It’s not easy being a Houston Astros fan these days. The expression that comes to mind is “leaking oil.” I have certainly spent any amount of time on this site bellyaching about the offense and nothing has changed in that department. More than one of us have complained about injuries and the way they have been handled this year. Nothing is changing in that department either.
One of the great things about baseball is that there is almost always a silver lining. Sure, there are games where you lose
12-0, kick the ball around, and every pitcher gives up runs. However, in most games at least something positive happens. As I write this, I don’t know the outcome of the season. Even if they do advance to the postseason, things aren’t looking good for them to move far once they get there. Yet, there is one silver lining that has cropped up in recent weeks. I present to you the beloved Player A and Player B test.
- Player A: 7 games, 20.1 INN, 0.89 ERA, 22 K, 7 BB, 0 HR
- Player B: 7 games, 21.0 INN, 2.57 ERA, 25 K, 6 BB, 6 HR
I will just tell you that one of those two players is A.J. Blubaugh. The other one is Hunter Brown in his first season. The two players are practically identical except for the dingers. Blubaugh has gotten that under control over his last several outings and therefore has taken off. Before we get too carried away, we should take a look at what Hunter Brown did in year two.
- Year Two: 31 games, 155.2 INN, 5.09 ERA, 178 K, 55 BB, 26 HR, 4.37 FIP
These aren’t great numbers to be sure, but we have to consider a few things. First, like Brown, Blubaugh would not be expected to be a top of the rotation starter right out of the gate. The club already has Brown, and presumably Spencer Arrighetti, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr, and J.P. France. This doesn’t even include the Jason Alexanders and Colton Gordons of the world.
It also doesn’t include any middle tier free agents the club may end up adding. When we add the fact that Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski could come back before the end of the season then we can see that Blubaugh is not the key to 2026 success, but just another cog. It seems reasonable that he might be the equal to 2023 Hunter Brown. I certainly wouldn’t predict 2025 Hunter Brown for any pitcher, but a reasonable fourth or fifth starter seems reasonable and that is the best news we could get from this September swoon.
A special comment
I don’t do this very often, but I thought I should respond publicly to commentary on one of my last pieces. I wrote a piece essentially saying goodbye to Framber Valdez. I cited his recent struggles, but also the behavior he had been exhibiting. A couple of commenters took me to task for that characterization. I hate to say I told you so, but I think all of us have to acknowledge the truth. Valdez is on balance a good pitcher, but the mental issues are glaring at this point.
I don’t expect perfection from anyone. I like everyone else have had bad days at the office. I’ve had days where I wanted to hit the rewind button and start over. Sometimes it is because of a mental mistake I have made. Sometimes it is because circumstances beyond my control turned it into a bad day. The expectation each and every day is that we give it are all and hopefully learn from our mistakes.
The same is true of our athletes. I am disappointed and sometimes frustrated with bad plate appearances, outings where pitchers just don’t have it, or when fielders kick the occasional ball. We have seen Jose Altuve run into more than a few outs for instance. I’ve never doubted that any of those guys were giving it their all. I have to admit that I’ve had doubts about Framber. The last start with Cesar Salazar was glaring in that department, but in most of the last several outings there has been that one inning where things go sideways. He just seems to spiral and can’t get it back.
Five out of six or seven innings that are brilliant is probably more than a Colton Gordon or Jason Alexander will give you over a full season. However, neither of those guys is in line to get 30 million per season in AAV. If I pay you that kind of money I expect mental toughness. I expect you to be a leader. I don’t expect you to be the kind of player that needs other players to talk him down when things go sideways.
I firmly believe in the concept of opportunity costs. The question is not whether you are a better team without a particular player. The question is whether you are a better team with the players you can bring in with the money you would have paid him. If you can afford 30 million in AAV for Framber then you can afford at least much of that for other players. Maybe you sign a lesser starter and a high leverage reliever. Maybe you sign two high leverage relievers. Maybe you sign a lesser starter and another bat to make your bench deeper. Obviously, that’s a different conversation, but it is never as easy as Framber or no Framber. It is more about Framber vs. what you can afford with the money you would have paid Framber. Given what I have seen over the last month plus, I want to look behind door number two.
