Islam Makhachev has been dreaming of holding two championship titles in two different weight classes for several years, and now he’ll finally get the chance to realize that dream. The only downside is
that UFC is now asking its champions to relinquish their titles before moving up (or down) for a second strap.
Just ask Zhang Weili, who also turned in her title for a crack at a second crown.
Makhachev will headline UFC 322 pay-per-view (PPV) event against welterweight kingpin Jack Della Maddalena. As for Weili, she handles co-headlining duties opposite current flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko. The action gets underway this Sat. night (Nov. 25) at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
Sean Brady and Michael Morales compete for the right to challenge for the welterweight title on the UFC 322 main card, not long after Leon Edwards goes head-to-head with Carlos Prates in an important 170-pound battle. In addition, Beneil Dariush and Benoit Saint Denis get the PPV started in a lightweight banger.
Let’s talk about their chances in the UFC 322 breakdown below.
170 lbs.: Welterweight Champion Jack Della Maddalena (18-2) vs. Islam Makhachev (27-1)
Jack Della Maddalena was a promising (but somewhat unrefined) prospect when he debuted on Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in late 2021, knocking around Ange Loosa to earn a contract with the world’s preeminent combat sports promotion. The following four years would see the Aussie blossom into a viable contender and ultimately, a world champion — though he had a little help from the braindead Belal Muhammad, who actually believed he had “Canelo Hands” heading into UFC 315.
Della Maddalena is an average-sized welterweight, standing 5’11” and sporting a 73” reach fighting from a switch stance. That gives him slight advantages on the feet against his southpaw opponent, Islam Makhachev, who clocks in at 5’10” with a 70” reach. Makhachev was not the biggest lightweight on the roster but his thick frame made it hard to make the championship limit; which coupled with his overwhelming success at 155 pounds, prompted a trip up north to see what the best of the welterweight division has to offer.
It was a mistake.
The oddsmakers will tell you otherwise, with Makhachev hovering around -275 on the moneyline for most sportsbooks. I’m not sure what impressed them enough to warrant those numbers because the former champ’s resume at lightweight is good … but not great. His best wins are Charles Oliveira, Dustin Poirier, and Alex Volkanovski. Oliveira and Poirier have combined for 21 losses with 16 of those defeats coming by way of knockout or submission. Volkanovski is a featherweight wee man and nearly defeated Makhachev at UFC 284.
“This is the biggest fight in my life, biggest test in New York in Madison Square Garden,” Makhachev told reporters at the UFC 322 media day. “It’s going to be hardest test, but I’m ready. (He’s) top three. He’s one of the best who I’ve fought because he’s a champion. UFC champion means you are high-level fighter. He’s good. I saw his fight with Belal (Muhammad), with many guys. He’s good everywhere. He’s good. His striking is very good. But I saw his wrestling, his defense. If somebody takes him down, it’s not like he’s surprised. He feels good also there. I know my skills are better. He’s a good boxer. He’s a good fighter. But I know I have better skills than him.”
You can make a similar argument against Della Maddalena, who managed to wring out a washed Gilbert Burns at UFC 299 to score the Muhammad title fight. Remember, the Aussie went to consecutive split decisions against Bassil Hafez and Kevin Holland, so he was just one judge away from going nowhere — twice. Still, his gritty performance against “Remember the Name” demonstrated championship heart and I think that fight — to plagiarize Michael Bisping — was the perfect warmup for this weekend’s title defense.
“I’ve got the skills, everyone can give everyone tough fights,” Della Maddalena told reporters at the UFC 322 media day. “If he’s not expecting a tough fight, he’ll be in for a rude awakening. I still feel like I’m the underdog. I have the underdog mentality; I have everything to prove. Not much has changed. I enjoy the underdog role. Five rounds with Islam, you’ve got to expect to hit the ground at some point. He’s battle-tested, he’s been in there against some of the best guys, so expect to hit the ground. Obviously, perfect world would be to keep him away, not be able to hit the ground, but we expect a full mixed martial arts battle.”
I don’t think it’s any big secret that Makhachev is depending on his wrestling — and subsequent ground game — to win this fight. He averages three takedowns per fight but is only successful about half the time, and that was against lightweights. He’ll also need to keep that pace up for five rounds in a body that he may not be used to after competing for so long in the lower weight class. I think Della Maddalena shucks off most of the shots, outboxes Makhachev on the feet, and cruises to a sweep on the judges’ scorecards.
Prediction: Della Maddalena def. Makhachev by unanimous decision
155 lbs: Women’s Flyweight Champion Valentina “Bullet” Shevchenko (25-4-1) vs. Zhang “Magnum” Weili (26-3)
The UFC 322 co-main event will mirror its headliner as Valentina Shevchenko welcomes Zhang Weili to the flyweight mix after “Magnum” cleaned out the 115-pound division. Similarly, Shevchenko finally rid herself of Alexa Grasso which not only paved the way for Weili, but also reminded fans still hung up on the Talia Santos fight that “Bullet” may be on the decline after a long and illustrious career. The days of knocking around Jessica Eye and Lauren Murphy are no more and at age 37, it’s not unreasonable to think Shevchenko’s best days are behind her. That said, I’m sure her decision win over French phenom Manon Fiorot helped the champ regain some of her confidence heading into what bookies expect to be a very difficult fight.
Shevchenko is currently the moneyline betting favorite … but not by much.
“When I approach to my opponents and see their fights, it’s not about being impressed or something like that. It’s just cold-minded study,” Shevchenko told reporters at the UFC 322 media day. “You see what she’s good at, you see what she’s bad at, and you have to know where to be careful, where to be focused, what to avoid, and what to use to get the victory, to get the early finish. Training camp is a long time, and you have all rollercoasters when you cannot sleep during the night, you think about the fight, you’re analyzing all the fights of your opponent. It’s work; it’s hard work. But close to the fight, this is what I mean: not without emotions but with steady energy. This the most important for me, steady energy.”
I know a lot of people (myself included) were expecting Weili to get thumped by wrestling powerhouse Tatiana Suarez at UFC 312 earlier this year in Sydney but the challenger was a paltry 1-15 on takedown attempts, leaving her standup to be the deciding factor in their five-round title fight. Not surprisingly, the champ retained and that has to be a concern for Team Shevchenko, as “Bullet” has typically used her wrestling (averaging 2.6 takedowns per 15 minutes of action) to complement her striking attack. If she’s unable to get Weili grounded, or at least keep her honest with shots, then it allows the former strawweight to implement her own formidable offense.
Weili is one of the strongest fighters on the women’s roster.
“All I do every day is eat, sleep, train, and research techniques,” Weili said during her appearance on the Countdown to UFC 322 video preview. “I think my fighting style changes with each match. I’m constantly switching up my techniques, switching up my style. So my advantage is that tactically, I’m constantly showing different things. I think Valentina is very well-rounded, but I also feel I’ve become more well-rounded as well. So whether it’s wrestling, ground game, or striking, I’ll be thoroughly prepared for this fight.”
Neither fighter is unblemished. Shevchenko was subbed by Grasso and Weili was knocked out by Rose Namajunas, though I don’t think those losses represented any kind of tell regarding either fighter. For this weekend’s showdown, Shevchenko will have the better striking credentials, as well as small advantages in both height and reach. Much like the main event, “Bullet’s” success will likely depend on how well she’s able to control the distance. If Weili is unable to bully her way inside or make it ugly against the fence, she’s going to be vulnerable against the champ’s polished standup and may resign herself to chasing Shevchenko around the cage, winging wild punches in mounting frustration.
Prediction: Shevchenko def. Weili by unanimous decision
185 lbs.: Sean Brady (18-1) vs. Michael Morales (18-0)
Sean Brady deserves a lot of credit for accepting such a dangerous fight, especially when you consider he’s coming off a submission win and “Performance of the Night” bonus against former welterweight champion Leon Edwards. Prior to that, Brady cruised past former 170-pound title challenger Gilbert Burns, part of a three-fight winning streak dating back to late 2022. For my money, that’s as good as anything Shavkat Rakhmonov has done thus far in his UFC career and “Nomad” was in line for a title shot before obliterating his knee in training camp. I’m sure Brady was motivated to compete by how much competition there is at the top of the division, which includes the UFC 322 headliners as well as former champions Belal Muhammad and Kamaru Usman. It kind of feels like everyone is one fight away from the next crack at the 170-pound crown.
“He’s in the top 10,” Brady said about Morales at the UFC 322 media day. “There’s really nothing else for me. If this fight doesn’t happen, I’m probably not fighting until next year. I’m a fighter. Winning solves everything. I’m going to go out there on Saturday and whatever is next for me is next. If I get the title shot next, great. If not, I’m a fighter. I’m going to just keep fighting people until I’m undeniable and I get the shot. I don’t want to be one of those guys saying, ‘I deserve this. I deserve this.’ You earn what you get here. I’m going to go out here and earn my sh*t. I’m not rushing things any more. Whatever happens happens. My path is my path. I’m going to go out there Saturday night and do my thing.”
Michael Morales earned his spot on the UFC roster by dismantling Nikolay Veretennikov on Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in late 2021, then followed that up with six straight wins and four knockouts — three within the first round. That includes his destruction of Gilbert Burns at UFC Vegas 106 earlier this year in Las Vegas. Whether or not you were impressed by Morales over the last year or so likely depends on how you rate Burns, who turned 39 last July and entered the Morales fight in the midst of a three-fight losing streak. Prior to that, the Ecuadorian bagged and tagged Neil Magny in summer 2024, though it’s worth mentioning that Magny has been finished 10 times in 13 losses, so I’m not sure that’s anything to celebrate. Regardless, it doesn’t take away from the skills of Morales, who is just 26 years old and already ranked in the Top 10 at 170 pounds.
“I want to put on a show and I want to make it quick,“ Morales told reporters at the UFC 322 media day. “I’ve always said I want to make it quick. I want to make it clean, and I want to make it very gracious, as usual. He’s just like the other fighters that we’ve faced. He gets tired, like other fighters. He bleeds, like other fighters that I’ve faced. Everything that happens is always the same thing. Every single fight that I have, you’re seeing my evolution. I feel that every fight is an opportunity to go out there, get better, evolve as a fighter, come back better, and also be ready for everything. I’ve gotten really prepared to react properly to everything that he throws at me. You’ve seen my evolution and I get to show it in the Octagon, as well.”
Brady is shorter than Morales but more worrisome is that he gives up a whopping seven inches in reach, a troubling statistic when you consider that Morales can strike and hits with power. Working in Brady’s favor is the fact that he averages nearly four takedowns per fight and has far better grappling that Morales — he just has to get the former Barbarians brawler to the floor for that to matter. This is a tough fight to call but I’m leaning towards the 32 year-old Brady, who may end up stealing this one with a perfectly-time takedown late in the final frame.
Prediction: Brady def. Morales by unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Leon “Rocky” Edwards (22-5, 1 NC) vs. Carlos “The Nightmare” Prates (22-7)
I don’t know what version of Leon Edwards we’ll get on Sat. night and I don’t think he knows either. The psychological aspect of the former welterweight champion’s success (and failure) has been well documented, so I won’t get into it for the twentieth time. A motivated, locked-in Edwards is one of the best welterweights in the world and proved it against Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington, among others. That said, consecutive losses to Belal Muhammad and Sean Brady — who are also considered among the best of the best — were no doubt major blows to both his confidence and his title aspirations. For UFC 322, Edwards is facing an opponent he should be able to beat, though it may require him to first beat his own demons.
“I think skills-for-skills, I’m the better fighter, the better athlete,“ Edwards told reporters at the UFC 322 media day. “I’ll go out and remind him who I am. The first time he moved up was Ian (Garry), and Ian beat him. His last fight, I don’t know what Geoff Neal was doing. He was walking high-guard, flat-footed, walking in, just like that. It was there to be. He was still having success. I think he’s in for a rude awakening Saturday night. That’s the game, right? Kamaru (Usman) was on a three-fight losing streak, and they said the same thing, ‘He’s done, blah, blah, blah.’ Then, he comes out and beats (Joaquin) Buckley. Now, he’s like, ‘I want to fight for the title.’ That’s just the game that we’re in. It’s ‘what have you done for me lately?’ It is what it is.”
Carlos Prates first made a name for himself by planishing Mitch Ramirez on Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in summer 2023, a victory that returned a UFC contract and a four-fight win streak with all four victories ending by way of brutal knockout. A close decision loss to Ian Garry derailed the “Nightmare” hype train, though it quickly found its way back on the tracks with a thunderous knockout win over Geoff Neal at UFC 319. Considering what happened to the Fighting Nerds squad, now referred to as the “Fighting Frauds” because of all their losses, I would expect a very hungry Prates to be looking for a statement win to restore honor to his club and position the Brazilian for a 2026 title run, depending on what happens in the UFC 322 main event.
“He’s done, you cannot teach heart,” Prates told reporters at the UFC 322 media day. “If you, like him, already give up one time, you’re going to give up always. Leon is the kind of fighter when things start to get hard, when he sees it’s going to be hard night, he starts to give up. He doesn’t do too many things to try to change the game and he forgets about getting the win. He just tries to survive during the fight. If I get a knockout like my last fight, I will be next for the title because it’s business. UFC is just entertainment and people pay their ticket to see the kind of entertainment I bring to the Octagon. Blood, people getting knocked out and not trying to hug somebody for [the whole fight]. So, I think for the business, the next [title challenger] is Carlos Prates.”
Prates is a dangerous striker but Edwards has never been knocked out in 28 professional fights. Then again, the memory of his fifth round against Nate Diaz at UFC 263 might have a few people sweating heading into UFC 322. Prates has excellent wrestling defense and it took Ian Garry 19 takedown attempts to land four, which no doubt tipped the scales in the Irishman’s favor. I would expect a similar strategy from Edwards with much less success. “Rocky” is the betting underdog as a result of his recent struggles and I think he’s going to be fighting not to lose as opposed to fighting to win. That strategy is likely to get Edwards popped and dropped during a sloppy, rushed takedown attempt.
Prediction: Prates def. Edwards by technical knockout
155 lbs.: Beneil Dariush (23-6-1) vs. Benoit “God of War” Saint Denis (15-3)
It was just two years ago when Beneil Dariush was ranked in the Top 5 at 155 pounds and just one victory away from a lightweight title shot. Then came back-to-back knockout losses to Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan, which prompted a mandatory brain break that lasted more than a year. Recharged, Dariush returned to action with a unanimous decision victory over Renato Carneiro at UFC 317 back in June, a performance good enough to keep Dariush ranked in the Top 10. How much stock you put into his win over Carneiro may depend on how well you rate “Moicano” as a contending lightweight. He was good enough to stop Benoit Saint Denis, who fights Dariush at UFC 322.
“This is a good fight, it’s exciting,” Dariush told reporters at the UFC 322 media day. “He’s a good fighter. He’s very skilled, he’s more experienced now, and I just think stylistically, it’s a fun fight for me. Obviously, I think I’m better, so I’m excited for the fight. When I watch him, I see more of a grappler, but everybody sees him differently. I would say current culture is very short attention span, so what you see a lot of is his highlights. If you watch the entirety of his fights, clearly he’s a great grappler, very dominant in that, and I think something I need to watch out for. I think in grappling, I have an advantage for sure. He could go that route, that’s fine. I have plenty of ways to deal with that.”
The “Moicano” bout was the last time “God of War” saw the loss column. Granted, it’s only been two fights, but consecutive submission finishes over Kyle Prepolec and Mauricio Ruffy (another nail in the “Fighting Nerds” coffin) reestablished Saint Denis as a major threat in the 155-pound weight class, where the Parisian has racked up four post-fight performance bonuses, which includes two “Fight of the Night” honors. It should be noted that Saint Denis changed teams after his Carneiro loss and now trains alongside top UFC middleweight Nassourdine Imavov under famed French coach Nicolas Ott.
“I cannot wait to fight on Saturday night, because we don’t have the opportunity every day to show the world, against world-class opposition, what type of progress we have made,” Saint Denis told reporters at the UFC 322 media day. “It’s been almost a year now, like over six months that I’ve been working with an MMA head coach, and I feel like I’m really a better fighter now. I’m still the ‘seek and destroy’ guy everybody loves, but I’m putting stuff inside the recipe to get the job done against anybody and to take this fight, and take my future fights very seriously. We’re both very good grapplers, we’ve been proving it time and time again. It’s a very interesting position, because it’s a fight where tactics mean something. The one of us who imposes his will the most will be the winner of the fight.”
Both combatants are formidable offensive wrestlers and will be fighting out of the southpaw stance with Saint Denis holding a one-inch advantage in height and reach. “God of War” is also the moneyline betting favorite, likely due to the carnage he can cause with his hands. Dariush has stopping power but porous defense and five of his six losses have come by way of knockout. That’s a concerning statistic for this contest as they may cancel each other out in the wrestling, forcing the fight to play out on the feet. If that’s the case, I would expect a first-round finish from the ferocious Frenchman and perhaps another $50,000 bonus.
Prediction: Saint Denis def. Dariush by knockout
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