If the Los Angeles Rams beat the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night, it will keep L.A. in the 5-seed and potentially push up Atlanta’s 2026 first round draft pick slightly. However, the Rams could still beat the Falcons and slip to the 6-seed if Sean McVay then decides to sit his starters against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 18 and lose.
Even if the Rams beat the Falcons, they will become the six-seed at the end of the season and probably go to Philadelphia if McVay sits starters and concedes a loss
to the Cardinals and that’s regardless of whether or not the 49ers or Seahawks win the NFC West.
As far as the playoff standings go, it’s actually smarter to lose to the Falcons and beat the Cardinals — because of division records — than it is to beat the Falcons and then rest starters against Arizona and lose. If the Rams lose to the Falcons but beat the Cardinals, they could still be the 5-seed as long as the 49ers beat the Seahawks; if the Seahawks beat the 49ers in that scenario, L.A. will be the six-seed.
If McVay simply decides to rest starters in Week 18 because he doesn’t care about seeds, there’s no point in trying to beat the Falcons except for one: It might improve the 2026 draft pick going to L.A..
Keyword: Might.
And barely.
If the Falcons lose, they go to 6-10 and their SOS opponents will go over .500, potentially to the point where the draft pick doesn’t even move from 11 after tonight.
If the Falcons win, they go to 7-9 and the draft pick might slip from 11 to 12.
But the end result still depends on whether or not the Falcons beat the Saints in Week 18 anyway. If the Falcons beat the Saints in Week 18, they’re still going to end up around the middle of the first round. If the Falcons lose to the Saints, they’re still going to end up around the edge of the 11-13 range.
There’s little movement at play based on Monday’s game against the Rams.
But if the Rams beat the Falcons and then lose to the Cardinals, then they’re going to face the Eagles or Bears in the playoffs. (Chicago plays the Lions, Philadelphia plays the Commanders; the Bears will be the 2-seed as long as they win or the Eagles lose.)
The Rams went to Philadelphia this season and lost on a blocked FG at the end of the game.
The Rams also went to Carolina and lost by a field goal this season.
It’s hard to believe that the Eagles are that much better than the Panthers right now. (We’ll see if Tampa Bay, losers of 7 of the last 8, win the NFC South.)
The Eagles beat the Bills this week, but also only had 11 first downs. It could be a great matchup for the Rams.
But if you don’t think that the Rams should rest starters against the Falcons because it matters in the playoff seedings: It doesn’t matter. If playoff seeds is what matters to you, then the only game that matters is how the Rams do against the Cardinals, which is also when fans think the Rams should rest starters.
That logic is kind of backwards. Unfortunately, the schedule isn’t backwards.
Next week’s game matters more for the playoffs. Monday’s game matters for the draft—barely.
