The New England Patriots have not qualified for the NFL playoffs since the 2021 season, their longest such drought since the early 90s. However, all signs point toward them ending their three-year streak of missing the postseason in 2025: currently sitting at 7-2 and as the second seed in the AFC — one who will be facing a favorable schedule down the stretch — the team of head coach Mike Vrabel is as close a playoff lock as any team in football right now.
In fact, according to the playoff simulator
over at The Athletic, they have a 97% chance of qualifying for the tournament after beating the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday — an increase of 1% compared to last week. Those odds are the highest in the conference at the moment, and second only to the Philadelphia Eagles’ 98% in all of the NFL.
The Patriots also are considered 60% favorites to end up winning the AFC East for the first time since 2019, and the statistical frontrunners to end up as the top seed in the conference for the first time since 2017 (29%). There is still plenty of football left to be played that can have an impact on those two things happening, but New England returning to the playoff tournament seems like a fairly safe bet at this point in time.
AFC playoff picture after Week 9
- Indianapolis Colts (7-2)
- New England Patriots (7-2)
- Denver Broncos (7-2)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
- Buffalo Bills (6-2)
- Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3)
On the bubble: 8. Kansas City Chiefs (5-4), 9. Houston Texans (3-5), 10. Baltimore Ravens (3-5)
Not technically eliminated but let’s be real here: 11. Cincinnati Bengals (3-6), 12. Las Vegas Raiders (2-6), 13. Cleveland Browns (2-6), 14. Miami Dolphins (2-7), 15. New York Jets (1-7), 16. Tennessee Titans (1-8)
The playoff picture in the AFC saw some changes compared to last week. The top three are now all tied at 7-2, thanks to the Colts suffering a 27-20 loss to the Steelers. Meanwhile, the Chiefs dropped out of the final wild card spot again after getting beaten 28-21 by the Bills; the Jaguars, who celebrated a 30-29 overtime win in Las Vegas, moved up one position into the seventh seed.
Another team to keep an eye on in the race for the playoff spots are the Ravens. While currently at 3-5, they have won two games in a row and have gotten Lamar Jackson back from the hamstring injury he suffered in Week 4.
The NFC playoff picture, meanwhile, looks as follows:
NFC playoff picture after Week 9
- Philadelphia Eagles (6-2)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2)
- Seattle Seahawks (6-2)
- Green Bay Packers (5-2-1)
- Los Angeles Rams (6-2)
- San Francisco 49ers (6-3)
- Detroit Lions (5-2)
On the bubble: 8. Chicago Bears (5-3), 9. Carolina Panthers (5-4), 10. Minnesota Vikings (4-4), 11. Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1), 12. Arizona Cardinals (3-5), 13. Atlanta Falcons (3-5)
Not technically eliminated but let’s be real here: 14. Washington Commanders (3-6), 15. New York Giants (2-7), 16. New Orleans Saints (1-8)
The Packers’ upset loss to the Panthers dropped them from the top spot in the NFC all the way to the fourth seed. All in all, the conference continues to be more competitive that its counterpart — a fact also reflected in the odds: while there are six teams in the AFC with a playoff chance of 1% or less, the NFC has just three.
