The Miami Hurricanes will enter the 2026 season without four star players from the 2025 National Championship Game runner-up season. The ‘Canes lose Rueben Bain Jr, Akheem Mesidor, Francis Mauigoa
and Keionte Scott from last year’s impressive CFB Playoff run.On offense, Miami has to replace four of five starting OL, the QB in Beck, and two of the ‘Canes three top receivers in CJ Daniels and Keelan Marion. In ‘25, Malachi Toney averaged 11.1 yards per catch, Daniels 13.1, and Marion 11.1. The trio
combined to catch 19 TD passes last year.
On defense Miami has to replace the production of Bain, Mesidor, and Scott who combined for 36 tackles for loss, 25 sacks, seven forced fumbles, three INT’s, two TD’s and six PBU’s.
Explosive Plays and PFF
Teams need to create and limit explosive plays, much like offenses need to create space and defenses need to eliminate space. Explosive plays are defined as 12+ yards per run and 16+ yards per pass at the college level. Per Pro Football Focus, explosive plays account for 40-60% of an offense’s total yards.
Drives with at least one explosive play score 60-63% of the time, compared to roughly 13-15% without, with explosive plays adding ~3.57 points per occurrence. Drives with one explosive play lead to 3.1-3.4 points, while those without an explosive play see their points drop to 0.59-0.7 points, ie NONE. One single explosive play can raise your expected points from nearly zero to five points on a single drive.
Per PFF, when teams allow massive amounts of explosive passing plays in a season (16% or more), they focus heavily on the defensive back position in the next draft. Miami did that same thing via the portal by bringing in Scott, Jakobe Thomas, Xavier Lucas and others into the DB room in ‘25. That led to a 41% improvement in points allowed per drive, and only 4.5 yards per play allowed which was 10th in FBS.
In the NFL, allowing an explosive play rate of 16% or higher is a near guarantee to miss the playoffs as 87% of those squads fail to make the post-season. See: The Miami Hurricanes in 2024 for details about CFB teams allowing explosive plays at a high clip.
According to PFF data, when it comes to winning- teams that win the weekly “explosive play margin” (more chunk plays gained vs. allowed) have a roughly 72-100% chance of winning, particularly in college where teams post a 397-72 record when putting up more explosive plays than their opponent.
For reference in ‘25, Indiana finished 15th in FBS in yards per play and 4th in points per play. Miami finished 30th in YPP and PPP last season. Indiana finished 2nd in SP+ offense per Bill Connelly, while Miami’s offense was 22nd in SP+.
1991 vs 2025
Looking back at the 1991 Hurricanes where Mario Cristobal was a starting OL the ‘Canes had three main backs in Larry Jones, Stephen McGuire and Martin Patton. McGuire averaged 4.9 yards per carry while Jones averaged 5.0 and Patton 3.2. The trio combined for 16 TD’s and the offense was 15th nationally in scoring with 33.1 PPG.
While the backs were typically two ‘thumpers’ and a scat back in the Dennis Erickson one-back offense, the QB was expected to take the top off in between tunnel screens to the slot WR. In ‘91, QB Gino Torretta (the 1992 Heisman Trophy winner) averaged almost 16 yards per completion and 8.3 yards per attempt.
That’s more yards per completion than Beck last season (11), Cam Ward in 2024 (14) and Darian Mensah for Duke in ‘25 (11.9). If Mark Fletcher (5.5 yards per carry), Marty Brown (3.9ypc) and Girard Pringle (6.0ypc) are two thumpers and a scat back (they combined for 23 TD’s) then someone has to take the top off the defense.
The ‘Canes 2025 offense scored 30.9 PPG which was good for 35th in FBS. That’s less PPG in 2025 than in a much slower paced CFB landscape in 1991.
So who will make the explosive plays for Miami in 2026? In 1991 the WR trio of Lamar Thomas, Horace Copeland and Kevin Williams were all explosive players. Thomas averaged 16 yards per catch, Copeland 19.1ypc, and Williams 15.7ypc. The trio combined to score 13 TD’s in Erickson’s offense.
The Hoosiers had the no.2 offense per SP+ and their WR’s averaged 13.6 (Omar Cooper Jr.), 12.8 (Elijah Sarratt) and 20 (Charlie Becker) yards per catch last season with 32 TD catches between them.
As a comparison at OSU Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate and Brandon Innis averaged 14.3, 17.2 and 7.5 yards per catch, respectively; with 24 combined TD catches. OSU’s offense was 21st in PPG with 33.4.
A year ago with Beck behind center Miami lacked explosive offensive plays. The ‘Canes trio of WR’s were Malachi Toney, CJ Daniels and Keelan Marion. Toney and Marion both averaged 11.1 yards per catch while Daniels hit the 13.1 ypc mark. The trio combined for 19 TD’s.
The 2026 Season
The 2026 grouping with Mensah at QB will need to hit on some deep shots in order to keep opposing defenses off of an OL that will more than likely start a freshman RT and a bunch of other guys attempting to figure each other out early on. We already know that Toney is more than just any old WR, he can run, pass and block with the best of them.
Vandrevius Jacobs, Cooper Barkate and Cam Vaughn are three portal WR’s looking to add to what Josh Moore and Toney have to offer Mensah out wide. Jacobs is the deep threat at 17 yards per catch, while Vaughn averaged 15.5, Moore 12, and Barkate 15.4.
On defense the ‘havoc plays’ of Bain, Mesidor and Scott must be replaced by transfer edge Damon Wilson II, DB Omar Thornton and an emerging Ahmad Moten. Wilson logged 9.5 TFL’s, nine sacks, two PBU’s, and one INT last season for Missouri. Thornton had eight TFL’s, two sacks, four forced fumbles, one PBU and one INT. Moten picked up nine TFL’s and 4.5 sacks in a late emergence against the nation’s best OL’s.
Can you expect to replace the havoc and explosive play squashing ability of Mesidor, Bain and Scott? Probably not. I don’t care who you bring in via the portal those three were quite the trio. But can you expect much more from Mensah, Barkate and Vaughn alongside Toney? I think so. Even with a new OL the offense should be more explosive and Bryce Fitzgerald and the guys should limit explosives jumping to the ‘24 level, even without all the havoc up front.
