Overview
- Rating: 3.15
- 2025 Stats: 3 G, 2 IP, 9.00 ERA, 13.64 FIP, 2.500 WHIP, -0.1 bWAR
- Date of Birth: July 8, 1996
- 2025 Earnings: $825,000
- 2026 Status: 1st year arbitration
2025 Review
To put it mildly, there are many ways to build a baseball roster. The waiver process is likely one of the most overlooked in my opinion because of the sheer variance involved in selecting players. Baseball history is replete with waiver claims who move from team to team failing to make much of an impression – or sometimes make the worst kinds of impression. But every once in a while you’ll get a Ryan O’Hearn or a Kyle Nelson who seemingly find a completely different side of their game with a new
team. I sincerely doubt expectations were particularly high for Nelson when he was claimed off waivers from the Cleveland Guardians in the 2021-2022 offseason. In fact, I couldn’t even find a specific article detailing the transaction coming off a woeful 110-loss season for the D-Backs.
Regardless, the waiver claim couldn’t have come at a better time for Nelson’s career as the 2017 draftee out of UC Santa Barbara had looked positively dreadful in limited action with Cleveland during the 2021 season. In fairness, he had two five-run blowups that encompassed all of the scoring against him, but that’s little comfort when you’re trying to secure a roster spot as a young player. Those results were enough to convince Cleveland to move on from the young lefty and the D-Backs were desperate enough to give him a chance – and boy did he run with it. After failing to make the active roster out of spring training, he made his team debut early in April and morphed into a legitimately solid backend reliever, appearing in 43 games and pitching to a 2.19 ERA and 1.081 WHIP. Evidently, the Arizona pitching staff saw something in his pitch selection with Cleveland as they immediately simplified his arsenal to a two-pitch mix of a four seamer and slider. The latter was particularly effective with a 32.5 Whiff rate and a .216 BAA despite a fastball velocity that ranked in the bottom quartile of the league.
He maintained that momentum through the first half of 2023 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.183 WHIP, but completely fell apart after the break – posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.500 WHIP. Amazingly, he cracked the postseason roster on the team’s run to the World Series that season and pitched to a respectable 3.60 ERA in five games. Sadly, the 2024 season was not nearly as kind as Nelson struggled to start the year and then was placed on the 15-day IL with “shoulder inflammation” that quickly morphed into season-ending shoulder surgery. Even still, there was hope that nearly a full year of healing and rehabilitation would be enough for Nelson to return to his 2023 form if not his 2022 numbers, but it wasn’t to be. Instead, he managed to appear in just three games in the majors and spent the majority of the year with Reno and looked like a shadow of himself with an ERA north of 9.
2026 Outlook
Unsurprisingly, Nelson was outrighted to Reno after the season to make room for many of the other injured pitchers the D-Backs had been carrying. He still technically remains in the mix for a bullpen slot next season, but the outlook is pretty bleak given the bevy of relief options the team picked up at last year’s deadline and two consecutive seasons of subpar performances. He’s been counted out before though and managed to resurrect his career so who’s to say he won’t do it again? I’ll certainly be rooting for him – wherever that might be.
