It wasn’t noticeable at the start of spring games but as the first couple weeks went on, the at-bats were adding up to a change in the hitting approach for the Friars. There has been a lot less chasing outside the zone for many of the regulars. Even the minor league depth players have had more quality at-bats.
It might surprise many to hear that catcher Freddy Fermin has more loud contact than any other regular currently on the San Diego Padres roster. Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. left too
early to be a significant part of this discussion, but they have both distinguished themselves with the Dominican Republic World Baseball Classic team, making frequent loud contact while away.
Not only are these guys hitting the ball and hitting it hard, but they are also barreling up the ball much earlier than in previous spring progressions. Fermin is hitting .421/.421/.684 with a 1.105 OPS. He’s a bit of an outlier in that he has not walked at all in his 19 at-bats, but he has only struck out twice and has eight RBI.
Jake Cronenworth, in his 21 at-bats, is hitting .375/.444/.625 with a 1.069 OPS. He has one strikeout and three walks while hitting his homer to the opposite field for the first time in his career. The numbers aren’t reliable in the spring; we all know of players that killed it in Spring Training and were never heard from again. But the thing that stands out as you look at the regular lineup players, as well as most of the bench competitors, is that there are quality at-bats all over the team.
On base skills
1B/DH Gavin Sheets has struggled so far and is only hitting .200 but his OBP is .429 with eight walks in his 20 at-bats. Of all the regulars, the lowest OBP on the team is OF Ramon Laureano, who is hitting .386 but with a .318 OBP due to only having one walk and 10 strikeouts in his 21 at-bats. The other free swinger on the team, Jackson Merrill, is hitting .296 with a .345 OBP.
If you are curious, new Padre 1B/DH/OF Nick Castellanos has more walks than strikeouts (5/4) and is hitting .280 with a .419 OBP.
Bench competition
For those competing for bench/depth positions, the lowest OBP is Mason McCoy at .241 and he is followed by Bryce Johnson at .303. The best all-around performance so far belongs to Ty France with 27 at-bats and a .370/.433/.519 line with four doubles and five RBI. He has walked twice and struck out four times.
France is closely followed by Jose Miranda, who has tattooed the ball all spring. His batting average is slightly less at .367 with a .441 OBP and .600 slug. His OPS is the best of those in competition for a bench spot with 1.041 which is second on the team to, wait for it, Cronenworth at 1.069.
The eye test
I haven’t gone deep diving into strike zone analysis for the spring at-bats, but my eyes tell me the Padres, throughout the line up, have been much more disciplined this spring in sticking to the pitches in the zone. That might not be as true for the free-swingers like Merrill, Tatis Jr. and Laureano. But even they have shown more ability to lay off pitches out of the zone.
Driving the pitches that they are swinging at is also a highlight of the spring so far. Everyone except Sheets has at least one double, Cronenworth and Laureano have a triple each. Some of the long-ball numbers can be accounted for due to conditions in Arizona, especially when the wind is blowing out, but the exit velocities show the players are hitting the ball hard and with frequency.
Exit Velocity trends
Machado and Tatis Jr. frequently have the highest EV numbers on the team, Tatis had a 110.2 mph drive before he left for the WBC. In their absence, Campusano has a 108.4 mph hit, Sheets has one at 109 mph and Fermin has a 107.6 mph missile. Lots of outs and hits register mid to high 90s and low 100s consistently.
Offensive approach is the key
The sample size is small, and it is Arizona, but I like what I am seeing with this offense in the spring. The ballparks will be bigger with different conditions once the season begins in earnest. The cold early spring air through much of the country will definitely affect the end result.
While I hate to mention it, the Padres would do well to follow the example of the evil empire to the North. They don’t chase out of the zone often. They make solid, barrel on the ball contact in the zone. If new hitting coach Steven Souza Jr. has achieved anything in this young baseball season, it seems to be that the Padres are spitting on more pitches outside the zone and concentrating on driving the ball all over the field.
The K-rates are down, and extra-base hits are up. The frequency of working at-bats into long ordeals for the pitcher, often seeing eight to 12 pitch at-bats, is really noticeable. Being pesky, fouling off borderline pitches, taking walks and barreling up pitches in the zone is the offense I have been hoping to see for this team. They have been pretty successful at it this spring. Time will tell if they can carry that over into the regular season.
I really hope so.
