The Blue Jays will enjoy their fifth winning season in six years, but the team has yet to win a playoff series since 2016. This year, they have combined their core hitters with a talented veteran pitching staff that has given the team the best record in the American League, on pace for their best season since they won it all in 1993.
Toronto Blue Jays (89-64) vs. Kansas City Royals (76-77) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Blue Jays: 4.95 runs scored/game (5th in MLB), 4.41 runs allowed/game (19th)
Royals: 3.85 runs scored/game (28th), 3.97 runs allowed/game (4th)
George Springer has bounced back from two underwhelming seasons to post a 158 wRC+, fourth-best in baseball. He has been red-hot since the All-Star break, hitting .360/.444/.640 in the second half. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a hard-hit rate of 41.6 percent, seventh-best in baseball. Ernie Clement is hitting .339/.379/.484 in his last 20 games. Tyler Heineman is hitting .405/.458/.571 against left-handers. Ty France is a career .377/.456/.623 with eight home runs in 36 games against the Royals, and a .473 (26-for-55) hitter at Kauffman Stadium. He is 12-for-28 (.429) with a home run in his career against Michael Wacha.
Alejandro Kirk is mired in a 5-for-31 (.161) slump. Daulton Varsho hits just .195/.261/.195 against lefties. But he’s a career .353 hitter in ten games at Kauffman Stadium. Davis Schneider is hitting .198/.305/.352 on the road. Andrés Giménez is hitting just .184/.243/.265 in 32 games since coming off the Injured List. Shortstop Bo Bichette will miss the rest of the regular season with an injury, but hopes to return in the postseason. Free agent slugger Anthony Santander has been out since May with a left shoulder injury, but is rehabbing and could return as soon as this weekend. He has been limited to 50 games, and has hit just .179/.273/.304 with six home runs.
Clement, Giménez, and Varsho are some of the best defenders in baseball by Outs Above Average. Catcher Alejandro Kirk has a 21 percent caught-stealing rate. Only two teams have fewer steals than the Blue Jays.
The Friday game will be broadcast exclusively on Apple TV+. Future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer will make his 11th career start at Kauffman Stadium, where he has a 5-2 record and a 2.97 ERA. His velocity is actually up this year to 93 mph at age 41 , but his slider is still his best pitch. He’s given up 14 runs in 19.1 innings over his last four starts. Salvador Perez is a career .353 (12-for-34) with three home runs against him.
Shane Bieber has proved to be a shrewd mid-season pickup for the Blue Jays, as the team has won four of his five starts. The 2020 Cy Young winner has been limited to just seven starts over the last two seasons due to injury, but was acquired from the Guardians in July and has been a boost to the rotation. Salvy has three home runs against him in just 27 career plate appearances, while Bobby Witt Jr. is just 1-for-12 (.083) against him.
Rookie Trey Yesavage was a first-round pick last year out of East Carolina, but skyrocketed through the minors. He posted a 3.12 ERA with 160 strikeouts in 98 innings across four levels of the minors. He throws a four-seamer at 94.6 mph, plus a slider and a sinker that netted a 79 percent whiff rate in his first start due to a deceptive delivery and release point.
The Blue Jays’ bullpen has a 3.97 ERA, 13th-lowest in baseball, but they have the third-highest strikeout rate. Jeff Hoffman is tied for fourth in baseball with 31 saves, although he seven blown saves as well. Brendon Little has a 58.8 percent groundball rate, ninth-highest in baseball. Seranthony Domínguez has allowed a pull rate of 48.2 percent, ninth-highest in baseball. Yariel Rodriguez has the ninth-highest soft-hit rate at 21.7 percent. Louis Varland has a 6.05 ERA in 19.1 innings since being acquired from the Twins.
The Blue Jays are one of the top teams in baseball, who can potentially clinch a playoff spot, a division title, and home-field advantage for the postseason this weekend. This series means less to the Royals, who are mathematically still in the hunt, but realistically have been out of it for a week. Still, they can look at some young players and finish strong, and the Jays will give them a great challenge.
