The New York Yankees, even with their current absences, are a formidable squad. It’s with that established that we can open ourselves to acknowledging some undeniable truths about who this team is, how it got here—and a particularly significant sequence of games that began during their road trip to end May with a couple of series against the Royals and Athletics.
As of the start of play on Saturday, only four teams in the big leagues have won at least 45 games, listed in the following order of descending
winning percentage: Dodgers, Braves, Yankees and Brewers. What first stands out about this list of top contenders is that only one of them plays in the American League, but that’s not necessarily what we’re here to talk about. The focus lies on the Yankees’ path towards an outstanding record being unlike the other three.
While the Dodgers, Brewers, and Braves are averaging 28.3 wins against teams over .500, the Yankees have only 14 of those, and in fact, have a losing record (14-15) against said teams. The lowest single total out of the other three belongs to the Dodgers with 26 wins and 17 losses. While there is a simple math problem in that the Yankees have faced fewer teams with a winning record than these other three, partially due to being in the AL, they also feature the worst winning percentage of the bunch in those games.
Currently, the Yankees are as depleted as they have been all season long, especially offensively, with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Trent Grisham all hurt. And even on the pitching staff, while one might be glad of Gerrit Cole’s return, not having Max Fried is a blow that would hurt even the strongest of clubs. The initial hit of not having Judge didn’t generate a stumble, but inferior production is inevitable in the long run with the Yankee captain out.
If we go back to that series against the Royals at the end of May and move forward all the way through the end of an early homestand in July with the Twins coming to town, the Yankees will have faced only two teams currently with a record above .500 in a span of 12 series. Those two series were against the Guardians and one versus the White Sox in which the Yankees, to their credit, won six out of nine games.
Part of what helps drive a team’s record in a given season, particularly such an established contender as the Yankees are, is timing. Here, we see an instance where timing seems to be working in their favor. This is not about their contending status being a byproduct of an easy schedule; it’s not about them even needing this easy run to make it through this injury crisis unscathed. It just so happens that when they’re at their weakest or nearing that, from a roster talent standpoint, the Yankees got the ideal schedule to minimize the damage. In fact, if we want to get picky about reasons for such stark splits, the Yankees’ struggles in one-run games may help justify their issues against quality opposition, having lost eight of 20 in games decided by one run.
Following this series against the Reds at home, the Yankees will play the Tigers, Red Sox, Tigers again, and then the Twins before they come up against the Rays in Tampa. These are 13 straight games against opponents under .500; the only way this would be an easier run was if it had come before Tarik Skubal’s return to the mound. This stretch may just help the Yankees retain control of the AL East ahead of their next matchup with the Rays. Again, this isn’t to say that the Yankees are in pole position because they got lucky. They’ve just seemingly timed their worst injuries at the best possible stretch in their schedule.
