As we do every week in this space, we’re looking at some stats from the Green Bay Packers game, courtesy of SumerSports.
Offense
Last week saw the Packers needing to lean heavy into 11 personnel and the passing game, due to getting behind early and also lacking any ability to run. This week saw them with a little more balance, both in terms of personnel usage and in run/pass ratio. This week, the Packers were in 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) on just 47.3% of their snaps (down from 81% last week). They were in 12
personnel on 23.6% and 13 personnel on 29.1% of their snaps.
That 13 personnel rate (1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR) was their highest usage of that personnel package this year, and it was also their best passing package. When operating out of 13 personnel, Jordan Love was 5/5 for 76 yards for an EPA per Play of +1.04 (basically, they generated a little more than 1 point every time they passed out of this grouping). They had a 100% Success Rate when passing out of 13 personnel. It was also their best running group (11 attempts, 52 yards, -0.09 EPA per Play). I’m excited to dig into the film on that and see what they were doing when in that personnel group.
On the run/pass ratio, the Packers passed 56.4% of the time and ran 43.6% of the time. That’s a far cry from the 85.7% pass rate we saw against the Falcons. The pass game (+0.14 EPA per Play) far outperformed the run game (-0.35). While an 85.7% pass rate is a bit extreme, I’d certainly like to see the pass rate be a little closer to 65% rather than 55%.
Love was still getting the ball out quickly (he averaged 2.17 seconds to throw, a full 0.5 seconds below the NFL average), with an EPA per Play of +0.14. That’s far and away his best passing performance of the year. Before this, his best performance was in the Vikings game in Week 1, where he posted an EPA per Play of -0.02.
For the first time this year, Love took 0 sacks. There were some plays he’d like to have back and there were (once again) a couple drops, but this is the most competent the Packers offense has looked all year.
Love also looked good against the blitz. That’s been an issue all year (mainly because, against the line through the first 3 weeks, a blitz meant an automatic pressure), but Love did well this week. Against the blitz, he was 7/9 for 62 yards (+0.14 EPA per Play).
It was also an encouraging performance from Tucker Kraft. He caught 6 of his 7 targets for 42 yards and a TD, good for +0.79 EPA per Reception. He had an ADOT (Average Depth of Target) of 0.57 yards and he averaged 6.83 yards after the catch. He wasn’t asked to stretch the field very much (his targets were on Hitches and Quick Outs), but when he got the ball in his hands he got upfield and was looking to make something happen. He still doesn’t look like the Tucker Kraft we were used to seeing last season, but this was the first time all year we really got a good glimpse of that guy. Overall, Kraft had a 22.6% target share. He was a heavy target in the Red Zone (42.9% target share) and saw a decent amount of looks on early downs (27.3% early down target share).
Kraft also had an EPA per Play of +1.93 on rush attempts, thanks to his successful 4th down sneak.
Here’s what the running game numbers looked like from Gap Outcomes, by running back.
Chris Brooks:
Kaleb Johnson:
MarShawn Lloyd:
Brooks is their most limited runner in terms of burst/wiggle, but, if the line can block it up, he’s been their most effective because he can read his blocks and hit the hole.
Let’s take a quick look at the guards before moving to the other side of the ball. Last week, Jacob Monk (LG) allowed 8.3% pressure rate, with a 22.2% pressure rate against blitz, 5.3% pressure rate vs stunts. On the other side, Jager Burton (RG) allowed an 18.2 pressure rate, with an 11.1% pressure rate against the blitz and 20.8% vs stunts.
This week, we had Travis Glover (RG) giving up a 3.3% pressure rate, 0% rate against the blitz, 0% against stunts. New Packer Laken Tomlinson gave up a 3.3% pressure rate, 11.1% against the blitz, 0% against stunts.
I’m not going to sit here and proclaim that the interior of the line has been fixed, but, against a pretty good Tampa Bay front, Glover and Tomlinson performed well.
Defense
The Packers lived in Nickel in this game, posting a 90.2% Nickel rate (30.38% above the NFL average). That seems high, until you look and see they were just matching the Bucs’ personnel. The Bucs were in 11 personnel on 90.2% of their snaps. When the Bucs brought out a 3rd WR, the Packers were matching in Nickel.
The Packers defense was zone heavy, but not quite as much as they had been. They played Man Coverage on 39.4% of their snaps, their highest rate of the year (their previous high was 13.3% against the Vikings). The Man snaps were primarily Cover 1 (man-to-man across the board, with a single-high safety), but they also ran 2 snaps of Cover 0 (all-out blitz with man coverage).
This was also the highest blitz rate the Packers had all year. They blitzed the Bucs on 47.22% of their snaps, 17.09% above NFL average. Their previous high was 34.69% against the Jets. The defense has been a bit uneven at times (which is putting it a bit nicely), but I have been quite happy with Gannon’s blitz approach. Coming into the year, Gannon was known as a defensive coordinator who didn’t blitz very often. This year, he has dialed it up more than we’ve seen in his career, and has leaned heavier into the blitz depending on the gameplan. Seeing that type of flexibility in attack has been really fun.
Lukas Van Ness had a nice performance, but not quite as impactful as we had been seeing. He notched 2 solo tackles, 2 assisted tackles and 0 tackles for loss. I’d like to see his pressure rate higher (his 8.7% pressure rate was 3.23% below NFL average), but that was due to a quick release and screen-heavy plan from the Bucs. His Average Time to Pressure was 2.36 seconds, right around NFL average.
Albums listened to: Alex G – Camp Miasma Soundtrack; Poppy Ackroyd – Liminal
