With Duke and UConn falling, the opportunity was there for the Illini on Saturday night to put pressure on the top seed line. A win probably wouldn’t have moved the Illini up, but it would have made the margin very thin between themselves and UConn, in particular.
Unfortunately, everything seemed to go wrong as it often does in East Lansing. An overtime loss to a top-12 team does not hurt much, and beating the brakes off Northwestern bolstered the Illini’s efficiency stats going into the weekend,
so Illinois only falls 1-spot on the overall seed line, behind Houston to the second two-seed. Despite the loss, everything is still very much in play down the stretch of the Big Ten season: a Big Ten title, a 1-seed, the Chicago-St. Louis-Indianapolis path. I expect this team to become stronger from the adversity they faced and get start up a new winning streak.
There won’t be many games where Illinois loses the foul battle, the rebound battle, and Keaton Wagler goes 2-for-16, yet the Illini still managing to push the Spartans to the limit bodes well for their chances in March.
West (San Jose)
- Arizona (San Diego)
- Nebraska (Oklahoma City)
- Florida (Tampa Bay)
- Gonzaga (Portland)
- North Carolina
- Saint Louis
- Utah State
- Villanova
- Saint Mary’s
- Indiana
- UCLA
- Tulsa
- Utah Valley
- Troy
- Portland State
- Long Island/Bethune Cookman
Notes on the Region:
Gonzaga’s shocking loss to Portland this past week drops them down to a 4-seed, which means the Tommy Lloyd-Mark Few reunion tour can happen one round earlier than previously expected. As has been previously mentioned in this space though, a second-round matchup in California for the local-ish team Saint Mary’s that pits a plethora of international stars against each other could be a stumbling point for a Wildcat team that is rolling through the regular season but has had its share of struggles in March under Tommy Lloyd.
Due to the logjam of Big Ten teams in the 2-7-10-15 quadrant, a potential Big Ten rematch could happen in the second round here, as long as Indiana and Nebraska don’t meet in the Big Ten Tournament. In the first game, Indiana fell apart at home and blew a large first half lead. The winner gets a Florida team that has rounded into shape in SEC play and looks like the repeat title contender that was expected going into the season.
Midwest (Chicago)
- Michigan (Buffalo)
- Iowa State (St. Louis)
- Michigan State (Buffalo)
- Virginia (Tampa Bay)
- Alabama
- Tennessee
- Louisville
- Texas A&M
- Santa Clara
- Wisconsin
- Miami (Ohio)
- Liberty
- Stephen F. Austin
- Wright State
- East Tennessee State
- NJIT/Morgan State
Notes on the Region:
In spite of their big win against Illinois on Saturday, the Spartans fall below Purdue on the seed line due to their shocking midweek loss to Minnesota. As the fifth Big Ten team in the top 16, they are able to be placed in any region, and the possible rivalry game with Michigan with a Final Four on the line is in play.
I could see this bracket being a spot for Cinderella upsets. Miami (Ohio) is still undefeated and has very beatable teams in front of them in Tennessee and Michigan State. Also, Brad Underwood’s first Division I coaching spot looks to make a return to the NCAA Tournament after winning a big game over McNeese the past week. The Lumberjacks could give Virginia a taste of their own medicine, with a conservative but stingy defensive approach.
East (Washington D.C.)
- Duke (Greenville)
- Illinois (St. Louis)
- Kansas (Portland)
- Vanderbilt (Greenville)
- Saint John’s
- Arkansas
- NC State
- UCF
- Auburn
- Georgia
- USC/Miami (Florida)
- Belmont
- High Point
- North Dakota State
- Austin Peay
- Tennessee-Martin
Notes on the Region:
A quarter of the bracket is made up of Tennessee based teams in the East. If Belmont can upset Saint John’s, it sets up the all-Nashville battle between Vanderbilt and Belmont. Vanderbilt has fallen back to Earth after the slow start, while Belmont is currently rolling through the Missouri Valley after tripping out of the gates.
For Illinois, a first-round matchup with Austin Peay will bring back old nightmares for older Illini fans. Still, this team should be able to impeach the Governors without too much trouble. In the second round, NC State has Tre Holloman, who fans will recall is another one of those physical, defensive guards from Michigan State. Will Wade is in his first year on the job after working his way back to the high major level after getting fired at LSU due to paying players before that was kosher.
Once the Illini make the second weekend, it’s Keaton Wagler’s chance to outperform two of the premier prospects in next year’s draft head-to-head, Darryn Peterson and Kansas and then Cam Boozer and Duke. Bill Self, Tre White, John Scheyer and Dame Sarr are antagonists worth mentioning as well.
South (Houston)
- UConn (Philadelphia)
- Houston (Oklahoma City)
- Purdue (Philadelphia)
- Texas Tech (San Diego)
- Clemson
- BYU
- Iowa
- Kentucky
- SMU
- San Diego State
- New Mexico/Texas
- Yale
- Hawaii
- UNC-Wilmington
- Navy
- Merrimack
Notes on the Region:
UConn holds on to the 1-seed by a slim margin over Houston, but it really does not matter: Houston still gets essentially a homecourt at the Rockets’ arena during the second weekend. UConn against Kentucky in the second round would be a high-powered battle, as Kentucky bought a roster that should be able to compete with top seeds.
Purdue and BYU in the second round is a matchup of teams not playing well at all right now. Purdue survived Oregon at home over the weekend, which is perhaps an even bigger red flag than any of the losses in their three-game losing streak.
First Four Out: Mizzou, Ohio State, VCU, Oklahoma State
Next Four Out: Virginia Tech, Cal, Nevada, Seton Hall
Bids By Conference:
Big Ten: 10
SEC: 10
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 3
WCC: 3
MWC: 3
