Last week ATS: 6-7 (2-5 National, 4-2 B1G)
Season ATS: 44-47 (14-24 National, 30-23 B1G)
Unfortunately last week played out a lot like most of the season has up to this point: Good at my Big Ten picks, bad at national picks, a couple games missing by a point or two, and the overall record for the week either breaking even or being a game or two below .500.
Things could be a lot worse. At least we aren’t going 3-10 or 4-9. One big week could switch flip our record and change our outlook on the season. Until then we just have to keep plugging along.
National Games
No. 14 Iowa State v. Cincinnati (-1.5)
– 12:00 p.m. ET – ESPN2
Why is Cincinnati favored here? The Bearcats wins have come against Bowling Green, Northwestern State, and a mediocre Kansas team. That makes them a favorite over a tough Iowa State team? It certainly can’t be because of the atmosphere at Nippert Stadium at noon on a Saturday.
Iowa State is looking like a serious threat to make the College Football Playoff. The Cyclones could even take a loss to another strong Big 12 team and possibly make it. Rocco Becht has experience, as well as a nice combo behind him at running back Abu Sama III and Carsen Hansen.
The Bearcats just aren’t quite as good as Iowa State and it’ll show on Saturday.
Iowa State 28, Cincinnati 17
No. 16 Vanderbilt v. No. 10 Alabama (-10.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC
I feel like I’m the only one who is sick of Diego Pavia’s schtick. Using his mom as a betting chip with some creepy comedian, petitioning the NCAA for a 38th year of eligibility, getting mentored by Johnny Manziel — It all sounds like a recipe for disaster.
You have to imagine this game has been circled on Kalen DeBoer’s calendar for a while. It’s a pretty similar scenario to last season. Beat Georgia and then take on Vanderbilt the next week. The biggest difference is the Crimson Tide get the Commodores in Tuscaloosa this season. Ty Simpson is playing to well for me to side with Pavia here.
Alabama 38, Vanderbilt 20
No. 3 Miami (FL) (-4.5) v. No. 18 Florida State – 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC
How funny would it be if Miami did all this early season work and then loses two of their last three regular season games to teams they should beat and miss out on the playoff?
I don’t think that happens this year because the Hurricanes are too talented to let lightning strike twice. Although, I wouldn’t put it past Mario Cristobal with some of the late game/season management we have seen from him in the past.
Was last week a fluke or was the win over Alabama to start the season the fluke? Even though he is mobile, I think quarterback Thomas Castellanos could be in for a long night against some of the pass rushers Miami will send his way.
Oh yeah, did anyone check to make sure the Florida State wide receiver is alright after he had to have been trampled by the Virginia fans storming the field?
Miami (FL) 31, Florida State 21
B1G Games
Wisconsin v. No. 20 Michigan (-16.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – FOX
It always hurts being on the same side as Michigan, especially with a former Buckeye on the opposite sideline. Unfortunately it seems like Luke Fickell has lost the plot at Wisconsin. The Badgers have looked awful in losses to Alabama and Maryland. I don’t think a bye week is going to magically fix everything.
As much as we like to make fun of how much Bryce Underwood is making from his NIL deal, he has done what has been expected of him early on in his college career. The Wolverines still have a tough defense to crack, and I don’t think the Wisconsin offense have the tools for the job.
Michigan 34, Wisconsin 14
No. 7 Penn State (-25.5) v. UCLA – 3:30 p.m. ET – CBS
Normally this would be a prime spot to fade Penn State. An emotional double overtime loss to Oregon, followed by a trip across the country to take on UCLA. This isn’t a normal season for the Bruins, though.
After firing DeShaun Foster a few weeks ago, UCLA has also moved on from both their offensive and defensive coordinator. If you could give the Bruins the option to skip the rest of the season, they’d probably take it since the program is a mess.
With UCLA in disarray, Penn State will likely take out their frustrations on the Bruins and try to get back on track ahead of their showdown with Ohio State at the beginning on November.
Penn State 45, UCLA 13
Minnesota v. No. 1 Ohio State (-23.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – NBC
It’s hard to find anything to be upset about when it comes to Ohio State’s start to the season. 4-0 and the Buckeyes still haven’t allowed any of their opponents to reach double figures. On offense, Julian Sayin is leading the country in completion percentage, while Bo Jackson has emerged as the top running back in Columbus.
Minnesota is a gritty team. Last week they erased a 14-0 deficit to defeat Rutgers 31-28. Unfortunately for the Golden Gophers, Ohio State isn’t Rutgers. Redshirt freshman quarterback Drake Lindsey will be under fire throughout the game. The status of running back Darius Taylor is up in the air after Taylor has missed the last two games due to injury.
This will be the only time the Buckeyes will play at home in October, and it will help this game will be at night, so we shouldn’t see the sleepy start that we sometimes see for noon games. Minnesota has some nice players, but as long as Ohio State acts accordingly they should cover the spread.
Ohio State 38, Minnesota 10
Rapid Fire Picks
National
No. 9 Texas (-6.5) v. Florida – 3:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
Texas 27, Florida 14
Boise State v. No. 21 Notre Dame (-20.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – NBC
Notre Dame 41, Boise State 24
No. 11 Texas Tech (-11.5) v. Houston – 7:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
Texas Tech 34, Houston 20
Mississippi State v. No. 6 Texas A&M (-14.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – SEC Network
Texas A&M 33, Mississippi State 23
B1G
No. 22 Illinois (-9.5) v. Purdue – 12:00 p.m. ET – BTN
Illinois 34, Purdue 20
Washington (-6.5) v. Maryland – 3:30 p.m. ET – BTN
Washington 27, Maryland 24
UL-Monroe v. Northwestern (-10.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – BTN
Northwestern 23, UL-Monroe 10
Michigan State v. Nebraska (-11.5) – 4:00 p.m. ET – FS1
Nebraska 31, Michigan State 24
