’s alcohol and cigarette breath) on them. Vera looks exceptional against the bottom half of the division and merely average against the best of the best. He’s a busy striker with good kicks and underrated wrestling and has proven he can absorb a frightening amount of damage and somehow walk it off.
“I’m obviously in a complicated position, it’s no secret, but at the end of the day I have my health, my strength, my job, my drive and I’m ready to go out and fight with everything I’ve got on Saturday,” Vera said at the UFC Mexico media day. “More than anything else it’s about showing myself that after 25 fights [in the UFC] I’m still here, I’m still strong, I’m still fighting at the top of the division. I’m confident that I have my strength within me, and I’m very confident that things will go my way this weekend. I understand the loyalty of a Mexican to his flag, to his fighter. I’ve already fought in almost everyone’s house. So for me, it’s just another fight.”
David Martinez tore through the ranks of Combate Global and finally earned a spot on Dana White’s “Contender Series” in late 2024. “Black Spartan” made the most of it, battering Xavier Franklin en route to a clean sweep on the judges’ scorecards. Since then, Martinez is 2-0 under the UFC banner with one “Performance of the Night” bonus and proved he can hang with the old guard after taking a decision win over Rob Font at Noche UFC last fall. Against Vera, the 27 year-old Martinez will give up three inches in both height and reach, which should be a concern against a gritty gamer like “Chito.” That said, Martinez is also the busier fighter with better defense and can make up for the distance by getting in and getting out before Vera can counter. This is only a three-round fight so Martinez may step on the gas from the jump and there’s no question his kicking game will come into play — as will Vera’s.
“I’m very nervous, but the people give me all the energy I need for this fight,” Martinez told UFC.com. “It’s the extra [motivation] that I need for a good performance. I was waiting (for this fight) because it makes sense for me. Fighting with ‘Chito’ Vera in Mexico, in my country (makes sense) because (he’s) a legend in the sport, a legend in Latin America; legend in Mexico, too. I am new blood, a new generation, and it’s a good fight for the people. I need to fight with heart because he’s a very strong opponent. Enjoy the fight; that’s it. I am ready for three, five or 10 rounds with ‘Chito’ Vera.”
Despite his underdog status, I would not be surprised if Vera won this fight. That likely depends on how much wrestling he decides to implement in his attack. Martinez is the younger, faster fighter but similar to the main event, he’s never come close to fighting the caliber of competition that Vera has faced — and often times defeated — in his 12 years under the UFC banner.
Prediction: Vera def. Martinez by decision
Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Mexico main card predictions RIGHT HERE.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Mexico news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here. For the updated and finalized “Moreno vs. Kavanagh” fight card and Paramount+ lineup click here.
